Tag Archives: 16E

Max Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane Near Acapulco

Tropical Storm Max intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Max was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguas de Chacahua, Mexico.

The circulation of Hurriane Max is quite small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Although the circulation of Hurricane Max is small, it is very well organized.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.

The center of Hurricane Max is very close to the coast of Mexico.  The outer fringes of the northwestern part of the circulation could already be pulling in some drier air.  Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within a few hours and it will start to dissipate as soon as the center make landfall.

The core of Hurricane Max will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  Max will also drop very heavy rain over parts of the states or Guerrero and Oaxaca and flash floods could occur in some areas of steeper terrain.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma formed to the west of Hurricane Max.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen and move toward Baja California.  Normal could be a hurricane when it approaches southern Baja California in a few days.

Tropical Depression 16E Forms, Flood Risk for Mexico

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E formed south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 101.7°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was  35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and that National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Sixteen-E on Wednesday morning.  The circulation of the depression was still organizing.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing south and east of the center of circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation and the depression may have been pulling in drier air from Mexico.

The depression has 12 to 18 hours to strengthen before it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough extends from the eastern U.S. to Mexico.  The trough is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate wind vertical shear, which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Depression Sixteen-E could strengthen into a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico.

The upper level trough is forecast to steer Tropical Depression Sixteen-E toward the east.  On its anticipated track the depression could make landfall east of Zihuatanejo in less than 24 hours.  The depression will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain poses a greater threat.  Heavy rain falling in steeper terrain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was moving farther away from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed when momentum from the upper half of the circulation of former Hurricane Katia spun up a new surface circulation over the Eastern North Pacific.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 120.6°W which put it about 890 miles (1435 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Orlene Develops Rapidly West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Orlene developed rapidly southwest of Baja California on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 118.3°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Orlene was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Orlene organized quickly on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appears to be forming.  Additional spiral bands are rotating around the core of Orlene.  Thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Orlene are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Orlene is symmetrical and well formed.

Tropical Storm Orlene is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Orlene will continue to intensify on Monday and it could intensify rapidly for another 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Orlene is moving northwest toward a weakness in the subtropical high and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  Eventually, the subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and turn Tropical Storm Orlene toward the west.

Tropical Depression 16E Could Bring Heavy Rain to Southwest U.S.

A center of circulation organized within a cluster of thunderstorms west of Baja California on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (TD16E) was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 113.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  TD16E was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression 16E has only a few hours before it will move over the central part of Baja California.  Although it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C little, if any, intensification is expected.  When TD16E crosses Baja California, the terrain and increased vertical wind shear are likely to blow the upper portion of the circulation northward faster than the lower portion of the circulation.  The high clouds could reach parts of the southwestern U.S. within 24 hours.  Moving over mountains will disrupt the lower part of the circulation, but the rotation in the middle levels could persist for several days as it moves northward.

An upper level ridge centered over Texas and an upper level low west of Baja California are combining to steer TD16E northward and that general motion should continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track TD16E could reach the coast of Baja California near Punta Abreojos in about 12 hours.  It could then move across Baja and the Gulf of California and make a second landfall on the coast west of Hermosillo on Monday morning.  TD16E or its remnants could be approaching southern Arizona later on Monday.  Convection and a flow of moisture associated with TD16E could produce locally heavy rainfall when it is forced to rise of mountains.  It could cause flooding in parts of Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S.