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Tropical Storm Max Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Mexico

Tropical Storm Max brought wind and rain to southern Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 101.0°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Max made landfall on the coast of Mexico between Petatlan and Papanoa on Monday afternoon. The maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Storm Max at the time of landfall was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Max’s circulation. A weather station at Puerto Vicente Guerrero reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 m.p.h. (116 km/h).

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will move inland over Guerrero during Monday night.

Tropical Storm Max will weaken rapidly when it moves over the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains in Gurrero. Even though Max will weaken rapidly, the tropical storm is likely to drop locally heavy rain in parts of Guerrero. The heaviest rain will fall in places where the winds push the air up the slopes of mountains. The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia was on the threshold of intensifying to a hurricane south of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to intensify to a hurricane as it moves toward the west coast of Mexico on Monday night. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max Approaches Mexico

Tropical Storm Max was approaching the coast of Mexico near Zihuatanejo on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 101.2°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max intensified as it neared the coast of southwest Mexico near Zihuatanejo on Monday morning. A rainband wrapped around the southern part of the center of Max’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Max. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Max’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Zihuatenajo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Max will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall. Max will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Max’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Max could intensify a little more before it makes landfall in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max will bring gusty winds to the coast of southwest Mexico. Max will also drop heavy rain of parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Max could cause a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) along the coast near Zihuatanejo.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia started to move northeast toward the west coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 111.8°W which put it about 350 miles (525 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to intensify to a hurricane as it moves toward the west coast of Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Escuinapa, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max Forms Near Southwest Mexico

Tropical Storm Max formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the coast of southwest Mexico on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 101.9°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Zihuantenajo, Mexico. Max was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean near the southwest coast of Mexico strengthened during Sunday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Max. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Max on Sunday evening. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Max’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Max.

Tropical Storm Max will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Caribbean Sea and Mexico. The high pressure system will steer max toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico west of Zihuatenajo on Monday evening.

Tropical Storm Max will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Max will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that extends from Mexico to the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Max’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Max is likely to intensify before it makes landfall in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Max will bring gusty winds to the coast of southwest Mexico. Max will also drop heavy rain of parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Lidia continued to meander south of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Lidia was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lidia is forecast to start to move toward the northeast on Monday and to strengthen to a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias and the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula and from Bahia Tempehuaya to Mazatlan, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Paine Forms South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Monday afternoon. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 112.3°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paine was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Paine. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Paine was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Paine’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Paine was a small tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Paine will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paine’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Paine could get a little stronger on Tuesday unless the upper level winds get stronger.

Tropical Storm Paine will move around the southwestern part of an high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Paine toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pain will remain far to the south of Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Orlene was dissipating over western Mexico. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Orlene was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 105.0°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east-northeast of Mazatlan, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Hurricane Orlene Makes Landfall Southeast of Mazatlan

Hurricane Orlene made landfall on the west coast of Mexico southeast of Mazatlan on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east-southeast of Mazatlan, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Punta Mita to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene made landfall on the west coast of Mexico southeast of Mazatlan near Teacapan on Monday morning. Orlene was a small hurricane at the time of landfall. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Orlene’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Orlene will weaken quickly as it moves inland. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear coupled with moving over land will cause Hurricane Orlene to weaken quickly.

Hurricane Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa before it dissipates. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Orlene Brings Wind and Rain to Las Islas Marias

Hurricane Orlene brought wind and rain to Las Islas Marias, Mexico on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 106.5°W which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southwest of Las Islas Marias, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene weakened gradually on Sunday afternoon after it rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was still present at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.6. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, an upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Stronger vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Orlene to continue to weaken during Monday.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast during Sunday night and Monday. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hurricane Orlene could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) in parts of Las Islas Marias. Orlene could cause serious damage in Las Islas Marias. On its anticipated track Hurricane Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico between San Blas and Mazatlan on Monday afternoon. Orlene will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. Hurricane Orlene could produce storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 4

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 4 during Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized severe damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene could intensify during the next few hours. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Las Islas Marias. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some location. Hurricane Orlene could cuase major damage in Las Islas Marias. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Hurricane Orlene Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 106.9°W which put it about 160 miles (255 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Hurricane Orlene rapidly intensified on Saturday night. A circular eye with a diameter of 13 miles (20 km) was at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.5. Hurricane Orlene was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours. Orlene could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Orlene is likely to strengthen to a major hurrican by Sunday morning. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 18 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Orlene Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Orlene strengthened to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Saturday morning. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Orlene was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.0°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Orlene strengthened to a hurricane on Saturday morning. A small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Orlene. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around core of Orlene’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Orlene was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Orlene. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Orlene will intensify during the next 24 hours. Orlene could intensify rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has formed. An upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation later on Sunday. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Hurricane Orlene is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Hurricane Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the north during the next 24 hours. The upper level trough over northwestern Mexico will steer Hurricane Orlene toward the north-northeast on Sunday night and Monday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Orlene will hit Las Islas Marias early on Monday morning. Orlene is likely to make landfall on the west coast of Mexico on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Orlene Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Orlene formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 104.9°W which put it about 295 miles (445 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Orlene was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system south of Mexico strengthened on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Orlene. The circulation around Tropical Storm Orlene was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Orlene’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Orlene.

Tropical Storm Orlene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Orlene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. Orlene will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over Mexico. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Orlene’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Orlene is likely to intensify during the next 36 hours. Orlene could strengthen to a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical Storm Orlene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Orlene toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Orlene will move southwest of Mexico. Orlene will move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge. Tropical Storm Orlene could approach the west coast of Mexico in a few days.