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Tropical Cyclone Chalane Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall in Mozambique on Tuesday night. At 9:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 35.3°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northeast of Beira, Mozambique. Chalane was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall just to the north of Beira, Mozambique on Tuesday night. Chalane intensified until it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Chalane was almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at the time of landfall. An elliptical eye was at the center of Chalane. The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Chalane.

Tropical Storm Chalane will move north of a high pressure system over southern Africa and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move across central Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Chalane will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. It will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Strengthens East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Chalane strengthened east of Mozambique on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 39.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east of Beira, Mozambique. Chalane was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chalane was much more symmetrical and it exhibited better organization on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming at the center of Chalane. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Chalane was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds near the axis of the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will intensify today and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next two days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will make landfall near Beira, Mozambique in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique. Chalane will bring strong winds to the portion of the coast near Beira. It could cause a storm surge at the coast of up to 7 feet (2 meters). Tropical Cyclone Chalane will drop heavy rain over parts of central Mozambique and flash floods could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Emerges over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.3°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) east-northeast of Europa Island. Chalane was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

After crossing central Madagascar during the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Chalane emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Monday. The circulation around Chalane remained relatively intact despite crossing mountains on Madagascar. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Chalane will move over water in the Mozambique Channel where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The winds near the axis of the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass near Europa Island in 18 hours. Chalane could approach the central coast of Mozambique in 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Makes Landfall in Madgascaar

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of Madagascar on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 49.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Toamasina, Madagascar. Chalane was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of northeast Madagascar between Fenoarivo and Toamasina on Saturday. The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of the tropical cyclone. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western and southern parts of Chalane.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move west-southwest across central Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center will pass a little north of Antananarivo. The mountains will disrupt the lower levels of the circulation and Chalane will weaken while it is over land. However, Tropical Cyclone Chalane will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Madagascar. The rain will be heaviest where winds push air up the slopes and flash floods could occur in regions of steep terrain.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move over the Mozambique Channel in a day or so. If the middle and upper parts of the circulation remain relatively intact, then Chalane could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm. Tropical Cyclone Chalane or the remnants of its circulation could approach Mozambique in 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Swirls Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Chalane swirled toward Madagascar on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 53.3°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east of Mananara, Madagascar. Chalane was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chalane exhibited more organization on Friday, but the it was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Chalane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands south of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the south side of Tropical Cyclone Chalane. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Chalane.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. However, the winds will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone Chalane from intensifying during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will approach northern Madagascar in about 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Forms Northeast of La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Chalane formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of La Reunion on Thursday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 58.2°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north-northeast of La Reunion. Chalane was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of La Reunion strengthened on Thursday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Chalane. The circulation around Chalane was still organizing. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Chalane was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. The strongest winds were occurring in those rainbands. Bands in other parts of Chalane consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Chalane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification during the next 12 hours. Chalane will move into an area where the upper level winds will be weaker on Friday and it could strengthen more.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move south of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Chalane toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chalane will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion. Chalane could approach northern Madagascar in about 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Chalane will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 117.9°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia strengthened over the warm water northwest of Australia on Sunday.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Claudia.  The stronger rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Claudia from getting strong during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will remain well off the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Claudia developed northwest of Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 125.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.  The Warning zone includes Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

A Tropical Low moved westward across northern Australia late last week.  The circulation around the low pressure system began to organize when the system moved over Timor Sea west of Darwin on Saturday.  The wind speed increased and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Claudia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms formed quickly in other bands north and west of the center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in rainbands south and east of the center, but much of that part of the circulation was still over western Australia.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Claudia from strengthening.  Claudia could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The core of Claudia with the strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Passes East of Mauritius

Strong Tropical Cyclone Cilida passed east of Mauritius on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida was being steered to the south-southeast between an upper level trough near Madagascar and a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  Those weather systems steered Cilida east of Mauritius.  Northwesterly winds blowing on the eastern side of the upper level trough were causing vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida was weakening, but it was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of Cilida.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  Cilida passed far enough to the east of Mauritius that the strongest winds remained offshore.  A weather station at Belle Mare on the east coast of Mauritius reported a maximum wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  An automated weather station on Signal Mountain reported a maximum wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Cilida probably brought winds to tropical storm force to Mauritius, especially at higher elevations.

The stronger rainbands around Tropical Cyclone Cilida also passed east of Mauritius.  Cilida dropped light rain over most of Mauritius.  Heavier rain did fall over locations where the wind blew up the slopes of ridges and mountains.  1.44 inches (36.6 mm) of rain fell at Mon Bois and 1.31 inches (33.4 mm) fell at Mare Aux Vacoas.

The upper level trough over Madagascar will continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Cilida toward the south-southeast.  On its anticipated track Cilida will move farther away from Mauritius.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 57.8°E which put it about 310 miles (505 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was very well organized.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cilida was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.6.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida may have peaked in intensity, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C for about another 24 hours.  Then it will start to move over colder waters.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move toward the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase in about 36 hours.  When Cilida moves over colder water and under stronger upper level winds, it will weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will start to steer Cilida toward the southeast on Saturday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida could be a little northeast of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  It will still be a powerful tropical cyclone at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga continued to weaken well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.