Tag Archives: 02A

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Lashes Western Oman

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu lashed western Oman late on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday as it approached the coast of western Oman.  The circulation contracted around a small circular eye.  A well formed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 31.9.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of causing regional major damage.

Winds near the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will be capable of causing major damage near the coast of western Oman.  The rainbands revolving around the core will cause minor damage within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Mekunu.  Strong winds near and east of the center of circulation will be capable of causing a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) at the coast.  Strong thunderstorms will drop heavy rain, especially in places where the air flows up slopes.  Significant flash flooding will be possible in normally arid locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Nears Western Oman

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu neared western Oman late on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

There was a small eye at the center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.1.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of producing widespread serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours while it approaches the coast.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could strengthen a little more before it approaches the coast.  When Tropical Cyclone Mekunu approaches the Arabian Peninsula, it will begin to pull drier air into the western side of the circulation.  Mekunu will start to weaken when the drier air reaches the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is moving around the western end of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will steer Mekunu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will make landfall near the border between Oman and Yemen in 12 to 18 hours.  Mekunu will produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force near where the center makes landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur east and west of the core.  It will drop locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be likely.  There could also be a storm surge of 6 to 10 feet (2 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Passes By Socotra Island

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed by Socotra Island on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu passed east of Socotra Island on Wednesday.  However, several strong rainbands in the western half of the tropical cyclone did pass over the island.  Those bands dropped locally heavy rain and they may have produced winds to tropical storm force,  Rain was still falling over parts of the island and the potential for flooding continued.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified quickly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation.  A nearly complete ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The northeastern part of the ring was the weakest section of the eyewall.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The strongest rainbands were south and west of the center of circulation,  Bands northeast of the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  Thunderstorms near the core of Mekunu were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.9.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce weak southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Makunu could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The upper level ridge steered Tropical Cyclone Mekunu toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.   On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could approach the coast of western Oman and eastern Yemen within 48 hours.  Mekunu will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Intensifies Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 55.9°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Socotra Island.  Mekunu was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu became much better organized on Tuesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and eye was evident at the center of circulation on microwave satellite images.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolve around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  The strongest rainbands were in the western and northern parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Mekunu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate some vertical shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge was steering Tropical Cyclone Mekunu toward the northwest.  A general motion toward the north-northwest is forecast for the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will approach Socotra Island within 24 hours.  The strongest part of Mekunu will pass over Socotra Island.  It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur.  Tropical Cyclone Mekunu could approach the coast of western Oman and eastern Yemen in about three days.

Tropical Cyclone 02A Develops Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 57.1°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southeast of Socotra Island.  It was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A center of circulation began to consolidate within a broader area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  Thunderstorms formed west and north of the developing center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms west of the center began to organize into several bands and the circulation began to exhibit the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms near the core of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the developing tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 110 miles (175 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is east of the tropical cyclone.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward of the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone 02A will continue to organize on Tuesday.  It will strengthen and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by the middle of the week.

The ridge to the east of Tropical Cyclone 02A is steering the cyclone toward the northwest.  A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A will pass west of Socotra Island.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to that location.  Tropical Cyclone 02A could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in three or four days.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.