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Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani Makes Landfall in India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri, India on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 85.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) south of Puri, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a large dangerous system.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 225 miles (360 km) from the center over the Bay of Bengal.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 25.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.2.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will cause the greatest wind damage along the northeast coast of Odisha.  It could also produce a significant storm surge along the coast.  The surge will be highest in bays, estuaries and mouths of rivers.  Fani will drop heavy rain over northeast Odisha, West Bengal and portions of Bangladesh.  The heavy rain is likely to cause inland fresh water floods in some locations.  Wind and rain could cause damage around Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

An upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated path Fani will pass near Bhubaneshwar, Cuttack and Baleshwar in Odisha.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could still be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near those locations.  Fani will weaken steadily while it moves northeast.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it passes near Kolkata.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression when it passes over Bangladesh, but it could still drop heavy rain around Dhaka.  Serious flooding could occur in Bangladesh while Fani weakens.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani Near Northeast India

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Fani neared the coast of northeastern India on Thursday.  Fani rapidly intensified into the nearly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 84.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Visakhapatnam, India.  Fani was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 918 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani intensified rapidly during recent hours.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fani grew larger as it intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.0.  Tropical Cyclone Fani was capable of causing widespread significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Fani toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani is likely to make landfall near Brahmapur, India in about 12 hours.  An upper level trough over India will steer Fani toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could pass near Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in a favorable environment during the 12 hours prior to landfall.  Fani will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will weaken after landfall.  The upper level trough over India will produce stronger southwesterly winds, which will increase the vertical wind shear after Fani makes landfall.  More wind shear and more friction over the land will cause Tropical Cyclone Fani to weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm within 24 hours after landfall occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Fani is a dangerous tropical cyclone.  The strengthen and size of Fani will create the potential for widespread significant damage.  The counterclockwise circulation will cause the winds to blow water toward the coast along the northern Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could generate a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet (4.5 to 6.0 meters) in bays, estuaries and the mouths of rivers which act as funnels during storm surges.  Heavy rain could cause inland fresh water flooding in parts of northeastern India and Bangladesh.  The greatest threats are to the Indian states of Odisha (Orissa) and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 83.9°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened on Tuesday.  A small eye emerged at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of thunderstorms.  The storms were stronger in the western half of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The stronger bands were south and west of the center of Fani.  It appeared that a little drier air may have been pulled into the northern half of the circulation and the bands were weaker in that part of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Fani had a moderately sized circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fani was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds will not be too strong.  The major inhibiting factor will be the drier air over the northern half of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could maintain its intensity and even strengthen during the next 24 hours if the drier air moistens over the warm water of the Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge on Wednesday.  Fani will move more toward the north when it rounds the end of the ridge.  An upper level trough approaching India from the west will turn Tropical Cyclone Fani toward the northeast in about 18 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Fani could approach the coast of Orissa state southwest of Kolkata in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Fani could bring strong winds to parts of Orissa and West Bengal.  Fani could also cause a significant storm surge along portions of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.  Locally heavy rain could also cause floods in Orissa and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fani strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 11.4°N and longitude 86.9°E which put it about 800 miles (1290 km) south of Kolkata (Calcutta), India.  Fani was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fani exhibited greater organization on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Although there was still a break on the southwestern side of the center, an eye may have been forming at the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fani and the circulation was much more symmetrical.  Storm around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  Very warm water and little vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Fani to intensify during the next 48 hours.  It could intensify rapidly once the inner core is fully developed.  Fani is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next  2 to 3 days.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge during the next few days.  The ridge will steer Fani in a generally northward direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani could approach the coast of India southwest of Kolkata in three or four days.  Fani could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Fani has the potential to cause major wind damage.  It will also generate a dangerous storm surge along the coast.  Heavy rain will create the potential for fresh water flooding in inland locations.  The greatest risks at this time are for the Indian states of Orissa and West Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Fani Develops East of Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone Fani developed over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fani was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 635 miles (1020 km) east-southeast of Chennai, India.  Fani was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed on the eastern side of a cluster of thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Bengal on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fani.  The circulation around Fani was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were developing in two clusters which were east and northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move into an environment that is more favorable for intensification.  Fani is currently under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is the primary factor slowing the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Fani.  Fani is forecast to move under the axis of the ridge where the upper level winds are weaker.  There will be less vertical wind shear when that happens.  Tropical Cyclone Fani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  So, intensification is very likely when the wind shear decreases.  Fani is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Rapid intensification could occur if the inner core of the circulation becomes more well developed.

Tropical Cyclone Fani will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Fani toward the north-northwest during the next several days.  It will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fani will move toward the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha Strengthens Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha strengthened over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maarutha was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 91.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southwest of Sandoway, Burma.  Maarutha was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  The band was broken on the eastern side of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the northern and eastern periphery of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the northeast of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will be moving through an environment that will be moderately favorable for intensification during the next 12-24 hours.  Maarutha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Maarutha is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Despite the vertical wind shear Tropical Cyclone Maarutha could intensify further before it makes landfall in Burma in 18 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge east of Maarutha is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will make landfall in Burma between Sittwe and Bassein near Sandoway.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Burma when it makes landfall.  Some storm surge is likely south of where the center makes landfall and the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu Nearing Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Roanu moved closer to the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Roanu was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 87.8°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Kolkata, India and about 355 miles (575 km) west-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Roanu was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

On Friday Tropical Cyclone Roanu went through another cycle in which most of the thunderstorms dissipated near the center of circulation and then convection redeveloped rapidly.  Thunderstorm activity is increasing at the core of the circulation and those storms are driving well developed upper level outflow.  Several well formed bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the center of circulation.  Roanu is more organized and it is a little more intense than it was 24 hours ago.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu is in an environment that could support a little more intensification before it makes landfall on the north coast of the Bay of Bengal.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  Roanu is under an upper level ridge which means the upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical winds shear.  However, Roanu is getting closer to the north coast of the Bay of Bengal and it only has another 12 hours or so to intensify.

A ridge east of Roanu is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be near the coast of Bangladesh in about 12 hours.  Roanu is expected to continue moving toward the northeast after it makes landfall.

Although Tropical Cyclone Roanu could cause some minor wind damage, its main threats will be locally heavy rain and a moderate storm surge.  Tropical Cyclone Roanu could produce locally heavy rainfall, especially if the thunderstorm activity continues to pulse diurnally.  The heavy rain could produce significant fresh water flooding over parts of northeastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma).  In addition, the winds on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be blowing toward the coast of Bangladesh and those winds will push water toward the coast.  The north coast of the Bay of Bengal is particularly susceptible to storms surges and Roanu could bring a moderate storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh.  The surge will be higher in the mouths of rivers and other locations where the shape of the coast funnels the water into specific locations.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu Threatens Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Roanu intensified on Thursday and it poses an increasing threat to the northern Bay of Bengal.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Roanu was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 84.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Visakhapatman, India and about 580 miles (935 km) west-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Roanu was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Roanu weakened earlier today and at times it did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery.  However, a burst of thunderstorm activity near the center of Roanu has occurred in recent hours and an eyelike feature has appeared on conventional satellite imagery.  The structure of the circulation improved as a result of the new burst of thunderstorms.  The primary rainband now coils more tightly about three quarters of the way around the apparent center of circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Several additional bands of thunderstorms have developed over the eastern half of the circulation and Tropical Cyclone Roanu is stronger than it was 24 hours ago.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu is in an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Roanu has moved closer to the center of an upper level ridge and the upper levels are not as strong as they were yesterday.  As a result the vertical wind shear is much less and the upper level ridge is actually helping to pump mass away from the center of Roanu.  The center of the tropical cyclone is near the east coast of India, but the core is expected to remain over water on Friday.  Roanu is likely to strengthen further and it could reach hurricane/typhoon intensity.

A ridge east of Roanu is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Roanu could be south of Kolkata, India in about 18 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Roanu could be approaching Chittagong, Bangladesh in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu poses a significant threat to the northern Bay of Bengal.  That area is vulnerable to storm surges.  Since Roanu will approach from the southwest, the winds in its counterclockwise circulation will push water toward the north coast of the Bay of Bengal.  In addition, a strengthening Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be capable of producing locally heavy rain which could cause inland flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 01B Forms Over Bay of Bengal

The structure of a low pressure system north of Sri Lanka changed on Wednesday and it was classified as Tropical Cyclone 01B (TC01B).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01B was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 82.3°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) south-southwest Visakhapatnam, India.  TC01B was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system developed near Sri Lanka several days ago.  The low moved over the east coast of Sri Lanka, which slowed the organization of the circulation.  A more well defined center of circulation began to organize after the low moved north of Sri Lanka.  A primary rainband started to wrap around the western side of the low and several broken spiral bands formed on the eastern side.  The circulation exhibited enough characteristics associated with tropical cyclones to be classified as Tropical Cyclone 01B.

The circulation of TC01B is still not particularly well organized.  A primary rainband curls around the northern and western sides of the circulation.  However, there are not many thunderstorms in the other parts of the tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge over the northern Bay of Bengal is generating easterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear and are contributing to the fact that most thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation.  The fact that the center of circulation is near the coast of India also means a  portion of circulation is over land, where there is more friction and less moisture.

Tropical Cyclone 01B is expected to move into a more favorable environment during the next two days.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  TC01B is expected to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge where the winds are not as strong.  That would reduce the vertical wind shear, which would also be favorable for intensification.  However, the proximity of the center to the east coast of India means that a portion of the circulation will remain over land, which will slow the rate of future intensification.

A ridge is east of TC01B is expected to steer the tropical cyclone toward the northeast during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track, TC01B could be approaching the coast of Bangladesh in 48 to 72 hours.  TC01B caused heavy rain in parts of Sri Lanka and southeast India.  It could produce more heavy rain in parts of northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma).  TC01B could also generate a significant storm surge along the north coast of the Bay of Bengal as it nears the coast.