Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) Intensifying Slowly Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Solo (23P) intensified slowly over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Solo was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 161.1°E which put it about 470 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia and about 470 miles west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Solo was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Solo is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, but an upper level high to the east of it is producing northerly winds over the top of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is causing more of the stronger thunderstorms to be located south of the center and it is inhibiting the intensification of Solo.  As a result it is intensifying slowly and that trend is expected to continue for the next day or two.  Eventually, when Solo moves to a higher latitude, stronger upper level winds will create more vertical wind shear and weaken it.

Solo is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  As it gets farther south, Solo is expected to move more toward the southeast.  On its projected track, Solo would approach New Caledonia in about 36 hours.  It could be near hurricane intensity at that time.  Solo could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to New Caledonia when it moves past.