Andres Gets Close To Major Hurricane Status

Hurricane Andres strengthened quickly on Saturday and it came close to reaching Major Hurricane status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Andres was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 116.8°W which put it about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Andres was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The convection near the center of Hurricane Andres continued to strengthen for much of Saturday and the eye exhibited circular symmetry.  The hurricane was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 28°C and there was sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support a strong hurricane.  The upper level winds were relatively light and there was not much vertical wind shear over the center of circulation.  However, Andres may be near its maximum intensity.  There are cooler SSTs to the northwest of the hurricane and it will gradually move over those cooler SSTs.  As it moves over cooler water, Andres will also pull cooler, more stable air into the northwestern part of the circulation.  Cooler water and more stable air are likely to weaken the circulation on Sunday.   There are also stronger upper level westerly winds near latitude 20°N and so Andres will encounter stronger vertical wind shear early next week, which could speed its weakening trend.

A trough passing north of the ridge that has been steering Andres has weakened the ridge and caused the hurricane to turn toward the northwest.  Once the trough moves farther east, the ridge will strengthen and extend westward.  The building ridge will cause Andres to move more toward the west during the early part of next week.  On its anticipated track Andres poses no threat to Mexico.