Tropical Cyclone Donna Turns South As Eye Forms

An eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Donna as it turned southward on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Donna was located at latitude 14.1°S and longitude 164.1°E which put it about 390 miles (625 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Donna was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A primary rainband finally wrapped around the center of circulation on Saturday and a circular eye appeared on visible satellite imagery.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Donna.  Thunderstorms in the core of the tropical cyclone generated strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Donna was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.2.

Tropical Cyclone Donna will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Donna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Donna is moving near the western end of a upper level ridge and there are light northerly winds blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Donna is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.  The formation of an eye and a more organized inner core could allow Tropical Cyclone Donna to convert energy more efficiently and a period of rapid intensification is possible.  Tropical Cyclone Donna is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Donna moved slowly westward as it neared the western end of a subtropical ridge.  Donna appears to have reached the end of the ridge and it has turned southward.  The tropical cyclone is likely to move south for another 24 hours.  A upper level trough will approach Donna from the west in about a day and northwesterly winds in the leading side of the trough are likely to push Donna southeast at a faster speed.  The westward movement of Tropical Cyclone Donna during the past several days reduced the potential threat to Vanuatu.  However, that same motion increased the potential threat to New Caledonia.

Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Donna are likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Vanuatu, but the core and strongest winds are likely to stay west of those islands.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Donna could approach New Caledonia in 36 to 48 hours.  The core of Tropical Cyclone Donna could pass over the Iles Loyaute.