Tropical Cyclone Eloise neared northern Madagascar on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Antalaha, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise strengthened as it quickly neared northern Madagascar on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Eloise. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation became more symmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours before it reaches northern Madagascar. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify until it moves over Madagascar.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could make landfall on the northeastern coast of Madagascar near Antahala in a few hours. Eloise will produce gusty winds and heavy rain over northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 11:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 1335 miles (2150 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.