Tropical Cyclone Dineo Intensifies As It Nears Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday as it moved closer to Mozambique.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday and it was on the verge of reaching the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around a circular eye.  There was a break on the western side of the developing eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eyewall.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were rotating around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dineo.  Thunderstorms around the core of Dineo were generating upper level divergence which was transporting mass away from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will move through a favorable environment until it reaches Mozambique.  Dineo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environment will allow Tropical Cyclone Dineo to continue to intensify during the next 12 to 18 hours.  It will become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dineo is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mozambique north of Inhambane in less than 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Dineo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it moves into Mozambique.  Heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will also produce a storm surge along the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur south of where the center makes landfall as the clockwise rotation pushes water toward the coast.