Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.
A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.