Tropical Storm Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

Tropical Storm Saudel brought wind and rain to Luzon on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 121.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Saudel was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) determined based on weather radar that the center of Tropical Storm Saudel made landfall on the east coast of Luzon north of Baler on Tuesday. Saudel was getting stronger at the time of landfall. The radar indicated that there was a small, tight center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped closely around the center of Tropical Storm Saudel. Other outer rainbands were revolving around the center. Satellite imagery showed that storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours. Saudel will bring gusty winds an it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon. Heavy rain could could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Saudel will weaken while the center crosses Luzon. The center of Saudel is likely to emerge over the South China Sea near Baguio in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Saudel from intensifying. Saudel will begin to strengthen again when it moves back over water and it could intensify into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will approach the coast of Vietnam in a few days.