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Weakening Tropical Storm Lane Moves Away from Hawaii

A weakening Tropical Storm Lane moved away from Hawaii on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 160.2°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  All Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.

An upper level trough west of the Hawaiian Islands produced strong southwesterly winds which blew the upper portion of the circulation of former Hurricane Lane off the lower part of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Lane consisted primarily of a well develop low level circulation of bands of showers and lower clouds.  A few thunderstorms continued to develop in outer bands on the eastern side of the circulation.

Since Tropical Storm Lane exists primarily in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge over the Central Pacific Ocean.  A general westerly motion is forecast during the next several days.  The upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear and Tropical Storm Lane will continue to weaken.

Hurricane Lane Edges Closer to Hawaii

Hurricane Lane edged closer to Hawaii on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 157.9°W which put it about 150 miles (245 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Oahu and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Hawaii County.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Niihau.  Flash Flood Watches were in effect for all Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane Lane weakened gradually on Friday.  There was no longer an eye at the center of circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in  a band northwest of the center.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain were occurring in that band of storms.  Other rainbands in the northern half of the circulation were revolving around the center of Hurricane Lane.  The bands in the southern half of the circulation were weaker and they consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles from the center of circulation, primarily on the northern side of Lane.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lane will continue to weaken on Saturday.  An upper level trough west of the Hawaiian Islands is producing strong southwesterly winds which were causing significant vertical wind shear.  Those winds were tilting the circulation toward the northeast and they were inhibiting upper level divergence to the west of the hurricane.  The slow movement of Hurricane Lane is allowing the wind to mix cooler water to the surface of the ocean.  Significant vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Lane to weaken.  If the upper level winds become strong enough, there is the chance that they could blow the upper part of the circulation away from the lower level circulation.

The upper level trough will push Hurricane Lane slowly toward the north during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane will get closer to Maui and Oahu.  When most of the stronger, taller thunderstorms weaken, then Lane will be steered more by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Those winds are blowing from east to west and they are forecast to Lane toward the west just before the center reaches Oahu and Maui.  Although Hurricane Lane will cause gusty winds, locally heavy rain and flash floods are the greatest risks.  Heavy rain has already fallen on the Big Island of Hawaii and Flash Flood Watches have been issued for all of the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane Lane Drops Heavy Rain on Hawaii

Hurricane Lane dropped heavy rain on Hawaii on Thursday.  The airport in Hilo, Hawaii reported 14.02 inches (356 mm) of rain during the past 24 hours.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 157.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Oahu and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Kauai County including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Hawaii County.

Hurricane Lane began to weaken on Thursday.  An upper level trough west of Hawaii was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the hurricane.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were obstructing upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Lane.  The wind shear prevented the circulation from pumping as much mass away from the hurricane and the surface pressure began to increase.

Hurricane Lane retained a strong circulation in spite of increased vertical wind shear.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (205 km) from the center.  The core of Hurricane Lane passed over NOAA buoy 51002.  The strongest winds occurred in the northern eyewall.  The buoy measured a sustained wind speed of 83 m.p.h. (133 km/h).  It also reported a wind gust to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The winds were significantly weaker in the southern half of the circulation.

The upper level trough gradually turned Hurricane Lane more toward the north on Thursday.  A general motion toward the north is forecast for Friday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane could approach Maui and Oahu on Friday night.  Lane is forecast to weaken further during the next 24 hours.  Guidance from numerical models suggests that the weaker circulation will be steered by winds in the lower levels when it nears Maui and Oahu.  The models are forecasting a turn toward the west.  Hurricane Lane could cause gusty winds and power outages.  The greater risk will be caused by the locally heavy rain, which will create the potential for flash floods.  Flash floods may develop very quickly in areas of steep terrain.

Hurricane Lane Turns Northwest, Warning Issued for Oahu

Hurricane Lane turned toward the northwest on Wednesday night and a Hurricane Warning was issued for Oahu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 156.5°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Oahu, Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for Kauai County including Kauai and Nihhau.

Hurricane Lane weakened slightly on Wednesday but it remained a powerful hurricane.  There was a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

The environment around Hurricane Lane will gradually become less favorable for a powerful hurricane.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough west of Hawaii will produce southwesterly winds which will cause more vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lane will gradually weaken, but it could remain a major hurricane for another 36 hours.

The upper level trough will turn Hurricane Lane more toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Lane will move closer to Hawaii.  The center of Lane will be southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii in about 24 hours.  The center of Lane could be south of Oahu on Friday.  Even if the center of Hurricane Lane does not pass over any of the islands, wind blowing up the slopes of the mountains will contribute to locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods.

Powerful Hurricane Lane Prompts Hurricane Watches for Hawaii

A potential threat from powerful Hurricane Lane prompted the Central Pacific Pacific Hurricane Center to issued Hurricane Watches for parts of Hawaii on Tuesday morning.  Hurricane Watches were issued for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 152.3°W which put it about 620 miles (995 km) southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Lane is very well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation and the eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lane.  A NOAA P-3 aircraft encountered strong turbulence during a mission into Lane last night and the aircraft will be examined before it flies again.  Storms around the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Lane has a large symmetrical circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 240 miles (390 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.3.  Those indices indicate that Hurricane Lane was stronger and larger than Hurricane Dennis was when Dennis hit the northern Gulf Coast in 2005.

Hurricane Lane will move through an environment capable of supporting a major hurricane for another 24 to 48 hours.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is between 27°C and 28°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak during the next 24 hours and there will be little vertical wind shear during that time period.  An upper level trough west of Hawaii will move closer to Hurricane Lane on Wednesday.  Southwesterly winds on the eastern side of the trough will increase the vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lane is likely to weaken on Wednesday, but it could weaken slowly.

Hurricane Lane is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge has been steering Lane toward the west.  Hurricane Lane will turn more toward the northwest when it reaches the end of the ridge.  The upper level trough could steer Lane more toward the north on Thursday and Friday.  Guidance from forecast models has been trending toward a track closer to Hawaii and that prompted the issuance of Hurricane Watches for some of the Hawaiian Islands.

Major Hurricane Lane Churns Southeast of Hawaii

Major Hurricane Lane churned southeast of Hawaii on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 149.1°W which put it about 580 miles (930 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  Th minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

There was a circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) at the center of Hurricane Lane.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lane.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

The circulation of Hurricane Lane was relatively compact.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (205 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Lane was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4.

Hurricane Lane will move through an environment during the next day or two that will allow it to maintain much of its intensity.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are relatively weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lane could remain a major hurricane for several more days.  An upper level trough will approach the hurricane from the west in 36 to 48 hours.  Stronger southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will increase vertical wind shear and Hurricane Lane will likely weaken later this week.

Hurricane Lane will move south of a subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The ridge will steer Lane in a general westerly direction.  The upper level trough approaching from the west will turn Hurricane Lane more toward the northwest.  The timing and sharpness of the turn toward the northwest is still uncertain, but Hurricane Lane could move closer to the Hawaiian Islands during the middle of the week.

Lane Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane on Way to Central Pacific

Hurricane Lane intensified into a major hurricane on it way toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 135.6°W which put it about 1405 miles (2260 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Hurricane Lane exhibited the structure of a major hurricane on satellite imagery.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several spiral bands were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lane will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Lane is likely to intensify more during the next 24 hours.  If one of the rainbands wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause a weakening of Hurricane Lane.

Hurricane Lane will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lane in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane could be southeast of Hawaii in about four days.

Lane Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lane strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 129.8°W which put it about 1780 miles (2865 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Lane became much better organized.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and it could become an eyewall.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lane.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lane will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lane will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly once a well developed eye forms.

Hurricane Lane will move south of the subtropical high over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Lane in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane could be southeast of Hawaii by early next week.

Tropical Storm Lane Forms Southwest of Baja Califonia

Tropical Storm Lane formed southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 1235 miles (1990 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lane was loving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed on Wednesday morning within a tropical wave southwest of Baja California.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lane when more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lane was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form and to revolve around the core of Tropical Storm Lane.  Storms in the core started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Lane will move through an environment very favorable for intensification.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lane will intensify and it could become a hurricane within 36 hours.  When an eye forms and the core of the circulation is well established, Lane could intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Lane will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The ridge will steer Lane westward.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lane will move farther away from Baja California and in the general direction of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Lidia Weakens, Still Raining on Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia has weakened but it is producing rain over Baja California.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Lidia was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose de Las Palomas, from Mulege to Isla San Luis and from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lidia weakened during the past 24 hours as it slowly moved northwest over Baja California.  There are some indications that the upper portion of the circulation may have decoupled from the lower half of Tropical Storm Lidia.  The upper portion of the circulation appears to be over the Gulf of California.  There are stronger thunderstorms over the Gulf of California because the Sea Surface Temperature is near 32°C in that body of water.  Those thunderstorms are producing heavy rain over parts of the eastern side of Baja California and the western part of Mexico adjacent to the Gulf of California.  The lower level center appears to be located northeast of Punta Eugenia over the Pacific Ocean just west of Baja California.  There are showers and thunderstorms near the low level center and they are dropping heavy rain in that area.  The potential for flash floods still exists in the areas where heavy rain is falling.

The low level center of Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to continue to move toward the northwest.  Lidia will continue to weaken because the low level center is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 23°C.  It will take several more days for the low level center to spin down and it could still produce locally heavy rain over the northern part of Baja California during that time.  The upper level portion of the circulation will likely be absorbed by the larger scale environmental flow in those levels.  Some clouds and moisture in the upper levels could flow over the southwestern U.S.