Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Lashes Western Oman

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu lashed western Oman late on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday as it approached the coast of western Oman.  The circulation contracted around a small circular eye.  A well formed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 31.9.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of causing regional major damage.

Winds near the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will be capable of causing major damage near the coast of western Oman.  The rainbands revolving around the core will cause minor damage within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Mekunu.  Strong winds near and east of the center of circulation will be capable of causing a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) at the coast.  Strong thunderstorms will drop heavy rain, especially in places where the air flows up slopes.  Significant flash flooding will be possible in normally arid locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Nears Western Oman

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu neared western Oman late on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

There was a small eye at the center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of producing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours while it approaches the coast.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could strengthen a little more before it approaches the coast.  When Tropical Cyclone Mekunu approaches the Arabian Peninsula, it will begin to pull drier air into the western side of the circulation.  Mekunu will start to weaken when the drier air reaches the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is moving around the western end of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will steer Mekunu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will make landfall near the border between Oman and Yemen in 12 to 18 hours.  Mekunu will produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force near where the center makes landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur east and west of the core.  It will drop locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be likely.  There could also be a storm surge of 6 to 10 feet (2 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Passes By Socotra Island

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed by Socotra Island on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed east of Socotra Island on Wednesday.  However, several strong rainbands in the western half of the tropical cyclone did pass over the island.  Those bands dropped locally heavy rain and they may have produced winds to tropical storm force,  Rain was still falling over parts of the island and the potential for flooding continued.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified quickly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The northeastern part of the ring was the weakest section of the eyewall.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The strongest rainbands were south and west of the center of circulation,  Bands northeast of the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  Thunderstorms near the core of Mekunu were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.9.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce weak southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Makunu could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The upper level ridge steered Tropical Cyclone Mekunu toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.   On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could approach the coast of western Oman and eastern Yemen within 48 hours.  Mekunu will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Intensifies Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 55.9°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Socotra Island.  Mekunu was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu became much better organized on Tuesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and eye was evident at the center of circulation on microwave satellite images.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The strongest rainbands were in the western and northern parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate some vertical shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge was steering Tropical Cyclone Mekunu toward the northwest.  A general motion toward the north-northwest is forecast for the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will approach Socotra Island within 24 hours.  The strongest part of Mekunu will pass over Socotra Island.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could approach the coast of western Oman and eastern Yemen in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone 02A Develops Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 57.1°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southeast of Socotra Island.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A center of circulation began to consolidate within a broader area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  Thunderstorms formed west and north of the developing center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms west of the center began to organize into several bands and the circulation began to exhibit the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms near the core of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the developing tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is east of the tropical cyclone.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward of the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone 02A will continue to organize on Tuesday.  It will strengthen and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the middle of the week.

The ridge to the east of Tropical Cyclone 02A is steering the cyclone toward the northwest.  A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A will pass west of Socotra Island.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to that location.  Tropical Cyclone 02A could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in three or four days.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar Brings Wind and Rain to Djibouti, Western Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Sagar brought wind and rain to Djibouti and Western Somalia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar was centered at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 43.4°E which put it about 100 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Djibouti City, Djibouti.  Sagar was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia near Bullaxaar on Saturday.  Sagar was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.  It moving south of an upper level ridge which was generating easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation, which was probably due to the vertical wind shear.

Thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Sagar may have produced wind gusts to near hurricane force when Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia.  The gusts were capable of causing minor wind damage.  Sagar may have generated a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet (1.2 to 2.4 meters) near where the center made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Sagar was dropping heavy rain on parts of extreme western Somalia and Djibouti.  The heavy rain was capable of producing flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar has a small circulation and Sagar will likely weaken quickly as moves inland into drier air over eastern Africa.  Even though it will weaken quickly, Sagar could also drop heavy heavy over parts of eastern Ethiopia and flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar Strengthens Over Western Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Sagar strengthened over the western Gulf of Aden on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) south of Aden, Yemen.  Sagar was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A small eye appeared at the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar on microwave satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  There was a small break on the southeast side of the ring of storms.  A short, broad band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the core of the circulation.  A longer, thinner rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern periphery of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Sagar were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 12 to 18 hours.  Sagar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C to 30°C.  It is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is generating easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are producing some vertical wind shear.  The shear may be the reason why most of the stronger thunderstorms are in the western half of the circulation.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent further strengthening.  Tropical Cyclone Sagar could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Much drier air is over eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.  When Tropical Cyclone Sagar nears the coast of western Somalia, it will pull some of the drier air into the circulation and that will cause Sagar to start to weaken.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Sagar toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Sagar could make landfall on the coast of western Somalia in 18 to 24 hours.  Sagar will be capable of causing minor wind damage.  It could produce a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  The core of Tropical Cyclone Sagar could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of western Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar Strengthens Over Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Sagar (01A) strengthened over the Gulf of Aden on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 47.8°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Aden, Yemen.  Sagar was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Sagar became more organized on Thursday.  An eyelike feature appeared at the center of circulation.  A partial ring of thunderstorms wrapped around the northeast, northwest and southwest quadrants of the incipient eye.  There was a break in the ring of storms southeast of the center.  The strongest winds were occurring in the partial ring.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring north and west of the center of circulation.  Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Sagar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C to 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Sagar is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear and they are part of the reason why the strong storm are occurring mainly in the western half of the circulation.  The wind shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification and Tropical Cyclone Sagar is likely to continue to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Much drier air is over the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia.  When Sagar approaches the coast of the Gulf of Aden, it will start to pull drier air into the circulation and that will cause Sagar to weaken.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Sagar toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Sagar could be south of Aden in about 36 hours.  Sagar could approach the coast of western Somalia and Djibouti in two or three days.  Tropical Cyclone Sagar will bring gusty winds and it could cause some storm surge at the coast.  The greater risk is for locally heavy rain near the coast of Yemen and over north Somalia.  The rain could be heavy enough to produce flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 01A Forms Over the Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 48.6°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) east of Aden, Yemen.  It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms that moved from the Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden.  Several bands of stronger thunderstorms formed west of the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in these bands.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  The storms west of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone 01A is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds may be part of the reason why the stronger thunderstorms are occurring on the western side of the center  The winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 01A is likely to strengthen as long as it stays over the Gulf of Aden and it could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane.  Much drier air is over the Arabian Peninsula and over eastern Africa.  Tropical Cyclone 01A will likely weaken when it moves closer to land and starts to pull drier air into the circulation.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 01A toward the west.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and to steer the tropical cyclone a little to the south of west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 01A is expected to remain over the Gulf of Aden for several more days.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rain to coastal portions of Yemen and northern parts of Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan Forms East of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan formed over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garcia was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 1190 miles (1925 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Flamboyan was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed inside a large areas of showers and thunderstorms east of Diego Garcia on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan organized steadily during the day.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Flamboyan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  Flamboyan will move through an area where there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  Flamboyan will turn more toward the south when it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will move farther away from Cocos Island and it will pass well southeast of Diego Garcia.