TD One-E Intensifies Quickly Into Tropical Storm Andres

A favorable environment caused Tropical Depression One-E to intensify quickly into Tropical Storm Andres on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 113.3°W which put it about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Andres was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 85 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Andres exhibits a more organized circulation pattern on satellite imagery.  The end of the primary rainband wrapped completely around the center of circulation and an eye appears on some satellite images.  There are more thunderstorms in the rainbands and upper level outflow continues in all directions.  Andres is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  Although there are strong upper level westerly winds north of 20°N and brisk upper level easterly winds near the Equator, Andres is moving through a region where the upper level winds are light.  There is little vertical wind shear to inhibit the  intensification of Andres during the next day or so.  It will gradually move over water where the SSTs are slightly cooler, but there should still be plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support further intensification.  Andres is likely to become a hurricane on Friday and it could continue to intensify rapidly for another 12 to 24 hours.

An upper level trough passing well to the north of Andres is weakening the ridge that has been steering Andres toward the west-northwest.  The effect of the trough will likely be to slow the forward motion of Andres and temporarily make it move more toward the northwest.  After the upper level trough moves off to the northeast, the ridge is likely to strengthen again.  As the ridge strengthens, it will start to steer Andres more toward the west.  On its projected track Andres poses no current threat to Mexico.