Tropical Cyclone Danilo Swirls South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo swirled south of Diego Garcia on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo was beginning to interact with the circulation around a tropical depression southeast of Danilo. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 76.8°E which put it about 570 miles (970 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo strengthened on Saturday even though it was starting to interact with the tropical depression. The strongest thunderstorms in Danilo were occurring in bands north and west of the center. Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the shear will inhibit intensification. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will temporarily disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next 48 hours. Eventually, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will absorb the circulation of the tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo and the tropical depression will make a slow clockwise revolution while two circulations merge. Danilo will move toward the south-southeast during the next day or two. After Danilo absorbs the tropical depression, a high pressure system north of the tropical cyclone will steer Danilo toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will gradually move farther away from Diego Garcia. Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in five days.