Tropical Storm Felicia Forms Southwest of Baja California

A center of circulation finally developed in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Baja California and the system has been designated as Tropical Storm Felicia.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 114.9°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Felicia is not a particularly well organized tropical storm.  Most of the thunderstorms are forming in the southern half of the circulation and it does not have many spiral bands.  Recent satellite images seem to indicate that upper level divergence is beginning to occur.  Felicia is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 27°C and the upper level winds do not appear to be too strong.  The potential for some intensification will exist for about another 24 hours.  In a day or so, Felicia will start to move over cooler SSTs and it will likely weaken by the weekend.

A subtropical ridge is steering Felicia toward the northwest and that general steering pattern is expected to continue as long as the vertical integrity of the circulation remains intact.  When Felicia moves over cooler SSTs, the height of the circulation will decrease and the storm will be steered by winds in the lower levels.  Those winds are expected to turn Felicia more toward the west in a day or two.  Felicia poses no threat to land at this time.