Tropical Storm Nakri Stalls West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nakri stalled west of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nakri was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 116.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Nakri was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Nakri meandered slowly west of the Philippines on Thursday.  The structure of Nakri did not change a lot during the day.  There was a distinct low level center center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were forming on the south side of the center and the strongest winds were occurring in those thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nakri.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms south of the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nakri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Nakri mixed cooler water to the surface during the period when it meandered west of the Philippines, but it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C when it starts moving.  Tropical Storm Nakri will move southeast of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Nakri from strengthening.  Nakri will likely become a typhoon on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nakri has been in an area where the steering winds have been weak and it has moved little during the past 24 hours.  The ridge over southeast Asia will strengthen and it will steer Nakri toward the east during the next 72 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nakri could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 72 hours.  Nakri is likely to be a typhoon when it approaches the coast of Vietnam.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Halong was passing north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Typhoon Halong was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 154.4°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) north of Minami Tori Shima, Japan.  Halong was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.