Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Marathon, Florida. Eta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta weakened when it moved across Cuba on Sunday morning. Drier air wrapping around the southern side of an upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea was pulled into the core of Tropical Storm Eta and the thunderstorms near the core weakened. Even though the inner core of Eta was weaker, the tropical storm still had a well developed low level circulation. Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms and the lack of thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Eta was also affecting the wind pattern. Low pressure at the center of Eta and a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean generated a strong pressure gradient northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (485 km) to the northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Several stations along the southeast coast of Florida were reporting winds to tropical storm force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 mile (240 km) northwest and southeast of the center of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will produce easterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Monday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta could move over the Loop Current when it moves west of the Florida Keys. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Loop Current is near 29°C. Eta is likely to strengthen to a hurricane when it moves over the Loop Current.

Counterclockwise rotation around the upper low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the west during the next 12 hours. Eta will move more toward the southwest on Monday night. Eta could stall for a period on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will start to pull Eta toward the north later in the week. Eta could move toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Eta will move across the Lower Florida Keys during the next 12 hours. Eta will produce gusty winds over Keys on Monday. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1.3 meters). Bands revolving around the northern side of Tropical Storm Eta will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Florida. Urban flooding will occur in some locations and Flash Flood Watches are in effect for South Florida.