Powerful Typhoon Bualoi Approaches Iwo To

Powerful Typhoon Bualoi approached Iwo To on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 142.1°E which put it about 220 miles (360 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts of 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Concentric eyewalls appeared to be at the center of Typhoon Bualoi.  The small inner eye and eyewall were still evident on visible and microwave satellite images.  A second outer eyewall completely encircled the inner eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in the inner eyewall.  Eventually, low level convergence will occur mainly in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall will begin to weaken.  The maximum wind speed will decrease as the inner eyewall weakens.  However, the eyewall replacement cycle will cause the circulation around Typhoon Bualoi to increase in size.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Typhoon Bualoi.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5.  Bualoi was capable of causing significant damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next days or so.  Even though Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon, the eyewall replacement cycle will cause Bualoi to weaken.  Typhoon Bualoi will move into a region where the upper level winds will be stronger on Thursday.  Increased wind shear will cause Bualoi to weaken more quickly when that happens.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the north during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the northeast on Thursday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi could reach Iwo To in about 12 hours.  Bualoi will bring very strong winds to Iwo To.  It will be capable of causing major damage.  Typhoon Bualoi will also drop heavy rain on Iwo To and flash floods will be likely.