Tropical Storm Damrey Forms West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Damrey formed west of the Philippines on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Damrey was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 615 miles (990 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Damrey was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An area of low pressure slowly organized as it moved through the Philippines during the past several days.  A center of circulation developed and bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and started to revolve around the core of the low pressure system.  The Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Damrey.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Damrey is still organizing.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core of Damrey began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Damrey will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Damrey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be near 28°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Damrey is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Damrey will continue to intensify and it could become a typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge north of Damrey is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and a general westerly motion is forecast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Damrey will move toward Vietnam.  Damrey could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 48 hours.  Damrey could be a typhoon when it gets to Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Philippe Brings Wind, Rain to Cuba and South Florida

Tropical Storm Philippe brought wind and rain to parts of Cuba and south Florida on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 82.1°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Key West, Florida.  Philippe was moving toward the north-northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos and Villa Clara.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Island, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Craig Key to Golden Beach, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.

The circulation is of Tropical Storm Philippe is not well organized.  The appear to be multiple smaller centers of counterclockwise rotation moving around inside the broader circulation.  One center of circulation is in northwest of Key West.  Showers and thunderstorms were primarily northeast of that center of rotation.  There were low clouds west of that center.  Another center of rotation was just north of the coast of Cuba.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of this second center.  The middle and upper level circulation of Tropical Storm Philippe appeared to be associated with the center near Cuba.

Tropical Storm Philippe will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Philippe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough approaching Tropical Storm Philippe from the west is producing strong southwesterly winds which are causing significant vertical wind shear.  The shear is inhibiting the organization of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Philippe could intensify on Sunday if the center of circulation near Cuba becomes the dominant center, since it has a more complete vertical structure.

The upper level trough will continue to steer Tropical Storm Philippe quickly toward the northeast on Sunday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Philippe will move through the Upper Florida Keys and over the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.   It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rains to those areas.

Tropical Storm Saola Speeding Toward Tokyo

Tropical Storm Saola sped toward Tokyo, Japan on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 134.4°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west-southwest of Tokyo.  Saola was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Saola was weakening and making a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation.  There were other thinner bands of showers revolving around the core of the circulation.  Strong westerly winds in the upper levels were causing significant vertical wind shear which was tilting the upper part of the circulation toward the northeast.  Cooler drier air appeared to be flowing toward the western part of the circulation.

Westerly winds in the middle latitudes were steering Tropical Storm Saola quickly toward the northeast.  The center of Saola will pass south of Shikoku.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Saola will pass near Tokyo in about 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Saola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Shikoku and central Honshu.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Selma Makes Landfall in El Salvador

Tropical Storm Selma made landfall in El Salvador on Saturday morning.  Selma weakened to a tropical depression after it moved inland.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Selma was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 88.5°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Selma was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The coastal warnings and watches for El Salvador and Honduras have been discontinued.

Tropical Depression Selma will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland.  The higher mountains will disrupt the circulation in the lower levels, but the circulation in the middle and upper levels could persist longer.  Tropical Depression Selma will drop locally heavy rain over El Salvador, western Honduras and eastern Guatemala.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Saola Near Okinawa

The core of Typhoon Saola moved near Okinawa on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Saola was near latitude 26.2°N and longitude 128.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) south of Okinawa.  Saola was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Saola became more well organized on Friday.   The primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation.  A large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  Low clouds and showers were scattered throughout the large eye.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Saola.  The rainbands were weaker on the northwestern side of Typhoon Saola and there appeared to be cooler, drier air on that side of the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Typhoon Saola could be near its maximum intensity.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However Typhoon Saola is near the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase on Saturday.  Typhoon Saola could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours, but it will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Saola is moving around the western end of a ridge which is steering Saola toward the north.  When Typhoon Saola reaches the westerly winds of the middle latitudes, those winds will turn Saola toward the east-northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Saola will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Typhoon Saola will be near southern Kyushu in about 12 hours and the center could pass near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Prompts Warnings for Cuba and Bahamas

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen prompted the governments of Cuba and the Bahamas to issue Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for portions of those countries on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also issued for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Island, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane investigated the system formerly known as Invest 93L on Friday afternoon.  The plane found sustained winds to tropical storm force.  The plane also found a broad circulation center with several smaller centers of circulation revolving around inside the broader center.  Based on the observations from the plane, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) chose not to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Philippe in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.  However, NHC did change the designation of the system from Invest 93L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  If a more well defined center of circulation develops, then NHC could still change designation of the system to Tropical Storm Philippe.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is still organizing.  As mentioned above, there is a broad center of counterclockwise rotation.  There are also several smaller counterclockwise swirls within the broader center.  More showers and thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Friday afternoon.  The storms closer to the center of circulation were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the northeast of the system.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in the outer portions of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The system is embedded in a flow over warm moist air.  However there is a stationary front northwest of the system and there is cooler, drier air north of the stationary front.  The system is currently under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen could slowly intensify during the next 24 hours as the circulation becomes more well organized.

The ridge east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is steering the system toward the north-northwest.  That general motion should continue for another six to twelve hours.  An upper level trough will approach the system from the west on Saturday and the trough will start to steer it more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will approach Cuba on Saturday afternoon.  The center of the system will move south of the Florida Keys on Saturday night and it could move across the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

The system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those locations.  The locally heavy rain could cause flooding.  There could be a storm surge of several feet (one to two meters) on parts of the south coast of Cuba, where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  There could also be some storm surge along the coasts of the Florida Keys.

Tropical Storm Selma Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Storm Selma formed south of El Salvador on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Selma was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of El Salvador.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire Pacific Coast of Guatemala.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in a larger area of thunderstorms south of El Salvador on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Selma.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Selma is very asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are located in the western half of the circulation.  There are bands of showers in the eastern half of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is the primary reason for the asymmetrical structure of the circulation.  Selma is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Selma will be moving through an environment that is neutral for intensification.  Selma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit further intensification.  If the upper level winds weaken, then some intensification may be possible.  However, if the upper level winds get stronger, then Selma could weaken to a tropical depression.

A large counterclockwise circulation centered over Nicaragua and Honduras is steering Tropical Storm Selma slowly toward the northwest and the general motion is expected to continue on Friday.  The upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken on Saturday and that will allow Tropical Storm Selma to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Selma will make landfall on the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Selma will bring some gusty winds to the coast.  However, locally heavy rain and flash floods will be the primary risks associated with Tropical Storm Selma when it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Saola Strengthens, Moves Toward Okinawa

Tropical Storm strengthened on Thursday as it moved closer to Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 129.4°E which put it about 350 miles (570 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Saola was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Saola exhibited more organization in recent hours.  For much of the past several days many of the showers and thunderstorms were in a single primary rainband that wrapped around the outer part of the circulation.  There were few showers or storms near and to the north of the center of circulation.  A broken ring of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the center during the past few hours.  The ring could represent the initial formation of an eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms also began to form outside the core of Tropical Storm Saola.

Tropical Storm Saola will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The winds will be similar in all levels of the atmosphere and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Saola will intensify on Friday and it could become a typhoon.  After about 24 hours Tropical Storm Saola will reach the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase.  More wind shear will start to weaken Saola.

Tropical Storm Saola was moving the western end of a ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saola will approach Okinawa in about 24 hours.  When Saola nears Okinawa, it will encounter the westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will turn Saola toward the northeast.  Tropical Storm Saola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Saola Develops West of Guam

Tropical Storm Saola developed west of Guam on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 134.8°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) northwest of Yap.  Saola was moving toward the west-northwest at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Storm Saola became more well organized on Tuesday.  The center of circulation strengthened and more thunderstorms developed close to the center  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Tropical Storm Saola.  Many of the showers and storms formed southwest of the center.  There were fewer showers and storms northeast of the center.  The storms near the core of Saola began to produce upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Saola will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Saola is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the intensification of Tropical Storm Saola.  The upper level winds are forecast to weaken which would cause the wind shear to decrease.  The decreased wind shear should allow Tropical Storm Saola to intensify during the next several days and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.

The upper level ridge has been steering Tropical Storm Saola toward the west-northwest.  An upper level trough east of Asia is forecast to weaken the ridge.  When the ridge weakens,Tropical Storm Saola will turn more the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saola will remain east of the Philippines and Taiwan.  Tropical Storm Saola could approach Okinawa in about 72 hours.  Saola could be a typhoon when it approaches Okinawa.

Low Pressure Forms Near Northwest Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure formed near the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday and the system has been designated as Invest 93L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) south-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  It was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

An area of low pressure formed in the southern portion of an area of showers and thunderstorms that has persisted over the western Caribbean Sea for several days.  The circulation of Invest 93L is not well organized.  There is no well organized center of circulation nor are there well organized rainbands.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the northern portion of the circulation.  There are not many showers or thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Much of the western half of the circulation is over Nicaragua and Honduras.

Invest 93L will move through an environment mostly favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next few days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Invest 93L is near the axis of an upper level ridge.  So, the upper level winds are weak over the system.  There are stronger winds farther north over the northern Caribbean Sea.  Invest 93L will be slow to develop as long as almost half of the circulation is over land.  Development will be more likely when the center moves farther away from land.

Invest 93L is just west of the axis of the ridge, which is steering the system slowly toward the north.  That general motion is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Invest 93L will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.  Invest 93L will drop locally heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras and it could cause flash floods in some areas.