Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

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