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Tropical Cyclone Luban Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Luban made landfall in eastern Yemen near Nishtun on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Nishtun, Yemen.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.ph. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Luban consists of several bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving a center of circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling north and east of the center of circulation.  Drier air is flowing into the western part of the circulation and the showers are lighter in that part of Tropical Cyclone Luban.

Tropical Cyclone Luban was the equivalent of a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Luban will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland and more drier air enters the circulation.  However, rainbands in eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of Yemen and western Oman.  Heavy rain cold cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Forms Over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Luban formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 61.4°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Luban was still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Luban consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough centered over northern India was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the stronger thunderstorms were forming on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Luban will move through a region that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, but the winds are expected to weaken during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Luban is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Luban is between the upper level ridge over India and another upper level ridge over Saudi Arabia.  As a result the steering winds are weak and Luban is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.  When Tropical Cyclone Luban moves farther west, the upper ridge over Saudi Arabia will steer it in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Luban could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in four or five days.

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Megh Close to Landfall in Yemen

Drier air from the Arabian peninsula finally entered the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Megh and most of the convection weakened on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 47.0°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Aden (Adan), Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

As Tropical Cyclone Megh moved closer to the coast of Yemen, it began to draw in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As the drier air penetrated the circulation, it cut off the energy from the convection and most of the thunderstorms dissipated.  Without a continuous supply of new energy Megh weakened and the wind speeds decreased.  As the center of circulation approached the coast, friction over land increased low level convergence and new thunderstorms formed near the center.  Those storms are producing winds to tropical storm force over the Gulf of Aden.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Megh toward the west-northwest.   Tropical Cyclone Megh will make landfall near Ahwar, Yemen in a few hours.  It is still capable of producing locally heavy rain and causing flash flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Hits Socotra Island and Brushes Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Megh moved over Socotra Island, Yemen on Sunday and it passed near the northeast coast of Somalia.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 50.6°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east of Aden (Adan), Yemen and about 35 miles (55 km) north of Cape Guardafui, Somalia.  Megh was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

Although Tropical Cyclone Megh weakened as it moved across Socotra Island, it remains a small, well organized storm.  Megh still has an eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Those storm are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all direction.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is over warm water and the upper level winds are light.  The only negative factors are the proximity to Somalia and drier air over the Arabian peninsula.  As long as the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh stays north of Somalia, it will likely retain most of its intensity.  When Megh starts to get closer to the coast of Yemen, it will begin to draw in some drier air and weaken more rapidly.  Vertical wind shear could also increase in 24 to 36 hours, which would further speed the weakening process.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Megh toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  After that time Megh will reach the western end of the ridge and start to move toward the northwest.  On its expected track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach the coast of Yemen on Tuesday.  It could still be the equivalent of a hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Megh may have caused significant damage on Socotra Island.  It will be capable of producing wind damage when it reaches Yemen, but heavy rain and flooding will be the greater risk.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Megh Nearing Socotra Island

Megh intensified rapidly Saturday into a dangerous tropical cyclone as it neared Socotra Island, Yemen.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is the equivalent of a major hurricane even though it is a small storm.  Megh is a very symmetrical cyclone.  It has a five mile (8 km) wide eye which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The convection in the core is generating upper level divergence which in pumping out mass.  Tropical storm force winds extend out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Megh will remain in a favorable environment until it reaches Socotra Island.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is vertical wind shear.  Megh could intensify further until it reaches Socotra.  It should weaken when the core of the circulation interacts with island.

A subtropical ridge north of Megh is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Megh will reach Socotra Island in a few hours.  it is capable of producing wind damage and flooding.  Since Tropical Cyclone Chapala recently caused damage on Socotra, the impact of Tropical Cyclone Megh could be significant.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Moving Slowly West Over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Megh moved slowly westward over the Arabian Sea on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 60.4°E which put it about 420 miles (680 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The convection around Tropical Cyclone Megh diminished earlier today, but more thunderstorms have formed near the center of circulation during the past few hours.  Megh has a well formed, symmetrical circulation with an eyelike feature at the center.  It is a small cyclone and tropical storm force winds only extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation are starting to generate upper level divergence.

Aside from the possible drier air, the environment surrounding Tropical Cyclone Megh is favorable for intensification,  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The winds in the upper levels are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Now that thunderstorms are redeveloping near the core of the circulation, Tropical  Cyclone Megh should begin to intensify and it is still likely to reach hurricane intensity in a day or two.

A ridge north of Megh is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue during the weekend.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach Socotra Island, Yemen in about 36 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane at that time.  Given the prior damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Chapala, Megh could have a significant impact on Socotra Island.

Tropical Cyclone Megh Forms Over the Arabian Sea

A new tropical cyclone, designated with the name Megh, formed Thursday over the same portion of the Arabian Sea where Tropical Cyclone Chapala developed.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 63.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megh exhibited increased organization on Thursday.  A core of thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and a primary rainband spirals around the northern and western sides of the tropical cyclone.  The thunderstorms near the core of Megh are beginning to generate upper level divergence, especially toward the east.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge north of Megh is generating light northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Megh should continue to intensify and it could reach the equivalent of hurricane intensity in a day or two.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Megh a little south of due west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for several days.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach Socotra Island, Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.  Since the outer portions of Tropical Cyclone Chapala caused damage on Socotra Island, a direct hit by Tropical Cyclone Megh could have a significant impact there.