Tropical Cyclone Seroja Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was spinning northwest of Australia on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 113.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was exhibiting signs of intensification on Wednesday night, but it was also still being affected by vertical wind shear. More thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Seroja. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia during the next 24 hours. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours. Seroja will move closer to the axis of the upper level ridge in a day or so. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when the vertical wind shear decreases and it is forecast to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja during the weekend. The trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could approach the coast of Western Australia south of Denham in 72 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S was interacting with the western side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 105.9°E which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Moves away from Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away to the south of Indonesia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

After dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Indonesia and causing flash floods and mudslides, Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away from the area on Monday. The circulation around Seroja appeared to be a little stronger on Monday night. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a well defined low level center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storms force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next several days. The wind shear will decrease later this week and Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S churned south of Christmas Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 700 miles (1100 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken east of Rodrigues on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 71.1°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues during the weekend. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Habana. Those winds were creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the main factor causing Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Habana. Bands of shower and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain in an environment that will cause it to weaken during the next several days. The upper level trough continue to create moderate vertical wind shear. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the wind shear will be too strong and it will prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to continue to weaken gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through a region where two weather systems will compete to steer it. The westerly winds in the upper levels will try to push Habana toward the east. A high pressure system in the lower levels will try to push Habana toward the west. The upper level trough could push Tropical Cyclone Habana slowly toward the east during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Habana weakens further, the circulation will not extend as high into the atmosphere. So, the high pressure system in the lower levels will push Tropical Cyclone Habana toward the west during the upcoming week. On its anticipated track Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened gradually over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. The temperature at the top of the clouds was not as cold, which indicated that the clouds were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Even though Habana was weakening it still was a very well organized tropical cyclone. There was an eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana increased slightly in size. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment that will gradually become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next several day. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Habana. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Habana. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the south during the next 24 hours. Then the high will strengthen and start to steer Habana toward the west again later in the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues in a next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 75.1°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Wednesday. Microwave satellite images revealed the existence of concentric eyewalls in the middle of Habana. The small original eye and eyewall was surrounded by a larger outer eye. The strongest winds were still occurring in the smaller inner eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. However, the size of the overall circulation around Habana remained small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The formation of concentric eyewalls is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken at least temporarily when the inner eyewall with the strongest winds dissipates. Habana could strengthen again if the outer eyewall being to contract.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to still be east of Rodrigues during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Moves West

Tropical Cyclone Habana moved west over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 77.7°E which put it about 950 miles (1500 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened on Tuesday as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean. A small circular eye was evident again on infrared and microwave satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Habana generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Since the circulation around Habana is so small, the intensity could change rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Expected to Move Westward

Tropical Cyclone Habana is expected to move westward during the upcoming week. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to be the equivalent of a major hurricane. A small circular eye reappeared at the center of Habana on infrared satellite images on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next several days. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since the core of Habana is so small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. In that case an eyewall replacement cycle would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Habana.

A high pressure system located south of Tropical Cyclone Habana will strengthen during the next few days. That high pressure system will become the dominant weather system steering Habana. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Tropical Cyclone Habana back toward the west. On its anticipated track Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iman was speeding away from La Reunion on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 58.5°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iman Brings Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Iman brought rain to La Reunion and Mauritius on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southwest of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened on Saturday after it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar and Meteo France la Reunion designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Iman. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Iman was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Iman. Bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone consisted of primarily of showers and thunderstorms. Storms east of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Iman brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion and Mauritius. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

An upper level trough south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Iman toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iman will move quickly away to the southeast of La Reunion and Mauritius. Weather conditions in those locations will improve on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Iman will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Iman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Iman. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, powerful Tropical Cyclone Habana maintained its intensity south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 79.2°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.1.