Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Niran Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Niran brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 165.0°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 29 m.p.h. (46 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran weakened during its approach to New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall, and concentric eyewalls formed. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, stronger eyewall weakened. Even though it weakened, Tropical Cyclone Niran was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.7. Niran was capable of causing major damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Niran was passing just to the west of New Caledonia. The strongest winds around the core of Niran were remaining just west of the island. Tropical Cyclone Niran was producing gusty winds and it was dropping locally heavy rain over New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the east-southeast during the next two days. Niran will continue to weaken during that time period. The upper level trough will cause vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Niran will move over cooler water. Weather conditions on New Caledonia should improve on Saturday when Niran moves rapidly away from the area.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Coral Sea on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 160.2°E which put it about 505 miles (815 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify rapidly over the Coral Sea on Friday morning even though it was moving quickly toward the east-southeast. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3 Niran was capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment capable of supporting an intense tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours. Niran will begin to weaken when its circulation begins to interact with New Caledonia. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Tropical Cyclone Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken more quickly on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran quickly toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran will begin to affect New Caledonia within 12 hours. Niran will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches New Caledonia. The track of Tropical Cyclone Niran will cause it to bring very strong winds, a significant storm surge and heavy rain to all of New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread catastrophic damage to New Caledonia. Niran could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows water toward the shore. It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 155.6°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east-southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia on Thursday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was present at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms around the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

There was a large area of strong winds around Tropical Cyclone Niran. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 25.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.1. Tropical Cyclone Niran was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the axis an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough near eastern Australia will approach Niran in about 24 hours. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and the wind shear will begin to increase. More shear will cause Niran to start to weaken on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 24 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Niran will be capable of causing widespread major damage to New Caledonia. Niran will also drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 149.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Niran continued to intensify over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) developed at the center of Niran. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran expanded in size on Wednesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Niran was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.2.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. It is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in 48 hours. Niran could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 14.7°S and longitude 148.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Niran strengthened over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Niran. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Niran will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Niran toward the southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Niran could approach New Caledonia in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone Niran Develops over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Niran developed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Niran was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 147.0°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Niran was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Niran. The circulation around Niran was organizing gradually. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of Niran. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Niran will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Niran. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and they are contributing to the current asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification. Tropical Cyclone Niran will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Niran will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so. Niran could make a slow loop over the Coral Sea east of Queensland during the next 24 hours. A high pressure system over the tropical South Pacific Ocean will strengthen during the week. The high will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Niran toward the southeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track Niran could approach New Caledonia during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Brushes New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brushed New Caledonia on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 167.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia on Tuesday night. Lucas weakened before it reached New Caledonia. An upper level trough east of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the tops off of thunderstorms around the center of Lucas. Drier air wrapped around the northern side of the tropical cyclone, which caused some of the outer rainbands to weaken as well. Tropical Cyclone Lucas was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moved near southern New Caledonia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Lucas.

Since many of the stronger thunderstorms in the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lucas have weakened, the system will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. A high pressure system north of New Zealand will steer Lucas slowly toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lucas will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia for another 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Lucas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 163.1°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas intensified north of New Caledonia on Monday. A microwave satellite image showed a small eye forming at the center of Lucas. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the developing eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Lucas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lucas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear could be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Lucas even though it will move over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours. That high pressure system will steer Lucas toward the southeast during the next day or so. A second high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Lucas more toward the south later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Lucas could approach New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Bina Develops Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Bina developed northwest of Fiji on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bina was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 175.7°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) northwest of Labasa, Fiji. Bina was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

As Tropical Cyclone Ana was moving away from Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Bina developed northwest of that nation. A low pressure system northwest of Fiji strengthened on Sunday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Bina. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bina. Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bina was small. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Bina.

Tropical Cyclone Bina will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Bina will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Bina toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Bina could reach Vanua Levu within 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone Bina will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji during the next 36 hours. The stormy conditions will make efforts on Viti Levu and Vanua Levu to recover from Tropical Cyclone Ana more difficult. Heavy rain could make floods caused by Ana to become worse.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ana was moving away from Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Lucas was strengthening over the Coral Sea. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 179.7°E which put it about 105 miles (17 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Ana was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) west-northwest of New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the east at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb. Tropical Cyclone Lucas is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. It could affect New Caledonia and Vanuatu in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Ana Brings Wind and Rain to Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Ana brought wind and rain to Fiji on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 178.3°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) north-northwest of Suva, Fiji. Ana was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ana made landfall on the north coast of Viti Levu near Rakiraki on Saturday afternoon. Ana had strengthened to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the time it made landfall. Radar images from the Fiji Meteorological Service indicated that an eye was beginning to form at the center of Tropical Cyclone Ana before it made landfall. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the forming eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ana was producing winds to tropical storm force on Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. Heavy rain was also falling on those islands and flash floods could occur. Gusty winds and heavy rain will spread over Kadavu on Sunday.

An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which will steer Tropical Cyclone Ana toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On it anticipated track the center of Ana will cross eastern Viti Levu during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ana will pass near Kadavu on Sunday. Ana is expected to pass west of Tonga early next week.