Monthly Archives: January 2021

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Makes Landfall in Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall in Madagascar on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 49.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) south-southwest of Antalaha, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on the coast of northeastern Madagascar near Antalaha on Tuesday as the equivalent of a strong tropical storm. Eloise strengthened prior to landfall. A ring of strong thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise and an eye was beginning to form at the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move across northern Madagascar. The center of Eloise will pass near Mampikony in about 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could move over the Mozambique Channel near Maintirano in about 36 hours

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will weaken while it moves across Madagascar. Eloise will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could strengthen again when it moves over the Mozambique Channel later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise nears Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eloise neared northern Madagascar on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Antalaha, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise strengthened as it quickly neared northern Madagascar on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Eloise. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation became more symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours before it reaches northern Madagascar. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify until it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could make landfall on the northeastern coast of Madagascar near Antahala in a few hours. Eloise will produce gusty winds and heavy rain over northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 11:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 1335 miles (2150 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Strengthens East of Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened east of Queensland on Sunday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the Queensland coast from Port Douglas to Lucinda. The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail and Cardwell. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Lucinda to Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi strengthened as it moved parallel to the east coast of Queensland on Sunday. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology radar at Cairns showed a well defined center of circulation. The center was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Kimi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours. Kimi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi could approach the coast of Queensland between Innisfail and Cardwell in 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Kimi could drop heavy rain over parts of Queensland. The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eloise developed northeast of Mauritius on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eloise was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Sunday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Eloise. The distribution of thunderstorms around Eloise was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eloise generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours despite the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach northern Madagascar in about three days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 1405 miles (2265 km) southeast of Digeo Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi Forms Near Queensland

Tropical Storm Kimi formed near the coast of Queensland on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kimi was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 146.4°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Kimi was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Cape Melville to Cardwell. The Warning included Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns.

The circulation around a small low pressure system near the coast of Queensland strengthened quickly on Saturday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kimi. The circulation around Kimi was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kimi.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kimi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of Australia. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Kimi is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Kimi could strengthen rapidly because the circulation is small.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system east of Australia. The high will steer Kimi toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kimi will approach the coast of Queensland between Cooktown and Port Douglas in less than 24 hours. Kimi could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon or a strong tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua Develops Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Joshua developed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.0°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Joshua was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a tropical low southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Joshua. The circulation around Joshua exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an eye could be forming at the center of Joshua. Storms around the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Joshua will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Joshua is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Joshua toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move farther away from Cocos Island. Joshua will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed north-northeast of Rodrigues. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues. The depression was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.

Weak Danilo Passes North of Rodrigues

Weak Tropical Cyclone Danilo passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo weakened into the equivalent of a tropical depression while it passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. Dry air continued to limit the development of thunderstorms in the circulation around Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of a small upper level ridge east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification, the drier air around Danilo is likely to continue to inhibit strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass near pass near Mauritius in about 20 hours. Danilo could be near La Reunion in a day or so. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Danilo moved northeast of Rodrigues on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo continued to be affected by drier. Thunderstorms became more numerous for a time on Thursday and then those storms weakened during Thursday night. A few new thunderstorms began to develop on Friday morning. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) in the southern side of Danilo. Winds in the northern half of the tropical cyclone were weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air around Danilo will continue to inhibit intensification of the tropical cyclone. If the recent increase in thunderstorms persists, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could intensify a little during the next 24 hours. If the drier air causes those thunderstorms to dissipate, then Danilo could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Since the most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds are in the southern half of the circulation, Danilo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.