Tag Archives: 14S

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Stalls and Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim stalled over Madagascar on Friday night and it was dropping heavy rain on northern Madagascar.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 300 miles (480 km) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Eliakim was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The strongest winds were occurring in rainbands over the Indian Ocean.  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The steering currents weakened on Friday as Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Indian Ocean.  Eliakim has moved little during the past 12 hours.  The center of circulation was over land close to the east coast of Madagascar near Mananara.  Since Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was nearly stationary, bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Madagascar.  The heavy rain was creating the potential for serious flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen during the weekend.  When the ridge strengthens the steering currents will start to move Tropical Cyclone Eliakim toward the south.  On its anticipated track Eliakim is forecast to move almost straight southward near the east coast of Madagascar.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will drop heavy rain on parts of Madagascar for several more days and it could cause very serious flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Makes Landfall on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 50.6°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim continued to strengthen as it approached Madagascar.  A nearly complete eyewall wrapped around a large circular eye.  The eyewall was weakest south of the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers an thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will gradually weaken after the center of circulation moves over eastern Madagascar.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds, but locally heavy rain will be the major threat.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is rounding the western end of a subtropical ridge and it will start moving toward the south within 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Elaikim will move over eastern Madagascar and it will stay east of Antananarivo.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in the steep terrain in eastern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim strengthened east of Madagascar on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 52.6°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim became better organized on Thursday morning.  A partial eyewall surrounded the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will continue to intensify until it reaches the coast of Madagascar in a day or so.  Eliakim is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is moving around the western portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  A general motion toward the west-southwest is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim could be near the coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana in 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over Madagascar.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone 14S Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 14S developed east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east-northeast of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  It was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern, western and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed primarily south and west of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone 14S is under an upper level ridge and the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone 14S is moving near the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and a general motion toward the west-southwest is expected.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could be near the east coast of Madagascar near Ambohitralanana in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.