Tag Archives: 07S

Tropical Cyclone Claudia Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Claudia developed northwest of Australia on Saturday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 125.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north-northeast of Kuri Bay, Australia.  Claudia was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.  The Warning zone includes Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

A Tropical Low moved westward across northern Australia late last week.  The circulation around the low pressure system began to organize when the system moved over Timor Sea west of Darwin on Saturday.  The wind speed increased and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Claudia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms formed quickly in other bands north and west of the center.  There were fewer thunderstorms in rainbands south and east of the center, but much of that part of the circulation was still over western Australia.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Claudia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Cyclone Claudia from strengthening.  Claudia could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer Claudia toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Claudia will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The core of Claudia with the strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Passes East of Mauritius

Strong Tropical Cyclone Cilida passed east of Mauritius on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida was being steered to the south-southeast between an upper level trough near Madagascar and a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  Those weather systems steered Cilida east of Mauritius.  Northwesterly winds blowing on the eastern side of the upper level trough were causing vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida was weakening, but it was still the equivalent of a major hurricane.  There was a circular eye at the center of Cilida.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  Cilida passed far enough to the east of Mauritius that the strongest winds remained offshore.  A weather station at Belle Mare on the east coast of Mauritius reported a maximum wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  An automated weather station on Signal Mountain reported a maximum wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Cilida probably brought winds to tropical storm force to Mauritius, especially at higher elevations.

The stronger rainbands around Tropical Cyclone Cilida also passed east of Mauritius.  Cilida dropped light rain over most of Mauritius.  Heavier rain did fall over locations where the wind blew up the slopes of ridges and mountains.  1.44 inches (36.6 mm) of rain fell at Mon Bois and 1.31 inches (33.4 mm) fell at Mare Aux Vacoas.

The upper level trough over Madagascar will continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Cilida toward the south-southeast.  On its anticipated track Cilida will move farther away from Mauritius.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Cilida strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 57.8°E which put it about 310 miles (505 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was very well organized.  A circular eye was at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cilida was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.6.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida may have peaked in intensity, but it will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone for another 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C for about another 24 hours.  Then it will start to move over colder waters.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move toward the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase in about 36 hours.  When Cilida moves over colder water and under stronger upper level winds, it will weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will start to steer Cilida toward the southeast on Saturday.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida could be a little northeast of Mauritius in about 24 hours.  It will still be a powerful tropical cyclone at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Kenanga continued to weaken well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 78.5°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Quickly Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cilida quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida intensified quickly on Thursday.  A symmetrical, circular eye appeared more distinctly on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Storms near the core of Cilida generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speed increased in response to a larger pressure gradient force.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will get stronger during the next day or so unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Cilida to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge is likely to steer Cilida toward the southwest for another 12 hours or so.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  In 36 to 48 hours Cilida will begin to be affected by the westerly winds in the middle latitudes and those winds will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast,  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius in about 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga weakened slowly well to the southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 80.2°E which put it about 825 miles (1330 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida Forms North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Cilida formed north of Mauritius on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cilida was located at latitude 12.2°S and longitude 59.8°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Cilida was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Cilida organized quickly on Wednesday. A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  A strong band of storms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Cilida.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cilida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cilida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Cilida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Cilida is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday and it could intensify rapidly.  Tropical Cyclone Cilida could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cilida will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cilida toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cilida could approach Mauritius from the north in about 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Kenanga drifted southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 910 miles (1470 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 82.6°E which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Kenanga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga intensified quickly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Tuesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kenanga.  Storms around the core of Kenanga were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga may be near its peak intensity.  Kenanga is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but it will start to move over slightly cooler water during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga is in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, Kenanga will move closer to upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes later this week and the vertical wind shear will increase.  Tropical Cyclone Kenanga could maintain its intensity or weaken slowly during the next day or so.  Kenanga could weaken more quickly later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will move south of a subtropical ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The ridge will continue to steer Kenanga toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenanga will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone 07S developed north-northeast of Mauritius.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07S was located at latitude 10.9°S and longitude 60.8°E which put it about 690 miles (1115 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  It was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Meanders South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Cebile has meandered south of Diego Garcia throughout this week.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 75.8°E which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Although it completed at least one eyewall replacement cycle, Tropical Cyclone Cebile maintains an impressive structure.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile remains in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is generally near 28°C.  However, Cebile has moved slowly during the past several days and its circulation may have mixed cooler water to the surface in some locations.  The upper level winds are currently weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile could maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours unless it mixes more cool water to the surface.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will increase the vertical wind shear in a day or two and Cebile could weaken more quickly when that occurs.

Cebile is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering the tropical slowly toward the southwest.  The approaching upper level trough will begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Cebile more toward the southeast in a day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile is forecast to move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Intensifies Rapidly Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified rapidly on Sunday from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 82.5°E which put it about 850 miles (1375 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours as it moved through a very favorable environment.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is very well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  Rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cebile is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.8.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile continues to move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Cebile is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is likely to intensify further and it could become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Cebile is moving near the western part of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile will remain well south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Cyclone 08S was moving near the northern end of New Caledonia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 08S was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Forms East of Diego Garcia

After a relatively quiet week in the tropics Tropical Cyclone Cebile formed east of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 84.2°E which put it about 870 miles (1405 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile organized rapidly on Saturday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an elliptical eye appeared to be developing at the center.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cebile.  There were more thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation, but there were rainbands in all quadrants of Cebile.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Cebile is moving just to the north of the axis of a subtropical ridge that runs east to west across the Southern Indian Ocean.  The northern half of the ridge is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  A combination of warm water and minimal vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Cebile to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly.  Cebile is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next week.

The subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Cebile toward the southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile is expected to move southeast of Diego Garcia.