Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies To Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 91.1°E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Marian. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian.

The area of the strongest winds expanded as Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified rapidly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Marian was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.3.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 12 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian could intensify during the next 12 hours. Marian will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes early next week. The vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Tropical Cyclone Marian will weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. After Marian moves around the western end of the high pressure system, the tropical cyclone will start to move toward the southeast..

Tropical Cyclone Marian Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Marian intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 93.0°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marian continued to exhibit more organization on Saturday. An eye was visible at the center of Marian at times on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge. The upper level winds will be weak during the next 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the western part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island. Marian could recurve back toward Australia next week after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Marian Strengthens South of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Marian strengthened south of Cocos Island on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marian was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 96.4°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) south of Cocos Island. Marian was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the South Indian Ocean south of Cocos Island exhibited much more organization on Friday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marian. Marian organized quickly during the past few hours. An eye was beginning to appear at the center of Marian on infrared satellite images. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the developing eyewall. Thunderstorms near the center of Marian generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Marian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) in the northern half of Marian.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Marian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds speeds will be similar at different levels in the atmosphere and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Marian will intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marian will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system. The high will steer Marian toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marian will move farther away from Cocos Island.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Guambe strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 36.4°E which put it about 260 miles (415 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe continued to intensify over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Friday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was present at the center of Guambe. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Guambe.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe was relatively small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Guambe. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the western side of the circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Guambe was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Guambe to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. The center of Guambe is forecast to remain over the Mozambique Channel, but rainbands on the western side of the tropical cyclone could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Intensifies East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified east of Mozambique on Thursday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 37.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east of Inhambane, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday night. A small circular eye at the center of Guambe was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 6 hours. Guambe could intensify rapidly for a period of time and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. Rainbands on the western side of Guambe could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Forms over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Weakens Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened southeast of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1000 miles (1610 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level low east of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds which blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Faraji on Friday. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and the winds blew the tops of many of the thunderstorms around Faraji. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Faraji consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. However, the upper level low east of Madagascar will continue to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will continue to cause the strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji churned southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 84.7°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

After intensification to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday, Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened gradually during the past 48 hours. Even though Faraji weakened, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained very well organized. A small circular eye was apparent on infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Faraji. The approaching trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause the wind vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will likely cause Faraji to weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 82.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1350 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Faraji. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that rings of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Faraji. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Faraji was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.2.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will likely continue to be the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Faraji to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.