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Tropical Storm Madeline Passes South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Madeline passed south of the southern tip of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Madeline was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Madeline strengthened on Monday before it move south of the southern tip of Baja California. Even though Tropical Storm Madeline was stronger on Monday, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center of circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Madeline’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southwest of the center of Madeline generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southwest of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Madeline.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Madeline will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Mexico. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Madeline’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Madeline to gradually weaken during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move around the southern end of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Madeline toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Madeline will move farther away from Baja California.

Tropical Storm Madeline Spins West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Madeline continued to spin over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Sunday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 107.6°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Madeline was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Satellite images of Tropical Storm Madeline on Sunday evening gave indications that Madelline might be getting more organized. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Madeline’s circulation. Other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Madeline and on the far eastern side of the circulation. The new thunderstorms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Madeline.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Madeline will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near the west coast of Mexico. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Madeline’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent it. Tropical Storm Madeline could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Madeline toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Madeline could be south of Baja California on Monday evening.

Tropical Storm Madeline Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Storm Madeline formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Madeline was moving toward the north at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Saturday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Madeline. The circulation around Tropical Storm Madeline was still organizing on Saturday afternoon. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. However, the bands close to the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and western edges of Madeline’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Madeline. The winds in the northern side of Madeline were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Madeline will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Madeline’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent it. Tropical Storm Madeline could intensify gradually during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Madeline will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Madeline toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Madeline could be south of Baja California on Monday morning.

Tropical Storm Nora Brings Rain to West Coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Nora brought rain to the west coast of Mexico on Sunday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Topolobampo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Nora moved northward along the west coast of Mexico on Sunday. The center passed near Mazatlan and Culiacan. The center remained over land during its northward track and former Hurricane Nora weakened to a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Nora dropped heavy rain over parts of Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango. The heavy rain may have caused flash floods in some location.

Tropical Storm Nora will continue to move toward the north-northwest near the west coast of Mexico during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Nora will remain over land. So, Tropical Storm Nora will continue to weaken. Nora could bring locally heavy rain to Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua as the tropical storm weakens over northwestern Mexico. The risk of flash floods will be high in those location.s

Hurricane Nora Makes Landfall South of Puerto Vallarta

Hurricane Nora made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta on Saturday evening. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Altata, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz, Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Nora made landfall south of Puerto Vallarta near Vincente Guerrero, Mexico on Saturday evening. Hurricane force winds extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Nora at the time of landfall. Tropical storm force winds extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Nora. Nora was dropping heavy rain on parts of Jalisco and Colima. The potential for flash floods was high.

Hurricane Nora is forecast to move toward the north along the west coast of Mexico. Nora is likely to weaken as the center moves along the coast. Hurricane Nora will pull drier air over Mexico into the circulation. The drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. If the drier air gets to the core of Nora, it could dissipate. However, if the center of Hurricane Nora moves back over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, then Nora could maintain its intensity while it is over water. Nora would be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It would be in a region where the upper level winds are weak and there would be little vertical wind shear.

Nora Strengthens to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Nora strengthened to a hurricane south of Mexico early on Saturday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nora was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 105.4°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to San Blas, Mexico. Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo and from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo and from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Nora strengthened to a hurricane early on Saturday morning. Infrared and microwave satellite images showed that an eye was forming at the center of Nora. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Nora. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northeast quadrant of Nora. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Nora will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Nora could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Nora could pull drier air over Mexico into its circulation when it moves closer to the coast. The drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms and Nora could start to weaken when the center gets close to the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Nora will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Nora toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Nora could be very near Manzanillo on Saturday night. Nora will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Mexico. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in Colima, Jalisco and Guadalajara.

Tropical Storm Nora Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Nora formed south of Acapulco, Mexico on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 100.8°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Nora was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

An area of low pressure south of Acapulco, Mexico exhibited more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nora. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Nora was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Nora. Bands in the north half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Nora began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered near Baja California. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nora’s circulation. Those winds are already causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Nora from intensifying during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nora will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Nora toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nora could approach the west coast of Mexico on Friday night. Nora could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane when it approaches the coast.

Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle Form West of Mexico

Tropical Storms Hernan and Iselle formed west of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 106.2°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Hernan was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Hernan was not well organized.  An upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Hernan.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  As a result of the shear, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of the circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Hernan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles in the southern half of Hernan.  Winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hernan will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Hernan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear, which will inhibit potential intensification.  Tropical Storm Hernan is likely to weaken on Friday when it moves over colder water.  Hernan could approach the southern end of Baja California on Friday.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 115.8°W which put it about 560 miles (900 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Iselles was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Iselle was also not well organized.  It was being sheared by the same upper level ridge that was causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Hernan.  Most of the thunderstorms in Iselle were also occurring in the southern half of the circulation.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 100 miles from the center in the southern half of Tropical Storm Iselle.  Iselle will also move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.

Hurricane Lorena Near Cabo San Lucas

Hurricane Lorena moved near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lorena was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 109.3°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro and from La Paz to Santa Rosalia.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from Topolobampo to Guaymas and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

The circulation around Hurricane Lorena strengthened quickly when it reached the very warm water at the southern end of the Gulf of Calfiornia.  A small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the compact inner core of Hurricane Lorena.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The future intensity of Hurricane Lorena will depend entirely on its track.  If Hurricane Lorena moves over Baja California, it will weaken quickly when it moves over the mountains.  However, if the small circulation around Lorena remains over the very warm water in the Gulf of California, then the hurricane could strengthen further.  The numerical models have been trending toward keeping Hurricane Lorena over water for a longer period of time, but the center of the hurricane is very close to the southern end of Baja California.

Hurricane Lorena moved into a region where the steering currents are weak, which is why Lorena is nearly stationary.  The southern end of a trough over the western U.S. will try to steer Hurricane Lorena toward the north-northeast.  However, mountains in Baja California sometimes block westerly winds in the lower levels.  A slightly larger circulation around Tropical Storm Mario could pull Hurricane Lorena toward the west.  The future track of Hurricane Lorena is highly uncertain.  Hurricane Lorena could move over Baja California or it could move farther north into the Gulf of California.

The center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  The future of Tropical Storm Mario will depend on how much its circulation interacts with the circulation around Hurricane Lorena.  Mario is currently about 350 miles (565 km) south of Hurricane Lorena.

Tropical Storm Lorena Moves Toward Baja California

Tropical Storm Lorena moved toward Baja California on Thursday night after brushing the west coast of Mexico earlier in the day.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lorena was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Puerto Cortes, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect from La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Evaristo.

When the center of former Hurricane Lorena passed near the west coast of Mexico, the eastern part of the circulation passes over mountains.  The mountains disrupted the flow of air and some drier air was pulled into the hurricane.  The disruption and drier air weakened the inner core of the circulation and caused Lorena to weaken to a tropical storm.  The inner core was beginning to redevelop on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation and other thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Lorena will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lorena is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorena will move around the western part of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Lorena toward the northwest.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena will interact with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is southwest of Lorena.  It looked like Lorena was pulling Mario toward the northeast on Thursday night.  However, it is possible that Mario could tug Lorena more toward the west on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lorena will approach the southern tip of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  Lorena is likely to be a hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mario was southwest of Lorena and Tropical Storm Kiko was between Baja California and Hawaii.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 110.2°W which put it about 265 miles (590 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Mario was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 129.6°W which put it about 1350 miles (2175 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kiko was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.