Tag Archives: 14E

Lane Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane on Way to Central Pacific

Hurricane Lane intensified into a major hurricane on it way toward the Central Pacific Ocean on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 135.6°W which put it about 1405 miles (2260 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Hurricane Lane exhibited the structure of a major hurricane on satellite imagery.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several spiral bands were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lane will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Lane is likely to intensify more during the next 24 hours.  If one of the rainbands wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause a weakening of Hurricane Lane.

Hurricane Lane will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Lane in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane could be southeast of Hawaii in about four days.

Lane Strengthens Into a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Lane strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Lane was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 129.8°W which put it about 1780 miles (2865 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Lane was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Lane became much better organized.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and it could become an eyewall.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the southern and eastern parts of the circulation were revolving around the core of Hurricane Lane.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Hurricane Lane will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Lane will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly once a well developed eye forms.

Hurricane Lane will move south of the subtropical high over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Lane in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Lane could be southeast of Hawaii by early next week.

Tropical Storm Lane Forms Southwest of Baja Califonia

Tropical Storm Lane formed southwest of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 1235 miles (1990 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lane was loving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed on Wednesday morning within a tropical wave southwest of Baja California.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Lane when more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Lane was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form and to revolve around the core of Tropical Storm Lane.  Storms in the core started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm in all directions.

Tropical Storm Lane will move through an environment very favorable for intensification.  Lane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Lane will intensify and it could become a hurricane within 36 hours.  When an eye forms and the core of the circulation is well established, Lane could intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into a major hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Lane will move south of the subtropical ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The ridge will steer Lane westward.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lane will move farther away from Baja California and in the general direction of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Lidia Weakens, Still Raining on Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia has weakened but it is producing rain over Baja California.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Lidia was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to San Jose de Las Palomas, from Mulege to Isla San Luis and from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lidia weakened during the past 24 hours as it slowly moved northwest over Baja California.  There are some indications that the upper portion of the circulation may have decoupled from the lower half of Tropical Storm Lidia.  The upper portion of the circulation appears to be over the Gulf of California.  There are stronger thunderstorms over the Gulf of California because the Sea Surface Temperature is near 32°C in that body of water.  Those thunderstorms are producing heavy rain over parts of the eastern side of Baja California and the western part of Mexico adjacent to the Gulf of California.  The lower level center appears to be located northeast of Punta Eugenia over the Pacific Ocean just west of Baja California.  There are showers and thunderstorms near the low level center and they are dropping heavy rain in that area.  The potential for flash floods still exists in the areas where heavy rain is falling.

The low level center of Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to continue to move toward the northwest.  Lidia will continue to weaken because the low level center is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 23°C.  It will take several more days for the low level center to spin down and it could still produce locally heavy rain over the northern part of Baja California during that time.  The upper level portion of the circulation will likely be absorbed by the larger scale environmental flow in those levels.  Some clouds and moisture in the upper levels could flow over the southwestern U.S.

Tropical Storm Lidia Brings Wind and Heavy Rain to Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia brought gusty winds and very heavy rain to Baja California on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 110.4°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Lidia was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Bahia San Juan Bautista including Cabo San Lucas and from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Juan de Las Palomas and from Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Tropical Storm Lidia intensified as it approached the southern tip of Baja California on Thursday.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation and a partial eyewall appeared to form.  The airport at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained winds of 58 m.p.h. (83 km/h) and a Mexican automated station reported a sustained wind of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h) and gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) at a height of 735 feet (244 meters).  Tropical Storm Lidia has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

The large size of Tropical Storm Lidia meant that it was bringing tropical storm winds to the southern part of Baja California and parts of the west coast of Mexico.  Lidia was also producing very heavy rain over Baja California.  Flash floods are likely in places where steep terrain causes water to run off quickly.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to move slowly north-northwest over Baja California.  The slow motion will prolong the period of gusty winds.  It will also cause the rain totals to be higher and increase the risk for floods.  Much of the circulation will remain over water and the large size of Lidia will mean that the tropical storm will weaken slowly.

Tropical Storm Lidia Threatens Baja California

Tropical Storm Lidia became an increased threat to Baja California as it moved closer on Wednesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 109.2°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lidia was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo including Cabo San Lucas and from Tempehuaya to Huatabampito, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico and from Puerto Cortes to Puerto Andresito.

A distinct center of circulation began consolidating in a large area of low pressure previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E on Wednesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms started developing around the consolidating center.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation than there were in the northern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms southwest of the center of circulation were beginning to generate some upper level divergence, but it was not well developed.  Tropical Storm Lidia formed out of a large low pressure system and it still has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center on the eastern side of Lidia.

Tropical Storm Lidia was in an environment that was marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Lidia was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Lidia was producing westerly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear, especially over the northern half of the circulation.  The environment around Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to become a little more favorable for intensification on Thursday.  The upper level winds are forecast to become weaker, which would reduce the wind shear.  Lidia will still be moving over very warm water and it should intensify on Thursday.  The rate of intensification could increase as the core of the tropical storm becomes more organized.  There is a chance that Lidia could strengthen into a hurricane which is why there is a Hurricane Watch for part of Baja California.

Lidia is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical storm toward the north-northwest.  A general north-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Lidia could reach the southern tip of Baja California by Thursday evening.  In addition to gusty winds Tropical Storm Lidia will produce very heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California creates the risk of flash floods.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Prompts Hurricane Watch for Baja California

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a weather system currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will become a tropical storm and affect Baja California.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the portion of the coast from Todos Santo to Los Barriles including Cabo San Lucas.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 430 miles (695 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is in the early stages of organization.  There is a large counterclockwise circulation over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming within the circulation, but there is no well defined center of circulation.  There are fewer showers and thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over Mexico is generating brisk easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the system has not yet begun to generate much upper level divergence.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  The strength of the upper level winds is forecast to diminish and the wind shear is likely to decrease.  If the wind shear decreases, then the environment will become more favorable for intensification.  Intensification is likely to be slow while the circulation becomes more organized and develops a distinct low level center.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could become a tropical storm on Wednesday.  It has a chance to intensify to a hurricane on Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering the system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E could approach the southern part of Baja California by late on Thursday.  It could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.  Locally heavy rain falling on the steep terrain of Baja California always creates a risk for flash floods.

Hurricane Warning for Hawaii as Madeline Moves Closer

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Warning for Hawaii County (i.e. the Big Island of Hawaii) as Hurricane Madeline moved steadily closer on Tuesday.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County including Maui, Molokai and Lanai.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Madeline was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 150.3°W which put it about 315 miles (505 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Madeline was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A subtropical ridge has been steering Hurricane Madeline toward the west.  The ridge is expected to strengthen and steer Madeline more toward the west-southwest for the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Madeline could approach the island of Hawaii in about 30 hours.

An upper level trough north of Hawaii has been producing westerly winds which are causing vertical wind shear.  The westerly winds are restricting the upper level divergence to the west of Hurricane Madeline.  However, thunderstorms in the core of the hurricane have strengthened periodically and reduced the impact of the wind shear.  The shear is expected to continue and Hurricane Madeline is forecast to slowly weaken.  However, Madeline is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C, and it could move over warmer water if it moves toward the west-southwest.

Madeline is expected to be a hurricane when it moves past the island of Hawaii.  On its anticipated track the greatest threat would be to the southern half of the island.  Madeline is a compact hurricane and winds to hurricane force only extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center.  Hurricane Madeline will be capable of causing localized serious wind damage.  It may also produce heavy rain and flash flooding, especially where the wind blows up the slopes.

Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester Moving Toward Hawaii

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester intensified quickly on Monday into Major Hurricanes as they moved toward Hawaii.  The approach of Hurricane Madeline prompted the Central Pacific Hurricane Center to issue a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County.  Both hurricanes have the potential to affect the weather around Hawaii during the next few days.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Madeline was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 145.5°W which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Madeline was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  That made Hurricane Madeline the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Lester was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 130.5°W which put it about 1375 miles (2210 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lester was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  That made Hurricane Lester a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Both Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are relatively compact hurricanes and the winds to hurricane force only extend out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  In Hurricane Madeline the Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 32.0.  Hurricane Lester is stronger, but slightly smaller.  The HII for Hurricane Lester is 25.1, while HSI is 10.3 and HWISI is 35.4.

Both hurricanes have well formed symmetrical eyes surrounded by rings of tall thunderstorms.  Each is producing well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Hurricane Madeline has more spiral rainbands, and Hurricane Lester shows some indications that the structure might be assuming more of the shape of an annular hurricane.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester responded to a favorable environment by intensifying rapidly on Monday.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Madeline increased from 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) during the past 24 hours.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Lester increased from 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) during the past 24 hours.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester will remain in a favorable environment during the short term.  They are moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 27.5°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Thus, both hurricanes could maintain their intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  When the hurricanes move closer to Hawaii, they will move over slightly cooler SSTs.  In addition, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest could increase the vertical wind shear later this week.  Hurricane Lester may also move over some cooler water mixed to the surface by Hurricane Madeline.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hurricanes Madeline and Lester toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Madeline could approach Hawaii in a couple of days.  Hurricane Lester could approach Hawaii in about five days.

 

Tropical Storm Madeline Forms East of Hawaii

A cluster of thunderstorms between Hawaii and Mexico developed enough organization on Friday night that the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Madeline.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 137.4°W which put it about 1235 miles (1990 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Madeline was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Madeline is still organizing.  A primary spiral band wraps around the western side of the circulation.  There are additional spiral bands of the thunderstorms in the southern part of the tropical storm.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband are generating upper level divergence which it pumping mass out primarily to the west of tropical storm Madeline.

Tropical Storm Madeline is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Madeline is expected to intensify steadily and it could become a hurricane by the end of the weekend.  In a few days Madeline will move over cooler SSTs and into an area where the is more vertical wind shear.  When that happens, Madeline will start to weaken.

A subtropical high is steering Tropical Storm Madeline toward the west-northwest and a general west-northwest or westerly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Madeline could approach the Hawaiian Islands in about five days.