Tropical Cyclone Dumazile dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Dumazile was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Dumazile strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday. It was a large, powerful tropical cyclone. There was a small circular eye at the center of the circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several rainbands were revolving around the core of the circulation. The storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9. Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Dumazile would be capable of causing extensive major damage if it made landfall.
Although the core of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile passed between Madagascar and La Reunion, the circulation was so large that rainbands on the eastern side of Dumazile passed over La Reunion. Those rainbands dropped locally heavy rain and there were unconfirmed reports of flooding in parts of La Reunion.
Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has likely reached its peak intensity. Dumazile is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but the tropical cyclone will move over colder water when it moves farther south. An upper level trough near southern Africa is producing northwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds are generating vertical wind shear and the shear is forecast to increase during the next several days. The colder water and increased wind shear are forecast to weaken Tropical Cyclone Dumazile during the next few days.
Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has rounded the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is now moving toward the south-southeast. A general southeastward motion is forecast for the next two or three days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumazile should move away from Madagascar and La Reunion.