Category Archives: Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Neville Passes South of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Neville passed south of the Cocos Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 93.1°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) south-southwest of the Cocos, Islands. Neville was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville was weakening as it moved over the South Indian Ocean south of the Cocos Islands on Saturday. The distributions of thunderstorms and clouds in Neville was becoming asymmetrical. Some drier air appeared to be entering the northeastern part of Neville’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Neville’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Neville’s circulation. Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Neville will weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will remain far southeast of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Spins Southeast of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Neville was spinning over the South Indian Ocean southeast of the Cocos Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 98.7°E which put it about 445 miles (720 km) south-southeast of the Cocos, Islands. Neville was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Neville’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Storms near the center of Neville generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Neville was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Neville was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.8.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Neville’s circulation from the west. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Neville’s circulation. Those winds will also cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Neville is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will pass south of the Cocos Islands later today.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Neville rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of the Cocos Islands on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 104.3°E which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) east-southeast of the Cocos, Islands. Neville was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday morning. A small circular eye was at the center of Neville’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Storms near the center of Neville generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Neville was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Neville was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.3.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Neville will intensify during the next 24 hours. Neville could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will pass south of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Neville intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 106.1°E which put it about 565 miles (915 km) west-northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Neville was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Neville rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Neville’s circulation and an eye was visible on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville. Storms near the center of Neville generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Neville was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Neville’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Neville will intensify during the next 36 hours. Neville could intensify rapidly at times and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will move farther away from Australia. Neville could pass south of the Cocos Islands on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Neville Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Neville developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 109.2°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Neville was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Wednesday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Neville. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Neville exhibited more organization on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Neville’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Neville generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Neville.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Neville will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Neville will intensify during the next 24 hours. Neville could intensify rapidly at times and it is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Neville will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Neville toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Neville will move farther away from Australia. Neville could pass south of the Cocos Islands in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Develops Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Megan developed over the Gulf of Carpentaria early on Saturday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened early on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Megan. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was well organized. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Megan could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was spinning over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 114.0°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Moves Away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo moved away from Mozambique on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 28.9°S and longitude 36.6°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away from Mozambique on Wednesday. An upper level trough over southern Africa produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Filipo’s circulation. Those winds also caused strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Bands in the northern part of Filipo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Filipo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. However, the upper level trough over southern Africa will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of strong vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Filipo to complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Filipo toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Filipo will pass south of Madagascar in 24 hours. Filipo is likely to be an extratropical cyclone when it passes south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Moves Across Eastern Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo moved across eastern Mozambique on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 33.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Inhambane, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the south-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain as it moved over eastern Mozambique on Tuesday. There were reports of damage in Vilankulo. Although Tropical Cyclone Filipo weakened as it moved across eastern Mozambique, it continued to exhibit a well organized circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Filipo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Filipo’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move back over the Southwest Indian Ocean in a few hours. Filipo will continue to cause strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain until it moves away from Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves back over the Southwest Indian Ocean. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge west of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Filipo is likely to intensify after the center moves back over the Southwest Indian Ocean. Filipo could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo brought wind and rain to Mozambique on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 35.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Machanga, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened to near the threshold for a hurricane/typhoon as it approached the coast of Mozambique on Monday night. A small circular eye appeared intermittently on microwave satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Filipo. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) in the southern half of Filipo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Filipo.

Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Filipo were bringing wind and rain to parts of eastern Mozambique on Monday night. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were occurring along the portion of the coast from Divinhe to Vilankulo. Heavy rain was falling near Machanga, Mambone and Macovane. A storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) was possible along the coast from Divinhe to Vilankulo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move inland near Machanga and Mambone during the next few hours. The center of Filipo’s circulation will pass west of Inhambane and Maputo. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will weaken gradually when it moves inland. However, Filipo will continue to cause strong winds and to drop locally heavy rain over eastern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo Strengthens Near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened as it near the coast of Mozambique on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 37.0°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Beira, Mozambique. Filipo was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo strengthened over the Mozambique Channel as it approached the coast of Mozambique on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Filipo’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Filipo.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Filipo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Filipo will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Filipo toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Filipo will approach the coast of Mozambique in 12 hours. The center of Filipo’s circulation is likely to make landfall between Divinhe and Vilankulo. Tropical Cyclone Filipo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Mozambique. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Filipo could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Mozambique.