Tag Archives: 03A

Tropical Cyclone 04B Forms over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 04B formed over the Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 83.0°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) east-southeast of Puducherry India and about 200 miles (320 km) east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka. It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of Sri Lanka strengthened on Monday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the low and the wind speeds increased. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification during the next during the next 36 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to keep the tropical cyclone from strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 04B could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon with 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Bay of Bengal. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will pass north of Sri Lanka in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will approach the coast of India near Puducherry in 36 hours. It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the southeast coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern India later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Gati weakened as it moved across northeastern Somalia toward the Gulf of Aden. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 47.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Maydh, Somalia. Gati was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati Intensifies Explosively near Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Gati intensified explosively near the northeast coast of Somalia during Saturday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gati (03A) was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gati strengthened extremely rapidly on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) developed at the center of Gati. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of Gati generated very strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease very rapidly, which contributed to the explosive intensification.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gati was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Gati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.1. The structure of Gati was similar to that of midget typhoons sometimes observed over the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Gati could strengthen further during the next few hours before it makes landfall on the northeast coast of Somalia. Gati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gati will weaken quickly after it makes landfall in Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Gati will move south of a high pressure system over th Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer Gati toward the west during the next 36 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gati wil make landfall near Hafun, Somalia in about six hours. Gati will be capable of causing major damage around Hafun. It will drop heavy rain over parts of northeastern Somalia and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 03A Forms East of Somalia

Tropical Cyclone 03A formed over the Arabian Sea east of Somalia on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03A was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 55.0°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Hafun, Somalia. It was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system east of Somalia on Saturday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 03A. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern portion of an upper level ridge over southern Asia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03A is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours in spite of the wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone 03A will move south of a high pressure system over the Arabian Peninsula. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03A will pass south of Socotra Island during the next 12 hours. It will approach the coast of Somalia near Hafun in about 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northeastern Somalia in about a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa Makes Landfall on Central Coast of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa made landfall on the central coast of Oman near Duqm on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 56.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Duqm, Oman.  Hikaa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall on the central coast of Oman.  Hikaa brought wind and rain to Masirah Island before it reached the coast of Oman.  Tropical Cyclone Hikaa brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast near Duqm when it made landfall.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  The small size of Hikaa will limit the potential for serious damage to locations close to the track of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will drop heavy rain over portions of east-central Oman.  The rain could be heavy enough to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hikaa will weaken quickly as it moves into the drier environment over central Oman.  The small circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa means that it will spin down fairly quickly now that it is over land.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon East of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Arabian Sea east of Oman on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 61.7°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east of Masirah Island.  Hikaa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975mb.

Tropical Storm Hikaa intensified from the equivalent of a minimal tropical storm into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 hours.  A small eye developed quickly at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa was very small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 15  miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Hikaa may have reached its peak intensity.  Hikaa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the atmospheric conditions will become less favorable.  An upper level ridge over southwestern Asia will produce easterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  In addition, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will begin to draw drier air from eastern Africa into the circulation on Tuesday.  Since Hikaa is so small, the tropical cyclone could weaken quickly if the environment becomes less favorable.

The ridge over southwestern Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Hikaa toward the west.  On its anticipated track Hikaa could approach the coast of Oman near Masirah Island in less than 18 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Hikaa will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central coast of Oman near Masirah Island.  Heavy rain could cause isolated flash floods.