Tag Archives: 06S

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 57.8°E which put it about 310 miles (505 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was very well organized.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cilida was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.6.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida may have peaked in intensity, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C for about another 24 hours.  Then it will start to move over colder waters.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move toward the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase in about 36 hours.  When Cilida moves over colder water and under stronger upper level winds, it will weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will start to steer Cilida toward the southeast on Saturday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida could be a little northeast of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  It will still be a powerful tropical cyclone at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga continued to weaken well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Quickly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cilida quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida intensified quickly on Thursday.  A symmetrical, circular eye appeared more distinctly on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms near the core of Cilida generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speed increased in response to a larger pressure gradient force.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will get stronger during the next day or so unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Cilida to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge is likely to steer Cilida toward the southwest for another 12 hours or so.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  In 36 to 48 hours Cilida will begin to be affected by the westerly winds in the middle latitudes and those winds will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast,  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius in about 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga weakened slowly well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 80.2°E which put it about 825 miles (1330 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Cilida formed north of Mauritius on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 59.8°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida organized quickly on Wednesday. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A strong band of storms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Cilida.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cilida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Cilida is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday and it could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cilida toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius from the north in about 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga drifted southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 910 miles (1470 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 82.6°E which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga.  Storms around the core of Kenanga were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga may be near its peak intensity.  Kenanga is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but it will start to move over slightly cooler water during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga is in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, Kenanga will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes later this week and the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or so.  Kenanga could weaken more quickly later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will move south of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Kenanga toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone 07S developed north-northeast of Mauritius.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07S was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 60.8°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Cyclone Phethai Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Phethai brought wind and rain to parts of eastern India on Sunday night.  The center of Phethai made landfall southwest of Visakhapatnam, India near the Mouths of the Godavari.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 82.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Visakhapatnam.  Phethai was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai strengthened earlier on Sunday, but it started to weaken slightly when it approached the east coast of India.  Phethai moved over slightly cooler water as it moved farther north over the western Bay of Bengal.  Tropical Cyclone Phethai moved closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear increased.  Cooler water and more wind shear caused Phethai to start to weaken when it approached the coast.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Phethai started to weaken when it approached the coast of India, the circulation remained well organized.  There was a distinct center of circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring just to the west of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were located north and east of the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai is moving around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over southeast Asia.  The ridge will steer Phethai in a north-northeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Phethai will move over eastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Orissa.  Phethai will drop locally heavy rain as it moves inland and flash flooding could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga strengthened over the South Indian Ocean.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 83.7°E which put it about 1095 miles (1770 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai Forms Over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Phethai formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Phethai was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 84.5°E which put it about 480 miles (775 km) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Phethai was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring northwest of the center of circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms southeast of the center, although several bands of thunderstorms were developing on the eastern periphery of the circulation.  Storms northwest of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Phethai will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Phethai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move around the eastern end of an upper level ridge over southeast Asia.  The ridge is already producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear is the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The wind shear will continue and it will inhibit the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Phethai.  Phethai could strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the rate of intensification is likely to be slow.

The ridge over southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Phethai north-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Phethai will move toward the east coast of India.  Tropical Cyclone Phethai could approach the coast near Visakhaptnam in about 48 hours.  Phethai will bring gusty winds but heavy rain and flooding will be greater risks.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone 06S formed over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06S was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 91.2°E which put it about 1285 miles (2070 km) east of Diego Garcia.  It was moving toward the south-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Speeds Past La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta sped past La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 54.3°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of La Reunion.  Berguitta was moving toward the west-southwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moved past La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  So, parts of La Reunion may have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force would have occurred over all of La Reunion.  Berguitta also dropped locally heavy rain over La Reunion and flooding is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move into an environment that will become increasingly less favorable for a tropical cyclone as it moves away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C, but it will move over colder water when it moves farther south.  An upper level trough west of Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of colder water and increased shear will slowly weaken Tropical Cyclone Berguitta.  Berguitta will likely make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  It is expected to continue to move toward the southwest for another day or so.  At that time Berguitta will move around the western end of the ridge and it will move more toward the south.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is expected move steadily away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is forecast to stay east of Madagascar.  Weather conditions on La Reunion should gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moves away.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Brings Wind, Rain to Mauritius & La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was bringing wind and rain to Mauritius and La Reunion late Wednesday as it closed in on those places.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it approached Mauritius and La Reunion.  A partial eyewall surrounded the remnant of the eye.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the rainband.  Numerous bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was still generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was moving through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Berguitta is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, but they may not be strong enough to weaken the storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will reach Mauritius within six hours.  The center of Berguitta will be near La Reunion in 12 to 14 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will bring strong, gusty winds to Mauritius and La Reunion on Thursday.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over those places.  The center could pass right over Mauritius and the winds to hurricane/typhoon force could blow over it.  The center could pass just to the east of La Reunion, but winds to hurricane/typhoon force could also blow across it.  Berguitta will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause floods.  The winds could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 1.5 meters) on the eastern shores where the winds will be blowing water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Moves Closer to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moved closer to Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta weakened a little on Tuesday but it remained a dangerous tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge southeast of Berguitta produced easterly winds which caused some vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone.  Satellite imagery also suggested that Berguitta could have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle.  The combination of increased wind shear and a possible eyewall replacement cycle altered the structure of Berguitta.  Microwave satellite images intermittently indicated the presence of an eye at the center of circulation.  However, almost all of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  The increased shear probably caused the asymmetrical distribution of storms.

Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will likely prevent Berguitta from intensifying significantly.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is forecast to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, but it could maintain most of its intensity, since it is still over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius in 24 hours.  Berguitta is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mauritius.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause serious flooding.  The strong winds could generate a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach La Reunion within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 62.4°E which put it about 375 miles (600 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed is 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  A well formed circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 215 miles (345 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a strong tropical cyclone for several more days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is moving through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is likely to maintain its intensity as the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could intensify further during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general motion toward the southwest is forecast to continue for two or three more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 48 hours.  Berguitta could reach La Reunion in less than 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is a dangerous storm.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.7.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is capable of causing regional major damage.  Berguitta will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flooding  and Berguitta could generate a storm surge at the coast.