Tropical Cyclone Nathan Making Landfall in Northern Australia

The center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving inland near Nhulunbuy, Australia.  At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 25 miles south of Nhulunbuy and about 90 miles north-northeast of Alyangula, Australia.  Nathan was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The atmospheric environment around Tropical Cyclone Nathan is favorable for intensification.  The upper level winds are light.  The circulation is well organized and there is upper level outflow pumping out mass.  Outflow channels extend to the northwest and southeast.  However, as the center moves over land, the circulation will weaken.  The center is expected to cross the northeastern corner of Arnhem Land and move back over water in a few hours.  The potential for re-intensification will depend on how far away from the coast the center moves.

A subtropical ridge located southwest of Nathan is steering it toward the northwest.  The ridge is expected to continue to steer the tropical cyclone in that direction for another day or so.  After that time Nathan is expected to start moving more toward the west and eventually toward the southwest and make another landfall on the northern coast of Australia,

Nathan is strong enough to cause some wind damage.  It could also produce a significant storm surge near where the center is making landfall.  Locally heavy rainfall could create possible flooding at inland locations.