Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Trevor brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape York to Pormpuraaw.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the east coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River on Tuesday.  Trevor was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved slowly westward across the peninsula to a position south of Weipa.  Trevor brought strong gusty winds and dropped locally heavy rain over the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor weakened steadily while it move over land.  The eye filled with lower clouds and the number of strong thunderstorms around the core and in the rainbands decreased.  However, the circulation remained intact.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor retained a well defined low level circulation with a distinct tight center.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.  Trevor will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor is likely to intensify when it moves back over water.  It could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall redevelop at the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to steer Trevor toward the west for another day or so.  After that time Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Trevor could reach the east coast of the Northern Territory in about 72 hours.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed quickly off the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica is also forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could approach the coast of Western Australia in about four days.

Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor Nears Cape York Peninsula

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor neared the Cape York Peninsula on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Tropical Cyclone Warnings for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Orford Ness to Cape Flattery, from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw on the west coast of the peninsula and for inland locations between the two coasts.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Trevor was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will take Trevor about 24 hours to cross the Cape York Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will weaken during that time.  Trevor will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 36 hours and it will strengthen again after it gets back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near or just to the south of Lockhart River in about 12 hours.    Trevor is forecast to move westward across the Cape York Peninsula.  it is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria between Weipa and Aurukun in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will be capable of causing major damage.  It will bring strong winds and a storm surge to the area around Lockhart River.  Trevor will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the Cape York Peninsula and flooding could occur in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could threaten the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Develops Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Trevor developed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea organized quickly on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there were indications that an eye could be starting to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the Tropical Cyclone Trevor and the circulation was symmetrical.  Storms near the center of Trevor were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor will intensify during the next day or so and it could intensify rapidly.  It is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor could reach the east coast of the Cape York peninsula in about 36 hours.  Trevor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery.  Tropical Cyclone Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cape York to Cape Grenville and from Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Pola strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 177.6°W which put it about 170 miles (275 km) west-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

There was a small, circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the northwestern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southeastern half of Pola consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for support a strong tropical cyclone for another day or so.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Pola will stat to move over cooler water on Thursday.  An upper level trough will approach Tropical Cyclone Pola from the west.  The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Pola to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Pola could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola toward the south-southwest during the next day or two.  Eventually, the upper level trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Pola toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Pola and the strongest winds will pass west of Tonga.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and heavy rain at times to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoo Wutip continued to weaken west-northwest of the Marianas.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pola Organizes Quickly Between Fiji and Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Pola organized quickly between Fiji and Tonga on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pola was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 176.7°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) north-northwest of Nuku’alofa, Tonga.  Pola was moving toward the south at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A well organized low level center of circulation consolidated within a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms north of Tonga on Tuesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Pola.  A small circular eye was beginning to appear at the center of circulation on some satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the center of Pola were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Pola.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Pola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Pola will intensify during the next day or so and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Pola will move over colder water and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger later this week and it will start to weaken at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Pola will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Pola in a southward direction.  On its anticipated track the core and strongest part of Tropical Cyclone Pola will pass west of Tonga.  The outer rainbands on the western side of the circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Fiji.  Rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Tonga.

Elsewhere, Typhoon Wutip was weakening west of the Marianas.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 345 miles (560 km) west-northwest of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Wutip Intensifies Into a Typhoon Southeast of Guam

Former Tropical Storm Wutip intensified into a typhoon southeast of Guam on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 6.5°N and longitude 150.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) southeast of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Satawal and Puluwat.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch are in effect for Ulul and Faraulep.

Typhoon Wutip continued to exhibit better organization on Wednesday.  A cluster of thunderstorms remained near the center of circulation.  A band of storms wrapped around the southern side of the center, which could indicate the start of the formation of an eyewall.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Wutip.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Typhoon Wutip will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Typhoon Wutip will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will create some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Wutip will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

The ridge will steer Typhoon Wutip in a northwesterly direction during the next 48 hours.  Wutip is likely to turn more toward the north-northwest when it approaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Wutip could be south of Guam in 36 to 48 hours.  Wutip could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea between New Caledonia and Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude159.8°E which put it about 560 miles (905 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Oma was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caldonia.  Oma was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened on Monday.  A broken ring of thunderstorms developed around a large eye at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of approximately 60 miles (95 km).  The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of the ring with active thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large inner core of Tropical Cyclone Oma.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to intensify during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Oma in a southwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma will pass west of New Caledonia.  However, rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could drop locally heavy rain over New Caledonia.  Those rainbands could also produce winds to tropical storm force over northern New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea north of New Caledonia on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 164.2°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of New Caledonia.  Oma was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to become better organized on Friday.  A ring of thunderstorms wrapped around much of the center of circulation and there were indications on satellite images that an eye could be forming.  The strongest thunderstorms were the northwestern part of the ring.  The ring was thinner east of the center and there were several breaks in that portion of the ring.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from core of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The bands were stronger north and west of the center and the stronger winds were occurring in that part of Tropical Cyclone Oma.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to strengthen more and there is a chance that it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move slowly around the western end of a strengthening subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Oma slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will move toward the southwest more rapidly in a day or so when the subtropical ridge is stronger.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Oma could pass near the northernmost islands of New Caledonia in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Spins Northwest of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea northwest of Vanuatu on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 165.1°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Oma was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma exhibited evidence of greater organization on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped more tightly around the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms also exhibited greater organization.   Storms around the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Once Tropical Cyclone Oma starts to move, it will move through an area favorable for intensification.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will be likely to intensify and it will likely strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Oma has been in an area where the winds at the steering level were weak and it has moved little during the past several days.  An upper level ridge east of Oma is forecast to strengthen during the next few days.  When the ridge strengthens, it will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Oma toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Oma will move slowly away from Vanuatu and it could be north of New Caledonia in a few days.