A NOAA aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Earl found that there were sustained winds to hurricane force and the National Hurricane Center upgrade it to Hurricane Earl at 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m EDT the center of Hurricane Earl was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 86.0°W which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Belize City, Belize. Earl was moving slightly north of due west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Mayo, Mexico to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios to the Honduras/Guatemala border and from Punta Allen, Mexico to Puerto Costa Mayo.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Earl is 10.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.0 and the Hurricane Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 18.4. Those indices mean that Earl is capable of causing localized minor wind damage.
The structure of Hurricane Earl improved significantly on Wednesday as it moved farther from the northern coast of Honduras. An eye developed at the center of circulation and a band of thunderstorms wrapped about two thirds of the way around the eye. The eyewall is broken southwest of the center. Additional bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the periphery of the circulation. The core of strongest winds is relatively small and only extends about 60 miles (95 km) from the center. However, outer rainbands extend at least 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation and the overall size of Hurricane Earl is much larger than it was yesterday.
Hurricane Earl is moving through an environment that is favorable for further intensification. It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It is located beneath an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak. So, there is little vertical wind shear and the ridge is enhancing the upper level divergence. Hurricane Earl has another 10 – 15 hours to intensify before it reaches the coast. Earl will weaken as it moves inland, but it could re-intensify after it moves over the Bay of Campeche. The amount of re-intensification will depend on how long Hurricane Earl remains over land and where it enters the Bay of Campeche.
A subtropical high pressure system is steering Hurricane Earl on a track that is a little north of due west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Earl will reach the coast near the border between Mexico and Belize in about 10 – 15 hours.
Since it is a hurricane, Earl will be capable of causing some wind damage. Hurricane Earl will also create a storm surge near and to the north of where the center makes landfall because the winds will be pushing water toward the coast. The size and number of the rainbands in Hurricane Earl will create the potential for very heavy rainfall and serious flooding as it moves inland over Belize and Mexico.