Monthly Archives: February 2020

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile Develops South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile developed south of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 74.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Gabekile was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gabekile was small but well organized.  Some microwave images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of circulation.  The eyelike feature was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Gabekile.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Gabekile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gabekile could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Gabekile  toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gabekile will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco was weakening as it moved slowly inland over east-central Madagascar.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 48.3°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) north of Marolambo, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Weakens East of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened east of Australia on Wednesday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 161.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Uesi was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved into a more unfavorable environment.  An upper level low over eastern Australia and an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean interacted to produce strong northerly winds which blew across the top of Uesi.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they pushed the upper part of the circulation to the south of the lower level circulation.  Thunderstorms were only occurring in bands south of the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will continue to weaken as it moves into an even more unfavorable environment.  The upper low over eastern Australia and the upper ridge over the South Pacific will steer Uesi toward the south.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move over colder water.  The trough and the ridge will also continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combined effects of colder water and strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Uesi to weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Uesi was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi exhibited evidence of being the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of the development of an eye in the lower and middle levels of Uesi.  The tops of tall thunderstorms around the center of circulation obscured the developing eye on conventional visible and infrared satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was producing the strongest wind speeds.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Uesi.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation and out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will likely continue to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The high pressure system will steer Uesi toward the south.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Uesi will pass near and just to the west of northern New Caledonia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Uesi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Develops Rapidly over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Uesi developed rapidly over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 163.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of New Caledonia. Ueusi was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h, (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Uesi organized quickly on Sunday.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in other rainbands.  The strongest bands were in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will mot be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Uesi toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi could approach the northern end of New Caledonia in about 48 hours.  Uesi will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Damien brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 117.0°E which put it about 60 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier.  Flood Warnings were in effect for the Fortescue River and the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.  An Initial Flood Warning was issued for the Ashburton River.

A weather station at Karratha reported a sustained wind speed of 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h or 78 kt) when the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien passed over it.  The station also reported a wind gust of 114 m.p.h. (183 km/h or 99 kt).  The weather station at Karratha measured 6.14 inches (156 mm) of rain during the passage of Damien.  The minimum pressure was 957 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Damien could approach Tom Price and Paraburdoo in about 12 hours.  Damien will weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  It will continue to produce strong winds capable of causing damage during the next 12 to 24 hours  Tropical Cyclone Damien could also drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia during the next several days.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien Nears Western Australia

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Damien neared the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northwest of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from De Grey to Onslow including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.  Initial Flood Warnings were in effect for the Coastal Pilbara Rivers.  A Flood Watch was in effect for the Pilbara and Gascoyne District.

Tropical Cyclone Damien continued to strengthen quickly on Friday.  A circular eye developed at the center of Damien.  A narrow ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Damien was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Damien was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.4.  Damien was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Damien from strengthening.  Damien could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Dampier and Karratha in about 12 hours.  Damien will be capable of causing serious wind damage.  It will also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) between Port Hedland and Dampier where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in parts of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Damien Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Damien strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.  A Watch was in effect for the coast from Mardia to Onslow.

Tropical Cyclone Damien organized quickly on Thursday.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of Damien.  A small ring of thunderstorms surrounded the forming eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia in the vicinity of Dampier, Karratha and Wickham in about 24 hours.  Damien could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  It will produce strong gusty winds.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco weakened east of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb

Tropical Cyclone Develops Near Western Australia, Watch Issued

A tropical cyclone currently designated as 14S (SH14) developed near the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday and a Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  A Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Onslow including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Tropical Low previously located over Western Australia moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 14S.  The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move around the northwestern end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will turn more toward the south on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could approach the coast of Western Australia between Port Hedland and Karratha in about 48 hours.  It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco formed northeast of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 70.4°E which put it about 485 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.