Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Southwest of Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved southwest of Tahiti on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 151.2°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southwest of Papeete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat brought rain showers and gusty winds to Tahiti on Wednesday. Nat started to weaken as it moved southwest of Tahiti. An upper level trough northeast of New Zealand produced strong westerly winds that blew across the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew away the tops of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Nat. A few thunderstorms persisted in a band in the far eastern edge of Nat’s circulation. Other bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Nat’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Tahiti. Bands in the northern side of Nat will continue to bring gusty winds and rain showers to Tahiti during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Osai strengthened west of Palmerston Island. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Osai was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 164.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Palmerston Island. Osai was moving toward the southeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Toward Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved toward Tahiti on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 155.4°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Pappete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat strengthened a little as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean toward Tahiti on Tuesday. Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Nat’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Bands in the western and southern part of Nat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 120 miles (195 km) in the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwest quadrant of Nat.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of New Zealand. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Bora Bora during the next 24 hours. Nat could be near Tahiti within 36 hours. Bands in the northern side of Nat could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Society Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 11P formed north of American Samoa. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 168.9°W which put it about 110 miles (195 km) north of Pago Pago, American Samoa. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of American Samoa.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Forms West of Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat formed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Tahiti on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 163.6°W which put it about 965 miles (1560 km) west of Pappete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the east-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean between Samoa and Tahiti strengthened on Monday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nat. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Storms near the center of Nat’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Bands in the western and southern part of Nat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 160 miles (260 km) in the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southwest quadrant of Nat.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of New Zealand. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Nat could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Nat will move closer to Tahiti. The center of Tropical Cyclone Nat is forecast to pass north of Palmerston, Aitutaki and Mauke. The winds blowing around the southern side of Nat’s could bring gusty winds and rough seas to those places during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 145.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Townsville, Australia. Kirrily was moving toward the west-southwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Innisfail to Ayr. The Warning included Townsville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily made landfall on the coast of Queensland just to the north of Townsville on Thursday. Kirrily strengthened up until it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kirrily’s circulation and an eye was starting to form just before landfall occurred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily at the time of landfall.

A weather station at Townsville reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h). The weather station reported 0.97 inches (24.6 mm) of rain. A weather station at Lucinda reported a sustained wind speed of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h). A weather station at Alva Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 m.p.h. (108 km/h). That weather station also reported 1.13 inches (28.8 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Kirrily toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will continue to move inland over northern Queensland. Kirrily will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Kirrily will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch was in effect for the region between Tully and Airlie Beach.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Approaches Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily approached the coast of Queensland on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia. Kirrily was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Innisfail to Sarina. The Warning included Townsville, Mackay and Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily strengthened on Wednesday as it moved over the Coral Sea toward the coast of Queensland. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Kirrily’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Bands in the eastern side of Kirrily’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Kirrily generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Kirrily will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kirrily’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Kirrily toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 12 hours. Kirrily will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch was in effect for the region between Tully and Airlie Beach. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) along the portion of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily formed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 151.7°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia. Kirrily was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Innisfail to Sarina. The Warning included Townsville, Mackay and Bowen.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened during Tuesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kirrily’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Bands in the eastern side of Kirrily’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Kirrily generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kirrily will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kirrily’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Kirrily toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 24 hours. Kirrily will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 91.0°E which put it about 1350 miles (2180 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Brings Wind and Rain to Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper brought wind and rain to Queensland on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall on the North Coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation early on Wednesday. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper at the time of landfall.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper made landfall between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds occurred between Cairns and Cooktown. A weather station in Cooktown reported a sustained wind speed of 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h). The weather station also measured 1.91 inches (48.5 mm) of rain. A weather station in Cairns reported a sustained wind speed of 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h) and a wind gust of 35 m.p.h. (57 km/h). The weather station in Cairns measured 4.18 inches (105.2 mm) of rain and it was still raining.

Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasper were dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. A Major Flood Warning was in effect for the Daintree River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Mossman River. A Moderate Flood Warning was in effect for the Mulgrave River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Russell River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Murray River. A Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Tully River. An Initial Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the Barron River.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move west across northern Queensland during the next 36 hours. Jasper will weaken gradually as it moves over land. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain across parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause additional flooding in some locations. Jasper could move over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Jasper neared the coast of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail, Chillagoe and Palmerville.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was approaching the coast of Queensland near Cape Tribulation on Tuesday night. Jasper was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm as it neared the coast. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours until the center reaches the coast of Queensland. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little before it makes landfall. There is a slight chance that Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in a few hours. The center of Jasper is likely to reach the coast near Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. The strongest winds will occur between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Heavy rain will spread inland over the Cape York Peninsula as Jasper moves farther to the west. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Strengthens Again

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday as it approached the coast of Queensland. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 147.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Flattery to Lucinda, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Cooktown, Innisfail and Chillagoe. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper strengthened again on Monday. New thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Jasper generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in a region of drier air. The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper is likely to intensify in spite of the drier air during the next 24 hours. Jasper could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 24 hours. Jasper could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Prompts Warning for Queensland

A potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Jasper prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Tropical Cyclone Warning for a portion of the coast of Queensland on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cooktown to Townsville, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Warning included Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island. A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Palmerville and Chillagoe.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper weakened on Sunday as it continued to move closer to Queensland. Jasper moved into a region of sinking, drier air. The drier air mixed with the rainbands revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. The drier air reduced the relative humidity and most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Jasper dissipated. Bands revolving around the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large, symmetrical circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Jasper will still be in the region of drier air. The drier air will continue to inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, if new thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation. On the other hand, if no new thunderstorms develop, then Jasper could weaken a little more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea and Eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper will reach the coast of Queensland between Cairns and Cooktown in 48 hours.