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Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

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Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Olga Continues to Weaken

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Tropical Cyclone Olga continued to weaken on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 115.8°E which put it about 265 miles (435 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia continued to produce strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Olga’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew the tops off of most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Olga. There were still a few thunderstorms in bands in the southeastern periphery of Olga’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Olga consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the pattern of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Olga to be asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Olga to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will be north of Exmouth in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga was already bringing gusty winds to the area around Barrow Island. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 36 m.p.h. (58 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Olga Weakens

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Tropical Cyclone Olga weakened over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north of the Karratha, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Olga to weaken steadily on Monday. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Olga to become asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Olga’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Olga consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the pattern of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Olga to become asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) in the southern half of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 75 miles in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough west of Australia will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Olga to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will gradually move closer to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Olga brought strong gusty winds to the area around Rowley Shoals. A weather station on Rowley Shoals reported a sustained wind speed of 48 m.p.h. (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h). Olga could bring strong gusty winds to Barrow Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia during Sunday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Olga’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Olga was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Hurricane Olga will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Olga from the west. The trough will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Olga will start to weaken when the wind shear increases. Olga could weaken rapidly because of the small size of its circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is expected to have a minimal impact on Western Australia. Olga will bring gusty winds and large waves to the area around Rowley Shoals.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

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Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia on Saturday night. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Olga’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga was small, but it was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Olga was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.

Hurricane Olga will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Olga from the west. The trough will produce strong westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Olga’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Olga could continue to intensify during the next few hours, but Olga will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia. Olga will bring gusty winds and large waves to the area around Rowley Shoals.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

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Tropical Cyclone Olga strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 119.6°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Olga strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Olga’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 16 miles (26 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Olga generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Olga’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis an upper level ridge over northern Australia. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Olga will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west-southwest on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Olga Forms Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Olga formed northwest of Australia on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 12.95°S and longitude 120.1°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) north of the Port Hedland, Australia. Olga was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean between Indonesia and Australia strengthened on Friday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Olga. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Olga exhibited more organization on Friday night. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Olga’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Olga generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Olga will intensify during the next 24 hours. Olga could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Olga will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Olga slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Olga will move a little closer to Western Australia. Olga is forecast to turn more toward the west later in the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to have a minimal impact on Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Halima Forms South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Halima formed south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Halima was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 75.7°E which put it about 485 miles (780 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Halima was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated at Tropical Cyclone Halima. More thunderstorms formed west of the center of Halima’s circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Halima. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Halima.

Tropical Cyclone Halima will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Halima will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Halima’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Halima will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Halima will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Halima toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Halima will move farther away from Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte weakened gradually northwest of Australia. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 107.6°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Charlotte was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Charotte was spinning over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 108.7°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Charlotte was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte continued to spin over over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday night. The environment around Charlotte became less favorable for a tropical cyclone on Tuesday evening and the tropical cyclone was beginning to be affected the different environment. The ring of thunderstorms around the eye weakened and the overall distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Charlotte. Bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation were still generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will continue to be in an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Charlotte will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Charlotte from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Charlotte’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The flow of air around Tropical Cyclone Charlotte could also pull drier air into the western and northern parts of the circulation. The wind shear and the drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Charlotte to weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Charlotte toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia. Charlotte will remain west of the coast during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 109.6°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Charlotte was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte continued to intensify on Monday. A small circular eye formed at the center of Charlotte’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Charlotte will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Charlotte is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Charlotte from the west in a day or so. The trough will produce northwesterly winds and those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Charlotte toward the southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Charlotte will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia during the next 24 hours. Charlotte will remain far away from the coast during the next several days.