Category Archives: Australian Region

Tropical Cyclone Wallace Churns Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Wallace continued to churn northwest of Australia on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Wallace was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Wallace was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Wallace exhibited signs of greater organization on Sunday.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in other bands that were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Wallace.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Wallace will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Wallace will move over water where Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge over northern Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will limit intensification, but it may not be great enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Wallace from getting stronger.  Wallace could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over northern Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Wallace toward the west-southwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Wallace is forecast to remain north of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Wallace Develops North of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Wallace developed over the Timor Sea north of Western Australia on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Wallace was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 280 miles (440 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Wallace was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology posted a Tropical Cyclone Warning from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a Tropical Low over the Timor Sea on Friday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Wallace.  The distribution of thunderstorms in the circulation around Wallace was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation and in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern half of of Tropical Cyclone Wallace consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Wallace was moving north of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing strong easterly winds which were causing significant vertical wind shear.  Those winds and the shear were probably the cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Storms west of the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of Tropical Cyclone Wallace.

Tropical Cyclone Wallace may move into an area more favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Wallace could move into an area where the upper level winds are not quite as strong.  Tropical Cyclone Wallace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, if it moves into an area where the shear is less, then Tropical Cyclone Wallace is likely to strengthen.  There is a chance Wallace could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Wallace will move around the northwestern end of a subtropical ridge over Australia.  The ridge will steer Wallace toward the west-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Wallace is forecast to stay north of the coast of Western Australia during the next few days.

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha Brings Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 63.9°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) from Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.3.  Joaninha was capable of causing major damage.

The southwestern portion of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was very near Rodrigues.  Winds to hurricane typhoon force were occurring in that part of the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force are likely to affect all of Rodrigues.  The circulation around Joaninha was somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and the heaviest rain is likely to fall east of Rodrigues.  However, heavy rain in the eyewall could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Joaninha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Joaninha could strengthen slightly while it passes by Rodrigues.

An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will steer Tropical Cyclone Joaninha toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Joaninha will move away from Rodrigues on Tuesday.  Conditions in Rodrigues should improve gradually as Tropical Cyclone Joaninha moves away.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, weakening Tropical Cyclone Veronica was skirting the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 115.4°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica dropped heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and flooding was occurring in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica Stalls, Weakens Near Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Veronica stalled and weakened near the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedand.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 117.5°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Port Hedland.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect from Port Hedland to Mardie including Karratha and Barrow Island.

The southern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Veronica moved over the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Saturday night.  Veronica was the equivalent of a major hurricane and there would have been a period of strong winds near the coast.  It likely caused some wind damage and generated a storm surge at the coast.  An upper level trough west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that reached the top of Tropical Cyclone Veronica as it neared the coast.  Those winds produced very strong vertical wind shear and they blew the upper half of the circulation southeast of the lower half of the tropical cyclone.  The decoupling of the upper and lower parts of the circulation caused Tropical Cyclone Veronica to weaken very quickly during the past 12 hours.  Veronica weakened from the equivalent of a major hurricane to a tropical storm.

The strong wind shear also generated an asymmetrical distribution of rainfall.  Most of the rain was falling in the southeastern half of the circulation which was over Western Australia.  Bands in the northwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Locally heavy rain could produce flooding in a few locations, but the rapid weakening of Tropical Cyclone Veronica will reduce the risk of flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will continue to weaken quickly because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The decoupling of the upper and lower halves of the circulation has resulted in little motion during the past few hours.  However, the lower half of Veronica will be steered more by the winds in the lower troposphere.  Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Veronica toward the west-southwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the lower half of Veronica will move near the coast of Western Australia.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica will pass near Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.  Veronica will bring some gusty winds, but it should pose a limited risk.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was strengthening northwest of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 62.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) northwest of Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Makes Landfall in the Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory of Australia southeast of Port McArthur early on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 137.0°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-southeast of Port McArthur, Northern Territory.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Port Roper, Northern Territory to Burketown, Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it made landfall.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.6.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor was capable of causing major damage when it made landfall.  It could have generated a storm surge of up to 12 feet (4 meters at the coast).

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will continue to move southwestward and it will gradually weaken as it moves farther inland.  Trevor will also drop heavy rainfall while it moves inland.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of the eastern Northern Territory and western Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica was advancing slowly toward the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 117.1°E.  Veronica was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Wallal to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Veronica changed significantly on Friday.  A large eye with a diameter of about 40 miles (65 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Veronica.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Veronica toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland in about 24 hours.  Veronica will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall and it will be capable of causing serious damage.

Tropical Cyclones Trevor and Veronica Bracket Australia

Tropical Cyclones Trevor and Veronica bracketed Australia on Thursday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica was stronger but Tropical Cyclone Trevor was the more immediate threat.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east-northeast of Port McArthur, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Shield, Northern Territory to Karumba, Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor strengthened more quickly as more of the circulation moved over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  A circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Trevor generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will continue to intensify on Friday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern side of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near Port McArthur in about 24 hours.  Trevor could be a major hurricane at that time.  It will bring strong winds, which could cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will drop heavy rain when it moves inland and it could cause flooding in some locations.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 116.7°E which put it about 200 miles (355 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica remains the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A circular eye was surrounded by a ring of strong storms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Veronica.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Veronica will remain in an area favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure.  Veronica will move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Karratha and Port Hedland in about 48 hours.  Veronica is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Trevor brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape York to Pormpuraaw.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the east coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River on Tuesday.  Trevor was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved slowly westward across the peninsula to a position south of Weipa.  Trevor brought strong gusty winds and dropped locally heavy rain over the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor weakened steadily while it move over land.  The eye filled with lower clouds and the number of strong thunderstorms around the core and in the rainbands decreased.  However, the circulation remained intact.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor retained a well defined low level circulation with a distinct tight center.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.  Trevor will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor is likely to intensify when it moves back over water.  It could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall redevelop at the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to steer Trevor toward the west for another day or so.  After that time Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Trevor could reach the east coast of the Northern Territory in about 72 hours.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed quickly off the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica is also forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could approach the coast of Western Australia in about four days.

Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor Nears Cape York Peninsula

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor neared the Cape York Peninsula on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Tropical Cyclone Warnings for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Orford Ness to Cape Flattery, from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw on the west coast of the peninsula and for inland locations between the two coasts.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Trevor was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will take Trevor about 24 hours to cross the Cape York Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will weaken during that time.  Trevor will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 36 hours and it will strengthen again after it gets back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near or just to the south of Lockhart River in about 12 hours.    Trevor is forecast to move westward across the Cape York Peninsula.  it is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria between Weipa and Aurukun in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will be capable of causing major damage.  It will bring strong winds and a storm surge to the area around Lockhart River.  Trevor will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the Cape York Peninsula and flooding could occur in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could threaten the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Develops Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Trevor developed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea organized quickly on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there were indications that an eye could be starting to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the Tropical Cyclone Trevor and the circulation was symmetrical.  Storms near the center of Trevor were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor will intensify during the next day or so and it could intensify rapidly.  It is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor could reach the east coast of the Cape York peninsula in about 36 hours.  Trevor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery.  Tropical Cyclone Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cape York to Cape Grenville and from Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation.