Tropical Cyclone Vardah Turns Toward India and Strengthens

Tropical Cyclone Vardah turned toward India and strengthened on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vardah was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 88.7°E which put it about 500 miles (800 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Vardah was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Many more thunderstorms formed around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vardah and it exhibited a more symmetrical, circular shape on Friday.  The increasing organization of the circulation include multiple spiral rainbands in the outer portions of the cyclone.  The thunderstorms near the core of Vardah generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the pressure to decrease more quickly.  An increased pressure gradient force generated stronger winds.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vardah has become much more favorable for intensification.  An upper level ridge to the east of Vardah was causing southeasterly winds and was producing moderate vertical wind shear.  Those winds have diminished and the wind shear is much less.  Since Vardah is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, it is efficiently extracting energy from the ocean.  Tropical Cyclone Vardah will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly.  Vardah is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane on Saturday.

A subtropical ridge north of Vardah is strengthening and building toward the west.  The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Vardah toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vardah could approach the coast of southeast India in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Vardah could bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southeastern India in three or four days.