Tropical Storm Xavier Forms Southwest of Manzanillo

Tropical Storm Xavier formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 108.2°W which put it about 405 miles (650 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Xavier was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms southwest of Mexico on Friday.  When more thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Friday night, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Xavier.  The core of Tropical Storm Xavier was small.  The inner part of a band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence.  Other short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation, but the strongest winds were occurring primarily in the southeastern quadrant of Xavier.

Tropical Storm Xavier will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the weekend.  Xavier will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough west of Xavier will produce strong southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit upper level divergence to the west of Tropical Storm Xavier.  Xavier is likely to intensify on Saturday, but its small circulation means that it could weaken if the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough will also steer Tropical Storm Xavier in a north-northeasterly direction during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Xavier could approach the west coast of Mexico by Sunday night.