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Typhoon Doksuri Near Landfall in Vietnam, Talim Threatens Japan

Typhoon Doksuri neared a landfall in Vietnam on Thursday night while Typhoon Talim posed a threat to Japan.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 107.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri intensified rapidly as approached the coast of Vietnam on Thursday.  An eye appeared that the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out over 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Doksuri will make landfall on the coast of Vietnam between Ky Anh and Hoa Lac in a few hours.  Doksuri will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding.   Winds blowing toward the coast will cause a significant storm surge of ten feet (three meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Heavy rain will fall over parts of Laos and Thailand when Doksuri moves farther inland.

Typhoon Talim weakened as it stalled southwest of Japan on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 124.5°E which put it about 500 miles (800 km) southwest of Nagasaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Typhoon Talim appeared to pull drier air in around the southern side of the circulation.  Little movement of Typhoon Talim may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  The drier and and cooler water caused many of the thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation.  Strong thunderstorms were still occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  An upper level trough will approach Talim from the west and the trough will start to steer Talim toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu within 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim Strengthens West of Okinawa, Doksuri Moves Closer to Vietnam

Powerful Typhoon Talim strengthened west of Okinawa on Wednesday, while Typhoon Doksuri moved closer toward Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) west of Okinawa.  Talim was moving toward north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Talim evolved into a large powerful typhoon on Wednesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Talim.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Talim.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were producing upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak over the core of Talim, but there are stronger westerly winds north of the typhoon.  Talim could strengthen some more during the next 24 hours.  However, the stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear on Friday and the typhoon will start to weaken when that happens.

Typhoon Talim is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the typhoon toward the north-northwest.  Typhoon Talim will move north on Thursday as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  The westerly winds north of Talim will turn the typhoon toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation of Doksuri became much more organized on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolved around the core of Doksuri.  Thunderstorms round the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Doksuri will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over eastern Asia is producing easterly winds which are causing some vertical wind shear over Doksuri.  The wind shear may slow intensification, but it will not stop it.

The ridge north of Doksuri is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Doksuri is forecast to pass south of Hainan Island.  Typhoon Doksuri could approach the coast of Vietnam in a little over 24 hours.  Doksuri could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Typhoon Talim Nears Ryuku Islands

Typhoon Talim neared the Ryukyu Islands late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Talim on Tuesday.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The entire circulation became much more circular and symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Talim is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not as strong as the were 24 hours ago and the vertical wind shear has decreased.  Typhoon Talim is likely to intensify further during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Talim is expected to turn toward the north as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  In 24 to 48 hours Talim will begin to be affected by westerly winds from the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Talim to turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim will move across the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  It looks like the center and strongest part of Typhoon Talim will move between Ishigaki and Okinawa.  Typhoon Talim will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The core of Typhoon Talim is forecast to pass west of Okinawa before it turns northeast toward the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere in Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Doksuri was slowly intensifying as it moved west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Doksuri became more organized on Tuesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center or circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence.  Tropical Storm Doksuri will be moving through a favorable environment.  Doksuri will move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and through and area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is likely to intensify and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to continue moving  toward the west.  On its anticipated track Doksuri could be near Hainan Island in 48 hours and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.

Typhoon Talim Develops East of Taiwan

Typhoon Talim developed east of Taiwan on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of the circulation of Typhoon Talim became more organized on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eyewall appeared to be forming.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the center of the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is generating easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds are generating moderate wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but they are not strong enough to prevent Typhoon Talim from getting stronger.

A subtropical ridge north of Talim is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan within 36 to 48 hours.  Talim could be a stronger typhoon by the time it reaches that area.  In two or three days Typhoon Talim will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and the typhoon will turn toward the northeast.

Elsewhere in the Western North Pacific Tropical Depression 21W formed east of the Philippines.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 21W was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  It was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (64 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The depression will bring locally heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines and it could cause flash floods in some locations.

Super Typhoon Chaba Threatens Japan and South Korea

Super Typhoon Chaba moved north on Monday and it threatened to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Japan and South Korea.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Super Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 126.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west-northwest of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chaba is a compact well organized storm.  It has a clear circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Typhoon Chaba.  Thunderstorms at the core of Chaba are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chaba is 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.9.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Chaba is stronger, but slightly smaller than Hurricane Matthew which is over the Caribbean Sea.

Although Typhoon Chaba is still in a very favorable environment, it has probably peaked in intensity.  Chaba was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier today.  Chaba is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  In about a day or so, Chaba will move over cooler SSTs.  In addition, when Chaba moves farther north it will move closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  A combination of cooler SSTs and more vertical wind shear will increase the rate at which Typhoon Chaba will weaken.

Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the north.  That general motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  In about a day or so the westerly winds of the middle latitudes are expected to turn Chaba quickly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chaba will pass west of the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Chaba could be near Jeju, South Korea and western Kyushu in 24 hours.

Chaba is a very strong typhoon.  Although it will weaken, Typhoon Chaba will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of South Korea and Japan.

Powerful Typhoon Chaba Passing South of Okinawa

Powerful Typhoon Chaba is passing south of Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 127.3°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Chaba is very well organized.  Chaba has a distinct circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Other rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the north of Typhoon Chaba.

Typhoon Chaba is moving through a very favorable environment.  Chaba is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba could intensify a little more during the next 12 to 24 hours.  When Chaba moves farther north, an upper level trough over eastern China will cause more vertical wind shear.  Increased wind shear and cooler SSTs will weaken the typhoon.

Typhoon Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  Chaba will gradually start to move more toward the north.  In about 36 hours the upper level trough over eastern China will begin to steer Typhoon Chaba toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chaba will move through the Ryukyu Islands southwest of Okinawa during the next 24 hours.  Chaba would be southwest of Kyushu in about 36 hours.

Chaba is a powerful typhoon and it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.

Typhoon Chaba Rapidly Intensifies Into the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Chaba intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Chaba was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 131.0°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

The organization of the circulation of Typhoon Chaba improved significantly on Saturday.  It has a small circular eye which is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Another primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the typhoon.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Chaba produced strong upper level divergence which pumped out enough mass to allow the pressure at the surface to decrease very rapidly during the past 24 hours.

Typhoon Chaba will continue to move in an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Chaba should continue to intensify for another 24 hours and it could reach major typhoon status.

Typhoon Chaba is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Chaba should start to move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Chaba could reach Okinawa in about 36 hours.  It will be a powerful typhoon when it moves through the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Chaba Organizes and Moves Toward Okinawa

Tropical Storm Chaba strengthened on Thursday as it started to move toward Okinawa.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Chaba was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 138.6°E which put it about 1145 miles (1850 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Chaba was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Chaba showed signs of better organization on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and south sides of the circulation.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were forming on the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Chaba.  Thunderstorms near the core of Chaba were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the west, south and east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Chaba is moving into an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Chaba is generating easterly winds which are blowing across the northern portion of the tropical storm.  However, those winds are not causing significant vertical wind shear.  The combination of warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear should allow Tropical Storm Chaba to intensify steadily during the next several days.  It could become a typhoon within 24 to 48 hours.  There is a chance that Chaba could become the equivalent of a major hurricane in three or four days.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Chaba is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue in the short term.  When Chaba gets a little closer to the western end of the ridge, it will start to move toward the northwest and when Chaba reaches the western end of the ridge it will turn toward the north.  On it anticipated track Tropical Storm Chaba could be approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyu islands in about three days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Storm Chaba Forms East of Guam

A center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms east of Guam on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Chaba.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Chaba was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 147.7°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) east of Guam.  Chaba was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Chaba is still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  There are more thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  Additional thunderstorms are forming west of the center of circulation and some rainbands are developing.  The thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Storm Chaba are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass out in all directions.

Tropical Storm Chaba is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not significant vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chaba is likely to continue to intensify as the circulation gets better organized.  Chaba could become a typhoon later this week.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Chaba is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  When Tropical Storm Chaba moves farther west, it will get closer to the western end of the subtropical ridge and Chaba is likely to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Chaba will move through the Marianas between Guam and Saipan and Tinian on Wednesday.  Chaba could be approaching Okinawa in about five days.

Typhoon Dujan Making Landfall in China

Typhoon Dujuan moved across Taiwan on Monday and it is currently making another landfall on the east coast of China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 118.6°E which put it near Putian, China.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 m.p.h.) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Dujuan brought strong winds and heavy rain when it moved across Taiwan.  It weakened as the center moved over the mountains on Taiwan, but its large size and intensity allow Dujuan to survive.  Dujuan was still a typhoon as it moved into the coast of eastern China near Putian.  It could produce heavy rainfall and flooding as it moves inland.  Dujuan should spin down gradually during the next few days as it moves farther into eastern China.