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Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Guambe strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 36.4°E which put it about 260 miles (415 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe continued to intensify over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Friday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was present at the center of Guambe. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Guambe.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe was relatively small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Guambe. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the western side of the circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Guambe was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Guambe to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. The center of Guambe is forecast to remain over the Mozambique Channel, but rainbands on the western side of the tropical cyclone could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Intensifies East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified east of Mozambique on Thursday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 37.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east of Inhambane, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday night. A small circular eye at the center of Guambe was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 6 hours. Guambe could intensify rapidly for a period of time and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. Rainbands on the western side of Guambe could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Forms over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha Brings Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 63.9°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) from Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.3.  Joaninha was capable of causing major damage.

The southwestern portion of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was very near Rodrigues.  Winds to hurricane typhoon force were occurring in that part of the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force are likely to affect all of Rodrigues.  The circulation around Joaninha was somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and the heaviest rain is likely to fall east of Rodrigues.  However, heavy rain in the eyewall could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Joaninha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Joaninha could strengthen slightly while it passes by Rodrigues.

An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will steer Tropical Cyclone Joaninha toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Joaninha will move away from Rodrigues on Tuesday.  Conditions in Rodrigues should improve gradually as Tropical Cyclone Joaninha moves away.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, weakening Tropical Cyclone Veronica was skirting the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 115.4°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica dropped heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and flooding was occurring in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica Stalls, Weakens Near Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Veronica stalled and weakened near the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedand.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 117.5°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Port Hedland.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect from Port Hedland to Mardie including Karratha and Barrow Island.

The southern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Veronica moved over the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Saturday night.  Veronica was the equivalent of a major hurricane and there would have been a period of strong winds near the coast.  It likely caused some wind damage and generated a storm surge at the coast.  An upper level trough west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that reached the top of Tropical Cyclone Veronica as it neared the coast.  Those winds produced very strong vertical wind shear and they blew the upper half of the circulation southeast of the lower half of the tropical cyclone.  The decoupling of the upper and lower parts of the circulation caused Tropical Cyclone Veronica to weaken very quickly during the past 12 hours.  Veronica weakened from the equivalent of a major hurricane to a tropical storm.

The strong wind shear also generated an asymmetrical distribution of rainfall.  Most of the rain was falling in the southeastern half of the circulation which was over Western Australia.  Bands in the northwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Locally heavy rain could produce flooding in a few locations, but the rapid weakening of Tropical Cyclone Veronica will reduce the risk of flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will continue to weaken quickly because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The decoupling of the upper and lower halves of the circulation has resulted in little motion during the past few hours.  However, the lower half of Veronica will be steered more by the winds in the lower troposphere.  Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Veronica toward the west-southwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the lower half of Veronica will move near the coast of Western Australia.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica will pass near Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.  Veronica will bring some gusty winds, but it should pose a limited risk.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was strengthening northwest of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 62.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) northwest of Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclones Trevor and Veronica Bracket Australia

Tropical Cyclones Trevor and Veronica bracketed Australia on Thursday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica was stronger but Tropical Cyclone Trevor was the more immediate threat.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east-northeast of Port McArthur, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Shield, Northern Territory to Karumba, Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor strengthened more quickly as more of the circulation moved over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  A circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Trevor generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will continue to intensify on Friday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern side of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near Port McArthur in about 24 hours.  Trevor could be a major hurricane at that time.  It will bring strong winds, which could cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will drop heavy rain when it moves inland and it could cause flooding in some locations.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 116.7°E which put it about 200 miles (355 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica remains the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A circular eye was surrounded by a ring of strong storms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Veronica.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Veronica will remain in an area favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure.  Veronica will move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Karratha and Port Hedland in about 48 hours.  Veronica is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Trevor brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape York to Pormpuraaw.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the east coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River on Tuesday.  Trevor was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved slowly westward across the peninsula to a position south of Weipa.  Trevor brought strong gusty winds and dropped locally heavy rain over the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor weakened steadily while it move over land.  The eye filled with lower clouds and the number of strong thunderstorms around the core and in the rainbands decreased.  However, the circulation remained intact.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor retained a well defined low level circulation with a distinct tight center.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.  Trevor will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor is likely to intensify when it moves back over water.  It could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall redevelop at the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to steer Trevor toward the west for another day or so.  After that time Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Trevor could reach the east coast of the Northern Territory in about 72 hours.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed quickly off the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica is also forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could approach the coast of Western Australia in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan Forms East of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan formed over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garcia was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 1190 miles (1925 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Flamboyan was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed inside a large areas of showers and thunderstorms east of Diego Garcia on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan organized steadily during the day.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Flamboyan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  Flamboyan will move through an area where there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  Flamboyan will turn more toward the south when it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will move farther away from Cocos Island and it will pass well southeast of Diego Garcia.