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Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane over Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Marianas on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 145.5°E which put it about 660 miles (1060 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Bualoi continued to intensify quickly on Monday.  There was a small eye at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.1.  Typhoon Bualoi was capable of causing localized major damage.  The core of Bualoi where the strongest winds were occurring passed north of Saipan.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon for another 24 to 36 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If an inner rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to start to weaken.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Bualoi will move away from the Northern Marianas.  Conditions should improve when Bualoi gets farther away.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in about 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving south of Honshu.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  The center of Tropical Storm Neoguri is likely to pass south of Tokyo during in about 12 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi Strengthens as it Approaches the Marianas

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened as it approached the Marianas on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-southeast of Saipan.  Bualoi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Rota.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Typhoon Bualoi strengthened quickly on Sunday.  A small circular eye developed at the center of Bualoi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the typhoon.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Bualoi in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Bualoi was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bualoi was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.3.  Bualoi was capable of causing localized serious damage.

Typhoon Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 36 to 48 hours.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bualoi will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Typhoon Bualoi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  The typhoon will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Bualoi could pass near Saipan in about 12 hours.  If the center passes near or over Saipan, then there will be winds of typhoon force.  However, since the circulation around Bualoi is fairly small, if the typhoon passes north of Saipan, it will receive much weaker winds.  Typhoon Bualoi could be near Iwo To in less than three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri was moving toward Honshu.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 600 miles (965 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could pass close to the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Neoguri Strengthens to Typhoon South of Okinawa, Bualoi Prompts Watches for Marianas

Former Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened into a typhoon south of Okinawa on Saturday and Tropical Storm Bualoi prompted watches for the Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 128.1°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Neoguri strengthened rapidly on Saturday.  An eye formed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Neoguri.  There were more bands of thunderstorms in the northern half of the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Neoguri was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center.

Typhoon Neoguri will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough over China will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Typhoon Neoguri.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will be strong enough to cause Neoguri to weaken.  Since the circulation around the typhoon is small, it could weaken more rapidly if the upper level winds get stronger.

The upper level trough over China will steer Typhoon Neoguri toward the northeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Neoguri will pass east of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa during the next 36 hours.  It could approach Honshu in about 48 hours.  Typhoon Neoguri will likely be a tropical storm by the time it approaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Depression 22W rapidly strengthened into Tropical Storm Bualoi.  Bualoi had almost strengthened into a typhoon by Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 150.8°E which put it about 455 miles (730 km) east of Guam.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Watches were in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Guam.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bualoi organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite images indicated that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bualoi.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Bualoi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Bualoi will strengthen into a typhoon on Sunday and it could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bualoi will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Bualoi toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bualoi could reach the Marianas in 36 hours.  Bualoi will very likely be a typhoon when it reaches the Marianas.  The center of Bualoi could pass near Tinian and Saipan.  It could be near Iwo To in about four days.

Tropical Depression 22W Forms East of Guam

Tropical Depression 22W formed east of Guam on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 22W was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 815 miles (1315 km) east of Guam.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression 22W was still organizing on Friday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression 22W will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression 22W is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the weekend and it could strengthen into a typhoon by early next week.

Tropical Depression 22W will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track the depression could reach the Marianas within 72 hours.  It could be a typhoon by that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Neoguri strengthened south of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 127.8°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) south of Okinawa.  Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  Tropical Storm Neoguri could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa in about 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Forms East of Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Neoguri formed east of northern Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 129.4°E which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southeast of Okinawa and about 500 miles (800 km) east-northeast of the northern end of Luzon.  Neoguri was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed on the western side of a cluster of thunderstorms east of northern Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Neoguri.  The circulation around Neoguri exhibited much more organization.  The inner part of a rainband wrapped around the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms formed around the southwestern half of the center and an elliptical eyelike feature appeared on microwave satellite images.  The long axis of the elliptical eye was oriented northeast to southwest.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Neoguri.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Neoguri will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Neoguri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker.  There will not be a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  There appears to be drier air to the northwest of Tropical Storm Neoguri, which may be the reason why the rainbands in the western half of the circulation are weaker.  If Neoguri pulls drier air into the core of the circulation, then that would inhibit intensification.  On the other hand, if an eye does form completely, then Tropical Storm Neoguri could strengthen into a typhoon.

The future track of Tropical Storm Neoguri will depend on how strong it becomes.  If Neoguri strengthens, then a trough over China will likely steer the tropical storm toward the northeast.  However, if drier air gets pulled into the core of the circulation, then a weaker Tropical Storm Neoguri would be steered by winds closer to the surface.  A high pressure system over the Western North Pacific would steer Tropical Storm Neoguri toward the west.  Guidance from numerical models is split between these two scenarios.  Some models forecast a track toward the northeast and other models predict a track toward the west.  Tropical Storm Neoguri did not move much on Thursday and either scenario is possible.

Tropical Storm Rumbia Makes Landfall Near Shanghai, Bebinca Hits Vietnam

Tropical Storm Rumbia made landfall on the east coast of China just south of Shanghai on Thursday, and Tropical Storm Babinca hit Vietnam.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rumbia was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 121.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southwest of Shanghai, China.  Rumbia was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Rumbia strengthened before it made landfall.  Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and a band wrapped around the center.  The circulation became more circular and storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence.  In the western half off the circulation where the winds were blowing toward the land, increased friction enhanced rising motion and heavier rain fell.

Tropical Storm Rumbia caused some gusty winds near the coast, but the greater risks were the locally heavy rain and the potential for floods.  Tropical Storm Rumbia is forecast to move slightly north of due west as it moves inland over eastern China.  Rumbia will drop locally heavy rain over the area around Shanghai, and over parts Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.  Some of those regions have received heavy rain from previous storms and the potential for serious flooding exists.

Tropical Storm Bebinca made landfall on the coast of Vietnam on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 106.3°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Ninh Binh, Vietnam.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Bebinca also strengthened before it made landfall.  An eye started to form at the center of circulation and Bebinca was on the threshold of becoming a typhoon when it made landfall.  Tropical Storm Bebinca produced gusty winds and a storm surge near the coast.  However, the greatest risks are locally heavy rain and the potential for floods.  Tropical Storm Bebinca is forecast to move in a general westerly direction.  Bebinca will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Vietnam, northern Laos and extreme northern Thailand.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Soulik moved quickly toward Iwo To and strengthened.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Soulik was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 141.3°E which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south of Iwo To.  Soulik was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Storm Rumbia Nears Shanghai, Bebinca Strengthens East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Rumbia moved closer to Shanghai on Wednesday, while Tropical Storm Bebinca strengthened east of Vietnam and Tropical Storm Soulik formed west of Guam.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Rumbia was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 124.2°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) southeast of Shanghai, China.  Rumbia was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Rumbia has about 12 to 18 hours before it makes landfall near Shanghai.  It will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  Rumbia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The circulation of Rumbia is broad.  There is a distinct center of circulation, but there are few thunderstorms close to the center.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in rainbands revolving around the center of Rumbia.  The broad circulation will limit the potential for intensification, but Tropical Storm Rumbia could get stronger before it reaches the east coast of China on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Bebinca strengthened on Wednesday while it moved south of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east-southeast of Hai Phong, Vietnam.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Bebinca intensified quickly on Wednesday after it moved west of Hainan Island.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Bebinca.  Tropical Storm Bebinca has about 18 hours before it reaches the coast of Vietnam.  It will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Bebinca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Bebinca could strengthen into a typhoon before it reaches Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Bebinca could make landfall on the coast of  Vietnam between Hai Phong and Vinh within 24 hours.  It could be a typhoon when it makes landfall.  Bebinca will bring strong winds capable of causing damage.  it could generate a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  Bebinca will drop heavy rain over parts of Vietnam and it could cause serious flooding.

Tropical Storm Soulik formed west of Guam on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Soulik was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 142.7°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) northwest of Guam.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Soulik will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move east of an upper level low that will produce southerly winds.  Those winds will move blow toward the top of the circulation and they will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Soulik could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.  The upper low will pull Tropical Storm Soulik toward Iwo To.

Typhoon Doksuri Near Landfall in Vietnam, Talim Threatens Japan

Typhoon Doksuri neared a landfall in Vietnam on Thursday night while Typhoon Talim posed a threat to Japan.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri intensified rapidly as approached the coast of Vietnam on Thursday.  An eye appeared that the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out over 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Doksuri will make landfall on the coast of Vietnam between Ky Anh and Hoa Lac in a few hours.  Doksuri will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding.   Winds blowing toward the coast will cause a significant storm surge of ten feet (three meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Heavy rain will fall over parts of Laos and Thailand when Doksuri moves farther inland.

Typhoon Talim weakened as it stalled southwest of Japan on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 500 miles (800 km) southwest of Nagasaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Talim appeared to pull drier air in around the southern side of the circulation.  Little movement of Typhoon Talim may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  The drier and and cooler water caused many of the thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  An upper level trough will approach Talim from the west and the trough will start to steer Talim toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu within 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim Strengthens West of Okinawa, Doksuri Moves Closer to Vietnam

Powerful Typhoon Talim strengthened west of Okinawa on Wednesday, while Typhoon Doksuri moved closer toward Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) west of Okinawa.  Talim was moving toward north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Talim evolved into a large powerful typhoon on Wednesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Talim.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Talim.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were producing upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak over the core of Talim, but there are stronger westerly winds north of the typhoon.  Talim could strengthen some more during the next 24 hours.  However, the stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear on Friday and the typhoon will start to weaken when that happens.

Typhoon Talim is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the typhoon toward the north-northwest.  Typhoon Talim will move north on Thursday as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  The westerly winds north of Talim will turn the typhoon toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation of Doksuri became much more organized on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolved around the core of Doksuri.  Thunderstorms round the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Doksuri will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over eastern Asia is producing easterly winds which are causing some vertical wind shear over Doksuri.  The wind shear may slow intensification, but it will not stop it.

The ridge north of Doksuri is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Doksuri is forecast to pass south of Hainan Island.  Typhoon Doksuri could approach the coast of Vietnam in a little over 24 hours.  Doksuri could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Typhoon Talim Nears Ryuku Islands

Typhoon Talim neared the Ryukyu Islands late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Talim on Tuesday.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The entire circulation became much more circular and symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Talim is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not as strong as the were 24 hours ago and the vertical wind shear has decreased.  Typhoon Talim is likely to intensify further during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Talim is expected to turn toward the north as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  In 24 to 48 hours Talim will begin to be affected by westerly winds from the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Talim to turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim will move across the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  It looks like the center and strongest part of Typhoon Talim will move between Ishigaki and Okinawa.  Typhoon Talim will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The core of Typhoon Talim is forecast to pass west of Okinawa before it turns northeast toward the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere in Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Doksuri was slowly intensifying as it moved west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Doksuri became more organized on Tuesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center or circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence.  Tropical Storm Doksuri will be moving through a favorable environment.  Doksuri will move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and through and area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is likely to intensify and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to continue moving  toward the west.  On its anticipated track Doksuri could be near Hainan Island in 48 hours and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.