Tropical Storm Kenneth Develops Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Kenneth developed southwest of Baja California on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 119.1°W which put it about 810 miles (1305 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed in a tropical wave southwest of Baja California on Friday.  Thunderstorms began to form near the center and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kenneth, which was the 11th named tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific during 2017.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed near the core of Tropical Storm Kenneth on Friday.  Even after thunderstorms formed near the core, the circulation of Tropical Storm Kenneth was asymmetrical.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the western half of the circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  Thunderstorms near the core of Kenneth were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kenneth will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Tropical Storm Kenneth is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear which is probably the cause of the asymmetrical circulation of the tropical storm.  Even though there is moderate vertical wind shear, Tropical Storm Kenneth is likely to intensify and it could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Kenneth is begin steered toward the west by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm.  The subtropical ridge will continue to steer Tropical Storm Kenneth toward the west-northwest for another day or two.  When Tropical Storm Kenneth reaches the western end of the subtropical ridge, it will turn more toward the north.