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Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Develops near Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine developed near Mozambique on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 17.7°S and longitude 40.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Angoche, Mozambique. Jasmine was moving toward the south-southeast at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A tropical depression over the western Mozambique Channel strengthened on Saturday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Jasmine’s circulation that were over the water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine were mostly over land and those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. The winds in the northern half of Jasmine were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. There will be less friction when the western half of Jasmine’s circulation moves over the Mozambique Channel. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is likely to get stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move away from the coast of Mozambique during the next 24 hours. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain over northern Mozambique will diminish when Jasmine moves farther away.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens East of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken east of Rodrigues on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 71.1°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the east at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to weaken over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues during the weekend. An upper level trough east of Madagascar was producing strong westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Habana. Those winds were creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was the main factor causing Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Habana. Bands of shower and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain in an environment that will cause it to weaken during the next several days. The upper level trough continue to create moderate vertical wind shear. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the wind shear will be too strong and it will prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to continue to weaken gradually.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through a region where two weather systems will compete to steer it. The westerly winds in the upper levels will try to push Habana toward the east. A high pressure system in the lower levels will try to push Habana toward the west. The upper level trough could push Tropical Cyclone Habana slowly toward the east during the next 12 to 24 hours. When Habana weakens further, the circulation will not extend as high into the atmosphere. So, the high pressure system in the lower levels will push Tropical Cyclone Habana toward the west during the upcoming week. On its anticipated track Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 20.0°S and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana weakened gradually over the South Indian Ocean on Friday. The temperature at the top of the clouds was not as cold, which indicated that the clouds were not rising as high in the atmosphere. Even though Habana was weakening it still was a very well organized tropical cyclone. There was an eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms around the core of generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana increased slightly in size. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment that will gradually become less favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next several day. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. An upper level trough east of Madagascar will move toward Tropical Cyclone Habana. The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of Habana. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and the shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the south during the next 24 hours. Then the high will strengthen and start to steer Habana toward the west again later in the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana could be southeast of Rodrigues in a next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 75.1°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Wednesday. Microwave satellite images revealed the existence of concentric eyewalls in the middle of Habana. The small original eye and eyewall was surrounded by a larger outer eye. The strongest winds were still occurring in the smaller inner eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.

The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. However, the size of the overall circulation around Habana remained small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The formation of concentric eyewalls is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Habana to weaken at least temporarily when the inner eyewall with the strongest winds dissipates. Habana could strengthen again if the outer eyewall being to contract.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will remain far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to still be east of Rodrigues during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Moves West

Tropical Cyclone Habana moved west over the South Indian Ocean on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 77.7°E which put it about 950 miles (1500 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana strengthened on Tuesday as it moved westward over the South Indian Ocean. A small circular eye was evident again on infrared and microwave satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Habana generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 25.4.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Habana is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Since the circulation around Habana is so small, the intensity could change rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Habana toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Expected to Move Westward

Tropical Cyclone Habana is expected to move westward during the upcoming week. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to be the equivalent of a major hurricane. A small circular eye reappeared at the center of Habana on infrared satellite images on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next several days. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since the core of Habana is so small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. In that case an eyewall replacement cycle would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Habana.

A high pressure system located south of Tropical Cyclone Habana will strengthen during the next few days. That high pressure system will become the dominant weather system steering Habana. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Tropical Cyclone Habana back toward the west. On its anticipated track Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iman was speeding away from La Reunion on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 58.5°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iman Brings Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Iman brought rain to La Reunion and Mauritius on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southwest of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened on Saturday after it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar and Meteo France la Reunion designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Iman. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Iman was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Iman. Bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone consisted of primarily of showers and thunderstorms. Storms east of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Iman brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion and Mauritius. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

An upper level trough south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Iman toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iman will move quickly away to the southeast of La Reunion and Mauritius. Weather conditions in those locations will improve on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Iman will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Iman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Iman. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, powerful Tropical Cyclone Habana maintained its intensity south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 79.2°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.1.