Category Archives: Australian Region

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 117.9°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened over the warm water northwest of Australia on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Claudia.  The stronger rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Claudia from getting strong during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will remain well off the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Claudia developed northwest of Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 125.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.  The Warning zone includes Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

A Tropical Low moved westward across northern Australia late last week.  The circulation around the low pressure system began to organize when the system moved over Timor Sea west of Darwin on Saturday.  The wind speed increased and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Claudia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms formed quickly in other bands north and west of the center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in rainbands south and east of the center, but much of that part of the circulation was still over western Australia.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Claudia from strengthening.  Claudia could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The core of Claudia with the strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Makes Another Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake made another landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Wallal Downs, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake moved across the coast of Western Australia just to the west of Wallal Downs on Tuesday.  Blake was beginning to weaken, but winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the northwestern part of the circulation that was still over water.  A weather station at Bedout Island which is just off the coast of Western Australia was reporting a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (82 km/h).  A weather station in Mandora, Australia had already received 2.69 inches (64.4 mm) of rain from the rainbands in eastern side of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  Blake will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake could be near Marble Bar in about 12 hours.  Blake could approach Newman in about 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will weaken as it moves farther inland.  Blake could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and the potential for flash floods exists.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was slowly organizing over the Arafura Sea north of Australia.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 11.2°S and longitude 137.7°E which put it about 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  The Tropical Low is forecast to move westward and to strengthen.  A Watch has been issued for the portions of the coast from Cape Don to Point Stuart and from Goulburn Island to Cape Shield.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake brought wind and rain to portions of Western Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 121.5°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Broome, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake made landfall on the coast of Western Australia north of Broome earlier on Monday.  The center moved back out over water slightly north of Broome and then the center passed just to the west of that city.  A weather station in Broome measured sustained winds of 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and a wind gust to 50 m.p.h. (82 km/h).  5.83 inches (148 mm) of rain fell over Broome.  A rainband in the northeastern periphery of the circulation dropped rain over the area around the Kimberly Plateau during much of Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Blake weakened while the center was over land, but it appears to be strengthening again now that the center is back over water.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation during the past few hours.  Those storms started to generated upper level divergence again.  Bands farther away from the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation mainly in portions of circulation over water.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Blake will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Blake could strengthen during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Blake toward the south-southwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blake could make another landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Wallal Downs.  A Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to De Grey.  Blake will bring gusty winds and rain to that portion of the coast.

Elsewhere, a new Tropical Low developed over the Arafura Sea north of Australia.  At 8:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 137.7°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.  The Tropical Low is forecast to move back toward the west and to strengthen.  A Watch has been issued for the portion of the Australian coast from Cape Shield to Cape Don including Goulburn Island.  On its anticipated track the center of the Tropical Low could pass near Cape Wessel in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Blake Strengthens Near Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blake strengthened near Western Australia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 140 miles (220 km) north of Broome, Australia.  Blake was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kuri Bay to De Grey including Broome.  A Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Whims Creek including Port Hedland.

The circulation around a Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia became more organized on Sunday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Blake.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in a primary rainband on the eastern side of Blake.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Blake will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Blake will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Blake shifted eastward on Sunday as the circulation reorganized closer to the inner end of the primary rainband.  Blake will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered near northern Australia.  The high will steer Blake toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Blake will pass just west of Broome in about 24 hours.  Blake could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Wallal Downs in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blake will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Low Forms Northwest of Australia

A Tropical Low formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of a Tropical Low was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) north of Broome, Australia.  It was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Watch was issued for the portion of Western Australia from Mitchell Plateau to Wallal Downs.

The circulation around the Tropical Low was still organizing.  It did not have a well developed center of circulation.  There was a clockwise rotation around a broad center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to form in the outer regions of the circulation.  Upper level divergence was pumping mass away from the Tropical Low and the surface pressure was decreasing.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The Tropical Low will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The Tropical Low will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered near the north coast of Australia.  The high will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach the coast of Western Australia southwest of Cape Leveque in a day or two.

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann Nears Northern Queensland

A weaker Tropical Cyclone Ann neared northern Queensland on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 148.4°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Cooktown, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning that extended from Lockhart River to Cooktown including Coen and Lizard Island.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann weakened on Monday because of a drier, more stable environment and more vertical wind shear.  Low level convergence pulled drier, more stable air closer to the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  The drier, more stable air caused many of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  Despite the drier, more stable environment stronger thunderstorms redeveloped south of the center of circulation late on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Ann was moving near the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge.  The ridge produced easterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear also contributed to the weakening of storms in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann continued to have a distinct low level center of circulation despite the less favorable environment.  However, the wind field exhibited a more asymmetric structure.  The strongest winds were occurring in an area of thunderstorms south of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will continue to move through a less favorable environment during the next 24 hours.  Ann will move over water in the Coral Sea where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27.5°C.  It will continue to move through a region where there is drier, more stable air and the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier, more stable air and moderate vertical wind shear will prevent significant intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours, but it may weaken when it approaches the coast of the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of a ridge which will steer Ann toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 24 hours.  Ann will bring some gusty winds, but the greatest risk will be locally heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Strengthens Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann strengthened over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 153.6°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann exhibited greater organization on Sunday.  There were indications on satellite images that a cloud filled eye might be trying to form at the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ann.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will be moving through an environment that contains factors favorable for intensification and a factor that will inhibit potential intensification.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is surrounded by drier more stable air and the drier air is the factor that will inhibit intensification.  So far, the circulation around Ann has kept the drier air outside the tropical cyclone.  If the drier air remains outside the circulation, then Tropical Cyclone Ann would have a chance to strengthen.  However, if the drier air gets pulled into the circulation, then Ann will weaken.  The higher probability is that Tropical Cyclone Ann could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or two depending on what happens to the drier air.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move north of an area of high pressure, which will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula north of Coen in less than 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann formed over the Coral Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 875 miles (1410 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation became more evident in satellite images of a low pressure system over the eastern Coral Sea on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Ann.  A rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  A microwave satellite image indicated that the band may have wrapped completely around the center in the middle levels of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation in the southern half of Ann.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Ann toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 72 hours.  Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Elsewhere around the tropics in the southern hemisphere, Tropical Cyclone Lili was weakening near the coast of East Timor.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Suai, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lili Forms Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea exhibited more organization on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lili.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to wrap around the low level center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the periphery of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.   The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lili was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Lili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong during the next 12 to 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Lili could intensify during that period.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move closer to the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours.  There are strong northerly winds blowing around the western end of the ridge and there will be more vertical wind shear.  If the shear increases, then the circulation around Lili is likely to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is likely to steer Lili more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lili could reach East Timor in about 36 hours.  Lili will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.  An alternative forecast scenario is possible.  If the vertical wind shear is not too strong and the vertical structure of Tropical Cyclone Lili remains intact, the upper level ridge could steer Lili more toward the south.  In that case Tropical Cyclone Lili could bring rain to Western Australia.