Tropical Cyclone Eloise crossed Madagascar on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 44.3°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) north of Maintirano, Madagascar. Eloise was moving toward the west-southwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise moved quickly across northern Madagascar on Wednesday. Eloise was emerging over the Mozambique Channel by late Wednesday. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Eloise was relatively intact after its passage over Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Eloise. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eloise will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise will intensify during the next 36 hours and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach the coast of Mozambique near Beira in about 48 hours.