Tag Archives: 06E

Tropical Storm Gil Forms Over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Gil formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday.  A scatterometer onboard a satellite found winds to tropical storm force northeast of the center of former Tropical Depression Eight-E and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gil.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 122.4°W which put it about 980 miles (1580 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Gil was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to about 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Gil was asymmetrical.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation which was visible on satellite imagery.  However, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the western half of Gil consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough south of California was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation.  The winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Tropical storm force winds were occurring within 80 miles (130 km) of the center of Tropical Storm Gil only in the northeastern quadrant of of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Gil will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Gil will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  However, the upper level trough will continue to cause significant vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification of Tropical Storm Gil.  Gil could weaken to a tropical depression if the shear increases.

Tropical Storm Gil will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Gil in a westward direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gil will move farther away from Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Central Pacific Ocean, strong vertical wind shear was weakening Tropical Storm Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 163.9°W which put it about 480 miles (770 km) southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 144.5°W which put it about 695 miles (1115 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Weakening Tropical Storm Erick Passes South of Hawaii

A weakening Tropical Storm Erick was passing south of Hawaii on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 157.4°W which put it about 310 miles (505 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An upper level trough northwest of the Hawaii Islands was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Erick.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear, which was causing Erick to weaken quickly.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands near the center and in other parts of Tropical Storm Erick consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The stronger winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

A Flash Flood Watch was in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii through Saturday morning.  Counterclockwise flow around Tropical Storm Erick was producing southeasterly which were blowing up the slopes on the Big Island.  The enhanced rising will also increase rainfall on those slopes and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie was showing signs of strengthening back into a hurricane.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Flossie.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 137.8°W which put it about 1145 miles (1845 km) east of HIlo, Hawaii.  Flossie was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Erick Rapidly Intensifies Into Major Hurricane

Erick rapidly intensified into a major hurricane over the the Central Pacific Ocean during Monday night.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 142.8°W which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Erick was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The core of Hurricane Erick intensified rapidly during the overnight hours.  The eye became more circular and distinct on infrared satellite images.  The diameter of the eye was about 12 miles (19 km) on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms in the ring around the eye grew taller and the wind speed around the eye increased quickly.  Storms around the core of Erick generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.

The circulation around Hurricane Erick was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force were occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) of the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erick was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Hurricane Erick will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Erick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next day or so.  Hurricane Erick will approach an upper level trough east of Hawaii on Wednesday.  The trough will produce stronger southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Erick will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Erick will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern and Central North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Erick toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Erick could be south of Hawaii on Thursday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie was nearing hurricane strength over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 120.5°W which put it about 1015 mile (1635 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Flossie was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Hurricane Erik and Tropical Storm Flossie Strengthen

Hurricane Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie both moved westward and strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erick was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 140.0°W which put it about 1110 miles (1790 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Erick was moving west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Erick exhibited greater organization on Monday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms,  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Erick.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Erick will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Erick will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erick will intensify during the next two days and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.  Eventually, Erick will approach an upper level trough east of Hawaii and the vertical wind shear will increase.

Hurricane Erick will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Erick toward the west. On its anticipated track Hurricane Erick could be southeast of Hawaii on Thursday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Flossie was also intensifying.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 895 miles (1445 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Flossie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.  Tropical Storm Flossie is also forecast to move westward and strengthen.

Tropical Storm Fabio Develops West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Fabio developed west of Mexico on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 107.4°W which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Fabio was still organizing.  There was a broad low level center of circulation, but it did not have a well developed inner core.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the broad low level center.  The storms in the rainbands were generating some upper level divergence which was starting to pump mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Fabio will move through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Tropical Storm Fabio will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  However, the wind speed will be similar at all levels and there will not be much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fabio will continue to intensify in the favorable environment.  Once a primary rainband wraps around the center of circulation, an inner core will develop.  Tropical Storm Fabio could intensify rapidly when an eye starts to form.  Fabio could strengthen into a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Fabio was moving south of a subtropical ridge which was steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Fabio will pass well to the south of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Depression Emilia continued to weaken over cooler water.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 123.0°W which put it about 880 miles (1415 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Emilia Develops South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Emilia developed south of Baja California on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 112.4°W which put it about 610 miles (980 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Emilia was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Emilia was asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were occurring in bands west and north of the center of circulation.  The center was located near the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  Bands east of the center consisted of showers and low clouds.  The cluster of storms west of the center of circulation was generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Emilia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Emilia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge centered near the southern tip of Baja California was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why most of the thunderstorms were located west and north of the center of circulation.  The vertical shear is likely to limit intensification during the next 24 hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease on Friday and Tropical Storm Emilia could strengthen faster if that occurs.

The portion of the ridge in the middle troposphere was steering Tropical Storm Emilia toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Emilia will move farther away from the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storms Fernanda and Greg Continue West Across the Pacific

Tropical Storms Fernanda and Greg continued to move west across the Pacific Ocean on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 141.4°W which put it about 900 miles (1445 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fernanda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 117.4°W which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Greg was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernanda is moving through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification.  Fernanda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 26°C.  An upper level trough northeast of Hawaii is producing southwesterly winds which are causing strong vertical wind shear over Fernanda.  Tropical Storm Fernanda has a strong low level circulation but the vertical wind shear will blow the tops off any new thunderstorms that form.  The shear is likely to cause Fernanda to continue to weaken and the low level circulation is likely to gradually spin down.

Tropical Storm Greg did not intensify much on Thursday but recent satellite images seem to indicate that Greg may be getting more organized.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms has wrapped about two thirds of the way around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Fernanda, which is farther west and an upper level low northwest of Greg were generating strong southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Greg.  The upper low appears to be moving farther away from Greg.  Tropical Storm Greg is moving over water where the SST is near 28°C.  If the vertical shear diminishes and the circulation organizes, then there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to allow Greg to intensify into a hurricane.

A subtropical ridge north of Greg is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general westerly motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Greg could take a path similar to the track of Tropical Storm Fernanda.

Active East Pacific With Fernanda, Greg and TD 8E

The tropical Eastern North Pacific Ocean continued to be very active on Tuesday with Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 134.4°W which put it about 1375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fernanda was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Greg was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 119.9°W which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Although Hurricane Fernanda is the strongest of the three tropical cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, it is slowly weakening as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  Hurricane Fernanda is over water where the SSTs are near 26.5°C and it will move over cooler water as it moves west toward Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Greg strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over water where the SSTs are near 29°C.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional showers and thunderstorms formed closer to the center.  Greg is also expected to move west as it moves south of a subtropical ridge.

The future of Tropical Depression Eight-E is less certain.  Upper level divergence from Hurricane Fernanda is creating strong vertical wind shear over the stop of the depression.  The strong wind shear is causing the circulation of the depression to be poorly organized.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the northern portion of the circulation because of the strong shear.  The stronger upper level winds could shear the top of the circulation away from the lower level circulation of the depression.  It is also possible that Tropical Storm Greg could catch up to the depression and absorb the remnants of the depression into its circulation.

Hurricane Fernanda Slowly Weakens As It Moves West

Hurricane Fernanda weakened slowly as it moved farther west over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 129.2°W which put it about 1440 miles (2315 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Fernanda completed at least one eyewall replacement cycle in which an outer eyewall formed around the original eyewall.  Eventually, the inner eyewall dissipated and a larger eye formed inside the outer eyewall.  The eyewall replacement cycle weakened Hurricane Fernanda when the stronger, inner eyewall dissipated.  Although Hurricane Fernanda is weaker, it is still a powerful hurricane.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms still surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Hurricane Fernanda are generating strong upper level divergence which are pumping out mass in all directions.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Fernanda will gradually move over cooler SSTs.  When Fernanda moves over the cooler SSTs, it will extract less energy from the ocean and the hurricane will continue to weaken.  The weakening could occur very gradually because the wind shear is limited.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving south of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  The subtropical high is expected to steer Fernanda toward the west-northwest during the next several days.

Hurricane Fernanda Intensifies Rapidly to Category 4

Hurricane Fernanda intensified rapidly to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 119.7°W which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Fernanda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A clear circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Fernanda.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Fernanda.  There are more bands in the eastern half of the hurricane, but the overall circulation is fairly symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Fernanda are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Fernanda is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.1.  The indices indicate that Hurricane Fernanda is somewhat similar in size and strength to Hurricane Charley in 2004 when Charley was approaching the southwest coast of Florida.

Hurricane Fernanda will remain in an environment very favorable for intensification for another 24 to 48 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28.5°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Fernanda has a chance to intensify into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it moves into a less favorable environment.  When a hurricane becomes as intense as Hurricane Fernanda is, an outer rainband can wrap around the eye and an eyewall replacement cycle can occur.  If an eyewall replacement cycle occurs in Hurricane Fernanda, then fluctuations in intensity may also happen.  Eventually Fernanda will move over cooler SSTs and the hurricane will start to weaken.

Hurricane Fernanda is moving south of a subtropical ridge and the ridge is steering the hurricane a little south of due west.  A general westward motion is forecast to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Fernanda will continue to move farther away from Mexico.  Fernanda could approach Hawaii by the end of next week.