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Tropical Cyclone Faraji Weakens Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened southeast of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 18.9°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1000 miles (1610 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An upper level low east of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds which blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Faraji on Friday. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and the winds blew the tops of many of the thunderstorms around Faraji. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Faraji consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. However, the upper level low east of Madagascar will continue to produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will continue to cause the strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Churns Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Faraji churned southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 84.7°E which put it about 1060 miles (1710 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

After intensification to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday, Tropical Cyclone Faraji weakened gradually during the past 48 hours. Even though Faraji weakened, the circulation around the tropical cyclone remained very well organized. A small circular eye was apparent on infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km from the center of Faraji.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move into an environment that will become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Faraji. The approaching trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause the wind vertical wind shear to increase. More vertical wind shear will likely cause Faraji to weaken during the next 48 hours..

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the northern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will pass well to the south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 82.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1350 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane southeast of Diego Garcia on Monday. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was at the center of Faraji. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that rings of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Faraji. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Faraji was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.2.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will likely continue to be the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Faraji to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Faraji strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 80.0°E which put it about 735 miles (1185 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 24 hours. A circular eye with a diameter of 28 miles (44 km) formed at the center of Faraji. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of the circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Faraji was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 33.3.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment capable of supporting strong tropical cyclones for several more days. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will likely continue to be the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 14.8°S and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small circular eye formed at the center of Faraji. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Faraji. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Faraji. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours. Faragi could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the east during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Faraji formed over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faraji was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 81.2°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Faraji was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Faraji was organizing quickly on Friday morning. Numerous thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Faraji. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Faraji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Faraji will continue to intensify. Faragi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. It could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faraji will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern Indian Ocean. The high will steer Faraji toward the south during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Faraji is likely to move more toward the east next week after it moves around the southwestern part of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Faraji will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah Forms North of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Savannah formed over the southeast Indian Ocean north of Cocos Island on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Savannah was located at latitude 11.3°S and longitude 96.7°E which put it about 60 miles (100 km) north of Cocos Island.  Savannah was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Cocos Island.

More thunderstorms formed near an area of low pressure over the southeastern Indian Ocean west of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Savannah.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Savannah was asymmetrical.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the western half of the circulation.  Rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Tropical Cyclone Savannah was moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was generating easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Savannah will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease during the next 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Savannah is likely to intensify during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah will move near the western end of a strengthening subtropical ridge over Australia.  The ridge will steer Savannah toward the south-southwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Savannah will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Weakens Northeast of Madagascar

Thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala dissipated and it weakened as moved northeast of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT  on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala reversed course again on Saturday and it is moving over the same part of the South Indian Ocean that it already crossed twice during the past few days.  The winds produced by Fantala mixed cooler water up to to the surface of the ocean during its previous passages over the same region.  The cooler water means that there is less energy available to power the circulation of Tropical Cyclone.  Although the winds continue to rotate around the center of circulation, there are no thunderstorms near the core of Fantala.  There are still several thunderstorms in rainbands farther to the east of the center of circulation.

If new thunderstorms do not develop around the core of the circulation, the winds will gradually spin down and the tropical cyclone will dissipate within a few days.  Upper level winds blowing from the west-northwest are also generating some vertical wind shear, which will make it more difficult for new thunderstorms to form.

A subtropical ridge southwest of Fantala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala is forecast to pass north of Madagascar and move over the Seychelles.  It could be even weaker by the time it gets to the Seychelles.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Stalls East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fantala moved into an area of weaker steering currents on Thursday and it stalled about 500 miles (800 km) east of northern Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 56.7°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Although Fantala weakened slightly on Thursday, the structure of the inner core of the circulation remained fairly intact.  A thin ring of thunderstorms was wrapped around an that was obscured on conventional satellite imagery.  Other bands of thunderstorms spiraled around the eyewall.  The thunderstorms in the core of Fantala were generating upper level divergence to the north and east of the center of circulation.  It appears that drier air may be getting pulled into the eastern portion of the circulation outside the core of Fantala.  There only only isolated thunderstorms in the rainbands in that part of the circulation.

The environment is marginally favorable for intensification.  The upper level winds are light enough so there is only a moderate amount of vertical wind shear.  Fantala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, because Fantala is moving so slowly, it could mix cooler water to the surface which would reduce the energy available to the tropical cyclone.  In addition the drier air will also limit the supply of energy being transported into the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala has moved into an area where the steering currents are weak.  It may not move much during the next 24 hours.  A subtropical ridge is forecast to develop southwest of Fantala in a day or two.  When the subtropical ridge develops, it is expected to steer Fantala back toward the west again.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala could be approaching the northern part of Madagascar in 60 to 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Reorganizes Northeast of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fantala reorganized northeast of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 10.0°S and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 240 miles (385 km) northeast of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Fantala became more organized on Tuesday.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded a circular eye that was visible on satellite imagery.  It did still appear that some drier air was wrapping around the eastern and southern sides of the circulation, but the drier air did not appear to be spiraling into the center of the circulation.  Upper level divergence appeared to increase throughout the day.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Fantala is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  The only inhibiting factor is the presence of a band of drier air on the eastern and southern sides of the circulation.  Given the improved organization of the core of the circulation, Tropical Cyclone Fantala could intensify further on Wednesday.

A ridge north of Fantala is steering the Tropical Cyclone toward the east-southeast and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  A new subtropical ridge could develop southwest of Fantala and turn it back toward the west later this week.  Tropical Cyclone Fantala could still have an impact on northern Madagascar in a few days.