Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Tropical Storm Philippe Prompts Watches for Antigua and Barbuda

A potential risk caused by Tropical Storm Philippe prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Antigua and Barbuda on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 59.1°W which put it about 155 miles (245 km) east of Guadeloupe. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Antigua and Barbuda.

Tropical Storm Philippe did not move much on Sunday. The circulation around Philippe also did not change much on Sunday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea continued to produce northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear is likely to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Philippe on Monday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to Antigua and Barbuda on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Rina weakened to a tropical depression northeast of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Rina was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

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Tropical Storm Philippe Drifts East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe drifted over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 57.0°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to drift slowly east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe did not change much on Saturday. An upper level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region that will become marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear during the first half of Sunday. The upper level winds could weaken later on Sunday. If the upper level winds weaken, then the strong wind shear will decrease and Tropical Storm Philippe could start to intensify.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could move a little closer to the Northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Rina weakened northeast of Tropical Storm Philippe. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 52.8°W which put it about 760 miles (1220 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe Meanders East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe meandered over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 480 miles (775 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina moved around formed the northeastern periphery of Tropical Storm Philippe on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 48.8°W which put it about 945 miles (1520 km) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulations around Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina continued to interact on Friday. Philippe and Rina revolved around a point between the centers of the two tropical storms in a motion called the Fujiwhara effect. An upper level trough over the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda produced westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was adding to the westerly winds blowing toward the top of Rina’ circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough east of Bermuda will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Saturday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will continue on Saturday. Philippe and Rina will continue their counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe Stalls East of the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Rina formed over the Atlantic Ocean about 550 miles (890 km) east of Tropical Storm Philippe on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 46.6°W which put it about 1080 miles (1740 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Rina was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe stalled east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday when the circulation around Philippe began to interact with the circulation around Tropical Storm Rina. Philippe also weakened a little on Thursday. An upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The low level center of Tropical Storm Philippe was large and weak. The wind shear was also causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Philippe was also affecting Tropical Storm Rina. Upper level divergence from Philippe was causing vertical wind shear in Tropical Storm Rina. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Rina to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Rina were in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Rina’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Rina consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the eastern part of Rina’s circulation. Winds in the western side of Rina were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Friday.

The interaction between Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina will increase on Friday. Philippe and Rina are likely to start a counterclockwise loop around a point in between the two tropical storms. The situation when two tropical cyclones loop around a point between them is sometimes called the Fujiwhara effect. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will move slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Rina is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Philippe Moves Toward Northern Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Philippe moved toward the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 54.5°W which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Wednesday. An upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to keep Tropical Storm Philippe from intensifying on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could approach the Northern Leeward Islands during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Philippe Weakens a Little

Tropical Storm Philippe weakened a little on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 730 miles (1180 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands . Philippe was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Philippe were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken a little more on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Churns West

Tropical Storm Philippe churned westward over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 47.8°W which put it about 1005 miles (1620 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Philippe was affected by strong vertical wind shear on Monday. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Philippe to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Philippe and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The distribution of wind speeds was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (275 km) in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 60 miles in the western side of Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Storm Philippe to weaken on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe could be northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands by the end of the week.

Tropical Storm Philippe Strengthens East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 42.5°W which put it about 1275 miles (2055 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Philippe was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Philippe strengthened on Sunday, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Philippe’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Philippe consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level low over the central Atlantic Ocean was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Philippe’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Philippe’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through a region marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level low over the central Atlantic will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Philippe could intensify a little on Monday, if the vertical wind shear does not get any stronger. If the wind shear does increase, then Philippe is likely to weaken.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Philippe toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Philippe will pass far to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern North Carolina, Virginia

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain to eastern North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 77.0°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain as it moved inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning. The circulation around Ophelia was large. Tropical Storm Opehila was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Canada to produce strong winds northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ophelia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the other parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia.

A weather station in Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A weather station in Morehead City, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 near Wrightsville Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h).

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will move inland over eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware.

The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Ophelia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Develops South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Storm Ophelia developed south of Cape Hatteras on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras as Tropical Storm Ophelia on Friday afternoon. Drier air was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of Ophelia’s circulation. The drier air was making the distribution of thunderstorms asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ophelia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms north and west of the center of Ophelia’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ophelia was large, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ophelia will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ophelia’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. The drier air in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in those regions. Tropical Storm Ophelia could intensify during the next 12 hours, while it is over the Gulf Stream.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (83 km/h)

Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.