Category Archives: Western North Pacific

Western Pacific Typhoons and Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Talim Making Landfall on Kyushu

Tropical Storm Talim made landfall on Kyushu near Yamagawa, Japan on Saturday night.  Heavy rain was already falling over parts of Kyushu and Shikoku.  At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Talim was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 130.2°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Kagoshima, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the east-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Storm Talim was a powerful typhoon several days ago.  Talim was nearly stationary over the same part of the Pacific Ocean for nearly 48 hours.  Talim’s winds mixed cooler water to the surface and it weakened to a tropical storm.  Tropical Storm still has a well organized circulation and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  Drier air wrapped around the southern half of the circulation.  Most of the thunderstorms and heavy rain are occurring in the northern half of the circulation.

An upper level trough over eastern Asia is steering Tropical Storm Talim toward the east-northeast.  The trough should steer Talim more toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Talim will move over southern Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu.  Talim will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain when it moves across those areas.  The heavy rain could produce flash flooding in some locations.

Typhoon Doksuri Near Landfall in Vietnam, Talim Threatens Japan

Typhoon Doksuri neared a landfall in Vietnam on Thursday night while Typhoon Talim posed a threat to Japan.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri intensified rapidly as approached the coast of Vietnam on Thursday.  An eye appeared that the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out over 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Doksuri will make landfall on the coast of Vietnam between Ky Anh and Hoa Lac in a few hours.  Doksuri will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding.   Winds blowing toward the coast will cause a significant storm surge of ten feet (three meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Heavy rain will fall over parts of Laos and Thailand when Doksuri moves farther inland.

Typhoon Talim weakened as it stalled southwest of Japan on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 500 miles (800 km) southwest of Nagasaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Talim appeared to pull drier air in around the southern side of the circulation.  Little movement of Typhoon Talim may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  The drier and and cooler water caused many of the thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  An upper level trough will approach Talim from the west and the trough will start to steer Talim toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu within 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim Strengthens West of Okinawa, Doksuri Moves Closer to Vietnam

Powerful Typhoon Talim strengthened west of Okinawa on Wednesday, while Typhoon Doksuri moved closer toward Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) west of Okinawa.  Talim was moving toward north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Talim evolved into a large powerful typhoon on Wednesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Talim.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Talim.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were producing upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak over the core of Talim, but there are stronger westerly winds north of the typhoon.  Talim could strengthen some more during the next 24 hours.  However, the stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear on Friday and the typhoon will start to weaken when that happens.

Typhoon Talim is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the typhoon toward the north-northwest.  Typhoon Talim will move north on Thursday as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  The westerly winds north of Talim will turn the typhoon toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation of Doksuri became much more organized on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolved around the core of Doksuri.  Thunderstorms round the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Doksuri will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over eastern Asia is producing easterly winds which are causing some vertical wind shear over Doksuri.  The wind shear may slow intensification, but it will not stop it.

The ridge north of Doksuri is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Doksuri is forecast to pass south of Hainan Island.  Typhoon Doksuri could approach the coast of Vietnam in a little over 24 hours.  Doksuri could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Typhoon Talim Nears Ryuku Islands

Typhoon Talim neared the Ryukyu Islands late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Talim on Tuesday.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The entire circulation became much more circular and symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Talim is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not as strong as the were 24 hours ago and the vertical wind shear has decreased.  Typhoon Talim is likely to intensify further during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Talim is expected to turn toward the north as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  In 24 to 48 hours Talim will begin to be affected by westerly winds from the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Talim to turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim will move across the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  It looks like the center and strongest part of Typhoon Talim will move between Ishigaki and Okinawa.  Typhoon Talim will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The core of Typhoon Talim is forecast to pass west of Okinawa before it turns northeast toward the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere in Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Doksuri was slowly intensifying as it moved west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Doksuri became more organized on Tuesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center or circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence.  Tropical Storm Doksuri will be moving through a favorable environment.  Doksuri will move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and through and area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is likely to intensify and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to continue moving  toward the west.  On its anticipated track Doksuri could be near Hainan Island in 48 hours and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.

Typhoon Talim Develops East of Taiwan

Typhoon Talim developed east of Taiwan on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of the circulation of Typhoon Talim became more organized on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eyewall appeared to be forming.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the center of the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is generating easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds are generating moderate wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but they are not strong enough to prevent Typhoon Talim from getting stronger.

A subtropical ridge north of Talim is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan within 36 to 48 hours.  Talim could be a stronger typhoon by the time it reaches that area.  In two or three days Typhoon Talim will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and the typhoon will turn toward the northeast.

Elsewhere in the Western North Pacific Tropical Depression 21W formed east of the Philippines.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 21W was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  It was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (64 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The depression will bring locally heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines and it could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Mawar Nears Landfall in China

Tropical Storm Mawar moved closer to a landfall in China on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mawar was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Hong Kong.  Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Mawar is very asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms are located south of the center of circulation.  A primary rainband is just south of the center of circulation and there are several other bands farther south of the center.  Recent visible satellite images suggest that the eastern end of the primary rainband could be trying to wrap around the center.  Thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southwest of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge centered over China is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear.  Those winds may also be the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Mawar could intensify before it makes landfall in China.

Tropical Storm Mawar is being steered slowly toward the west-northwest by a ridge near Japan.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mawar will make landfall in China east of Hong Kong in 12 to 18 hours.  Mawar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Guangdong province.  The rain could contribute to flooding in some locations.  Mawar is likely to weaken steadily after it makes landfall.

Typhoon Sanvu Brings Wind and Rain to Chichi Jima

Typhoon Sanvu is bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to Chichi JIma, Japan.  Sanvu strengthened during the past several days while it meandered around Chichi Jima.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center to Typhoon Sanvu was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 142.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north-northwest of Chichi Jima, Japan.  Sanvu was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Sanvu has been slowly improving.  An eye developed at the center of Sanvu as the typhoon moved slowly over Chichi Jima.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  The strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A primary band of thunderstorms wraps around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing outside the core of Typhoon Sanvu.  Most of the bands are developing in the southern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Sanvu are producing upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the north of the typhoon.

Typhoon Sanvu will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Sanvu is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but there is not much vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sanvu is likely to continue to strengthen for another 24 to 48 hours.  Eventually, Sanvu will move over colder water and the wind shear will increase.  It will start to weaken when that happens.

Sanvu is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which steering the typhoon toward the north.  When Typhoon Sanvu moves farther north, it will be steered by an upper level trough over Japan.  Southwesterly winds will steer Sanvu toward the northeast at a faster speed in a day or two.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sanvu would stay east of Tokyo, but it could affect the northernmost islands of Japan in four or five days.  Conditions in Chichi Jima should improve slowly as Typhoon Sanvu moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Sanvu Forms Over Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Sanvu formed over the northern Marianas on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sanvu was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 146.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northeast of Agrihan.  Sanvu was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Sanvu developed when a distinct center of circulation formed within a much larger area of low pressure over the northern Marianas.  The circulation of Sanvu is still in the early stages of consolidation around the center.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  The bands in the northern half of the circulation were weaker.  The showers and thunderstorms south of the center were beginning to generate some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Sanvu will be moving through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Sanvu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  Sanvu is under the axis of a narrow upper level ridge and the winds over the southern half of the circulation are fairly weak.  There is little vertical wind shear over that part of the tropical storm.  An upper level trough north of the ridge is producing stronger winds over that half of the circulation.  The stronger winds may be responsible for the lack of strong rainbands in the northern half of Sanvu.  The trough is forecast to move east and the shear in that region should decrease.  When the shear decreases Sanvu could intensify at a faster rate and it is forecast to become a typhoon in two or three days.

The trough is currently steering Tropical Storm Sanvu slowly toward the north-northeast.  When the trough moves away to the east a ridge if forecast to steer Sanvu more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sanvu will gradually move away from the northern Marianas and the weather should improve in that region.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Makes Landfall Near Macau

Tropical Storm Pakhar sped across the South China Sea and made landfall on the coast of China near Macau.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Hong Kong.  Pakhar was moving toward the northwest at 27 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain as it quickly moves inland over southern China.  The wind and rain will hinder the efforts in the area to recover from Typhoon Hato.  Fortunately, Tropical Storm Pakhar is a fairly small storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.  The small size of Pakhar and its rapid rate of movement will limit the impact of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Pakhar should spin down fairly quickly as it rapidly moves inland.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Pakhar formed east of Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Pakhar was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar.  The circulation of Pakhar is still in the early organizational stages.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Pakhar is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the circulation.  Those easterly winds are probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The easterly winds in the upper levels are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pakhar will weaken when it moves across Luzon.  After Pakhar moves out over the South China Sea, it will move back over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The forecast suggests that there could be less vertical wind shear at that time and Pakhar has a chance to intensify into a typhoon when it moves away from the Philippines.

Pakhar is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  Pakhar is forecast to turn more toward the northwest when it crosses Luzon.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pakhar will reach the coast of Luzon near Baler in 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest and it could make another landfall in China west of Hong Kong in about three days.  However, there is more uncertainty about the future track of Pakhar after the tropical storm exits Luzon.

Tropical Storm Pakhar could bring heavy rain to Luzon and cause flooding in some locations.  If Tropical Storm Pakhar intensifies over the South China Sea and makes landfall west of Hong Kong as a typhoon, it could seriously affect the efforts to recover from damage caused by Typhoon Hato which hit that same area a few days ago.