Tag Archives: 27S

Tropical Cyclone Mangga Brings Wind and Rain to Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Mangga brought wind and rain to Cocos Island on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 97.6°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cocos Island.  Mangga was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga passed southwest of Cocos Island on Friday.  The circulation around Mangga was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) to the northeast of the center of circulation.  A weather station on Cocos Island reported a sustained wind speed of 27 m.p.h. (43 km/h) and a wind gust of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h).  The station measured 1.25 inches (32 mm) of rain during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mangga did not appear to be well organized.  There were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center or circulation.  Bands near the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring to the southeast of the low level center of circulation.  The thunderstorms appeared to be associated with a circulation in the middle and upper troposphere.  Those thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Mangga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  However, an upper level ridge northwest of Australia and an upper level trough west of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear is likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification of the current low level center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga.  It is possible that the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere could cause a new low level center to form.  If a new center forms where the thunderstorms and upper level divergence are occurring, then some intensification might be possible.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Mangga quickly toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Mangga could reach the coast of Western Australia in less than 36 hours.  Mangga could produce winds to tropical storm force along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga Develops Northwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Mangga developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of the Cocos Islands on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mangaa was located at latitude 9.4°S and longitude 93.1°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) northwest of Cocos Island.  Mangga was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (12 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the Cocos Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga developed within a trough of low pressure that extended from southwest of Indonesia to western Australia.  The trough had persisted for several days and a center of low pressure gradually formed northwest of the Cocos Islands during the past 24 hours.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mangga on Thursday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mangga was still in the process of organizing.  The strongest thunderstorms were in a band on the western side of the circulation.  Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms began to develop near the center of circulation on Thursday.  Storms developing near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Mangga.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Mannga will move over water where the Sea Surface temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over Indonesia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear may be the reason why the bands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Mangga are weaker.  The shear will also inhibit intensification, but it will probably not be strong enough to prevent Manga from strengthening during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mangga will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered north of Australia.  The high will steer Mangga toward the southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mangga will pass near the Cocos Islands in about 24 hours.  Manga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann formed over the Coral Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 875 miles (1410 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation became more evident in satellite images of a low pressure system over the eastern Coral Sea on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Ann.  A rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  A microwave satellite image indicated that the band may have wrapped completely around the center in the middle levels of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation in the southern half of Ann.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Ann toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 72 hours.  Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Elsewhere around the tropics in the southern hemisphere, Tropical Cyclone Lili was weakening near the coast of East Timor.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Suai, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.