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Tropical Storm Nana Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Belize

Tropical Storm Nana strengthened on Tuesday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Belize.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 80.9°W which put it about 485 miles (775 km) east of Belize City, Belize.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala and for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

Tropical Storm Nana continued to strengthen on Tuesday night.  There were signs that a small eye might be starting to form in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana is likely to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras.  Nana could approach Belize on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Omar continued to move away from North Carolina.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 70.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Omar was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Nana Forms South of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Nana formed over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 110 miles (175 km) south of Negril, Jamaica.  Nana was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the entire coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the north coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the border with Guatemala including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight into a low pressure system south of Jamaica found a defined low level center of circulation and winds to tropical storm force on Tuesday.  Based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft the National Hurricane Center designated the system Tropical Storm Nana.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Nana was organizing quickly.  Thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Nana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Nana will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen to a hurricane within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Nana will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Nana toward the west during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Nana will pass north of Honduras on Wednesday.  Nana could reach Belize on Thursday and it is likely to be a hurricane by that time.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Fifteen moved away from the East Coast of the U.S.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located at latitude 34.7°N and longitude 73.1°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The depression was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Nestor Causes Severe Weather in Florida

Tropical Storm Nestor caused severe weather in Florida.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 85.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) west of Apalachicola, Florida.  Nestor was moving toward the east-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (38 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nestor began a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approached the coast of Florida.  Strong westerly winds in the middle latitudes created significant vertical wind shear.  In addition, the circulation around Nestor pulled cooler, drier air into the western and southern parts of the tropical storm.  The effects of the upper level westerly winds and cooler, drier air caused the strongest rising motion to occur in bands well to the east of the center of circulation.  The strongest thunderstorms occurred in bands southeast of the low level center.

The vertical wind shear was strong enough that rotation developed in some of the thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula.  Several tornado warnings were issued on Friday night because radar indicated likely rotation.  There were reports of property damage due to possible tornadoes in Cape Coral in Lee County, near Winston in Polk County, in Plant City in Hillsborough County and in Seminole in Pinellas County.

The center of Tropical Storm Nestor officially made landfall on St. Vincent Island west of Apalachicola on Saturday afternoon.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms had moved east of Florida by Saturday afternoon.  There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms moving over the Florida Peninsula.  Flow diverging from a surface high pressure system centered over the northeastern U.S. was converging with the flow around the northern part of Tropical Storm Nestor.  The convergence was generating a large area of rising motion.  Showers and thunderstorms were occurring over northern Florida, southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia and parts of South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Nestor will move toward the northeast as an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Nestor will move across southern Georgia and near the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.  The low pressure system will continue to drop rain over those areas.  There has been below normal rainfall over the southeastern U.S. in recent weeks.  So, the rain is unlikely to cause flooding in most places.

Tropical Storm Nestor Speeds Toward Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Nestor sped toward northwest Florida on Friday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated a strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nestor on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Nestor was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida.  A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nestor exhibited an asymmetrical structure that is commonly seen in late season tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Nestor.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The tropical storm force winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Nestor.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of the circulation.  The winds in the western half of Nestor were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Drier air was being pulled around the western side of Tropical Storm Nestor.  In addition, an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of the drier air and the vertical wind shear was responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and strong winds in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Nestor will move through an environment only marginally favorable for further intensification during the next 12 hours.  Nestor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper part of the Gulf of Mexico to support intensification.  However, the drier air and wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Nestor will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday.  Nestor could strengthen somewhat during the extratropical transition, but it could be over land before that occurs.

The upper level trough over the Western Gulf of Mexico will steer Nestor quickly toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nestor could make landfall on the coast of northwest Florida between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Nestor will bring gusty winds to northern Florida on Saturday.  Strong southerly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Nestor will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) will occur around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Nestor could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southeast Alabama, southern Georgia and South Carolina.  Tropical Storm Nestor will make landfall near where Hurricane Michael did so much damage in 2018.  Recovery efforts have been slow in that area and Nestor could set back the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Michael.

Oscar Strengthens Into a Hurricane Southeast of Bermuda

One time subtropical storm and former Tropical Storm Oscar strengthened into a hurricane southeast of Bermuda on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 55.5°W which put it about 725 miles (1165 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A small eye formed at the center of former Tropical Storm Oscar and the National Hurricane Center upgraded Oscar to a hurricane.  A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar is relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extend out only about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another day or two.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Because of its relatively small circulation, Hurricane Oscar could intensify rapidly while it is in a favorable environment.  Oscar will get stronger during the next 36 to 48 hours and some models are forecasting that it will become a major hurricane.  An upper level trough moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase by Wednesday.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.  The ridge will steer Oscar toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Hurricane Oscar will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Oscar will pass east of Bermuda on Tuesday.  The upper level trough will steer Oscar rapidly toward the northeast on Wednesday.

Oscar Transitions to a Tropical Storm

Former Subtropical Storm Oscar transitioned to a tropical storm on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 51.4°W which put it about 930 miles (1495 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The structure of the circulation of former Subtropical Storm Oscar changed to a shape more like a tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center reclassified Oscar as a tropical storm.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped more tightly around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring about 30 miles (50 km) from the center.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were starting to form in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Oscar will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low southeast of Oscar will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm.  However, the core of Tropical Storm Oscar will remain south of the strongest upper level winds on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Oscar could intensify into a hurricane by Monday.

The upper level low is steering Tropical Storm Oscar quickly toward the west-southwest.  That motion is forecast to continue for anther 24 hours.  A large upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  will produce southwesterly winds which will start to turn Oscar toward the northeast in about 36 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda on Monday night.

Subtropical Storm Oscar Develops East of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Oscar developed east of Bermuda on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 45.7°W which put it about 1210 miles (1940 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.  Oscar was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface temperature was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system east-southeast of Bermuda on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The strongest winds were occurring in a band of showers and thunderstorms about 80 to 100 miles (130 to 160 km) east of the center of the low pressure system.  Several other bands were forming southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of Subtropical Storm Oscar consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Subtropical Storm Oscar will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level low will move just to the south of Subtropical Storm Oscar.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the subtropical storm.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification on Saturday.  In a day or so Oscar will move northwest of the upper level low and the vertical wind shear will decrease.

The upper level low will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the north-northwest on Saturday.  When Oscar moves farther way from the upper level low, it will move south of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Subtropical Storm Oscar toward the west on Sunday and into early next week.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Oscar could be southeast of Bermuda by Monday night.

Hurricane Nate Brings Gusty Winds and Surge to Mississippi Coast

Hurricane Nate brought gusty winds, heavy rain and a storm surge to the coast of Mississippi on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nate was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 89.1°W which put it about 35 miles (60 km) south-southwest of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, for New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and for the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida.

Some drier air wrapped into the western side of Hurricane Nate on Saturday afternoon.  In addition an upper level trough approaching Nate from the west produced southwesterly winds which caused vertical wind shear.  The drier air and shear caused the circulation of Hurricane Nate to become asymmetrical.  The stronger winds are occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  The winds are weaker in the western side of the hurricane.  The bands of showers and thunderstorms are also occurring in the eastern half of Hurricane Nate.  Very little rain was falling on the western side of the hurricane.

The partial eyewall north of the center of Hurricane Nate was moving over the coast of Mississippi from Pascagoula to Gulfport.  Strong gusty winds and heavy rain were falling on that section of the coast.  Winds blowing water toward the coast were pushing a storm surge onto the coast.  A water level gauge at a NOAA laboratory in Pascagoula, Mississippi was reporting a storm surge of 6.75 feet (2.06 meters).  The highest surges were occurring in Mississippi, but there were also storm surges on the coast of Alabama and Florida.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over southeastern Mississippi, southwestern and central Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Brief tornadoes spun up in some of the thunderstorms on Saturday.

Hurricane Nate will move inland over southeastern Mississippi during the overnight hours.  Nate will weaken after it moves inland, but it will continue to bring gusty winds as it spins down.  There is a strong flow of moist air from the south and heavy rain will continue to fall east of the track of Hurricane Nate.  Places west of the track will experience weaker winds and will receive little rain.  Locations west of a line from New Orleans to Hattiesburg to Meridian,  Mississippi could see little minimal impacts from Nate.  Nate will cross over west central Alabama on Sunday morning.  It will continue to move toward the north-northeast and the remnants of Nate could reach eastern Tennessee on Sunday night.  Areas of heavy rain will fall over northwestern Florida, Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina.  Fresh water flooding could occur in some of those areas.  Tornadoes could develop in the rainbands again on Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Nate Speeds Toward Gulf Coast

Strengthening Hurricane Nate sped toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Nate was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 88.4°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south of Biloxi, Mississippi.  Nate was moving toward the north-northwest at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line and from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida and from Grand Isle to Morgan City.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

Hurricane Nate strengthened on Saturday as it moved over the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) began to form at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms around the eye was generating strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from Hurricane Nate.  The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 120 miles (195 km) east of the center, but they only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) to the west of the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Nate is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 21.6.

Hurricane Nate will continue to intensify during the next 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Nate will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, there are also southerly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and as a result, there is not much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Nate is likely to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.  There is a chance Hurricane Nate could intensify to Category 3 before landfall, if it continues to intensify rapidly.

The upper low and an upper level ridge east of Florida are combining to steer Hurricane Nate quickly toward the north-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for the next few hours.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. will approach Nate on Saturday night as the hurricane nears the coast.  The trough will turn Hurricane Nate more toward the north as it reaches the coast.  The trough should steer Nate quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Nate will pass near the mouth of the Mississippi River on Saturday evening.  The center of Nate will likely make landfall on the coast of Mississippi or near Mobile on Saturday night.

Hurricane Nate will be capable of causing regional serious damage when it makes landfall.  Nate will produce strong winds, especially in locations east of the track of the hurricane.  Nate will also be capable of producing a storm surge of 10 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) along the coast.  The surge will be higher in bays, inlets and mouths of rivers that funnel the water into specific areas.  Nate will also be capable of dropping heavy rain as it moves inland.

Stronger Tropical Storm Nate Speeds Toward Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Warning for New Orleans

A stronger Tropical Storm Nate sped toward the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for the city of New Orleans.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 85.7°W which put it about 80 miles (125 km) east of Cozumel, Mexico and about 710 miles (1145 km) south-southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Nate was moving toward the north-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Lousiana and from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Pinar del Rio province in Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Isle of Youth province in Cuba.

The inner core of Tropical Storm Nate tightened up on Friday afternoon.  A primary rainband wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation.  There was an opening to the northeast of the center.  The rainband could develop into an eyewall if it wraps completely around the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Tropical Storm Nate.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  The winds were weaker in the western half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core began to generate stronger upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and the surface pressure decreased on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nate will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Nate will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation but the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Nate will become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.  If an eyewall and an eye form, then Nate could have a period of rapid intensification.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge east of Florida are combining to steer Tropical Storm Nate toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue on Saturday.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will turn Nate toward the northeast when it nears the U.S.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nate will pass near the northeastern end of the Yucatan peninsula and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  Nate will approach southeastern Louisiana and Central Gulf Coast on Saturday night.

Nate will be a hurricane when it nears the U.S.  It will be capable of producing serious regional wind damage and power outages.  Nate could cause a storm surge of 10-12 feet (3 to 4 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Nate could also drop locally heavy rain and cause fresh water flooding when it moves inland in the southern U.S.