Tropical Depression 12 Forms and Warnings Issued for the Bahamas

A small center of circulation developed within a larger disturbance near the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression 12 (TD12).  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 12 was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 73.0°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of San Salvador in the Bahamas and about 30 miles (50 km) north of Mayaguana.  TD12 was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas and for the Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island and Long Cay in the Southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical Depression 12 formed when a tropical wave interacted an upper level low.  Tropical cyclones that develop in that manner tend to be poorly organized in their early stages.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are located east and south of the center of circulation.  The surface center is located on the western edge of the convection.

Although Tropical Depression 12 is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, the upper level environment is marginal for intensification.  An upper level low near southwest of the depression is generating southerly upper level winds over the western part of TD12.  A small upper level high is over the eastern part of TD12.  The upper level high is generating some divergence to the east of the depression.  Some further intensification is possible and the depression could become Tropical Storm Kate on Monday.

Tropical Depression 12 could bring rain and squally weather to parts of the Bahamas.  It is near some of the same places that were hit by Hurricane Joaquin last month and it could hinder recovery efforts.