Tag Archives: Acapulco

Powerful Hurricane Hector Approaches Central Pacific, Ileana Forms South of Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Hector approached the Central Pacific Ocean on Sunday while Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed south of Mexico.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast because of the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Ileana.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Hector was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 138.6°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of South Point, Hawaii.  Hector was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector was very well organized.  There was a circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hector.  Storms in the core of Hector were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation of Hurricane Hector remained compact.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Hector was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9,9 and The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2.

Hurricane Hector will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong hurricane during the next day or two.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C and 28°C.  Hector will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  An eyewall replacement cycle could occur if a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  It would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Hector.

Hurricane Hector will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Hurricane Hector toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Hector will be southeast of Hawaii in about three days.

Tropical Storm Ileana developed south of Mexico on Sunday.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed west of Tropical Storm Ileana on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

There is uncertainty about the future interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Tropical Depression Twelve-E.  The circulation of Tropical Depression Twelve-E is much larger than the circulation of Tropical Storm Ileana.  In addition, upper level divergence form the depression could cause vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Ileana.  In one possible scenario Tropical Storm Ileana moves toward Tropical Depression Twelve-E and it is absorbed by the larger circulation.  Another possibility is that Tropical Storm Ileana moves around the eastern periphery of the circulation of the tropical depression,  The second scenario would bring Tropical Storm Ileana close to the west coast of Mexico which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.

TD 4E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlotta south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico.

A single, distinct center of circulation developed in Tropical Depression Four-E on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  It is possible that the mountains in Mexico deflected the circulation in the lower levels and contributed to the improved organization of Tropical Storm Carlotta.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms developed east and south of the core of Carlotta.  Other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence and Carlotta looked like a tropical storm on satellite images.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain in an environment favorable for intensification while the center is over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak in that area and there is little vertical wind shear.  Carlotta could strengthen further during the next 12 hours.  When the center nears the coast of Mexico, the circulation could begin to pull in drier air from over the land.  If that happens, then Tropical Storm Carlotta could start to weaken even before the center officially makes landfall.

The steering winds are weak around Tropical Storm Carlotta.  A trough in the lower levels is moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it appears to be pulling Carlotta slowly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will reach the coast of Mexico in 12 to 18 hours.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to make landfall east of Acapulco.  Carlotta will produce some gusty winds but the greater risks are heavy rain and flash floods.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Bud is moving over the Gulf of California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Bud could drop heavy rain and cause flash floods in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.

Tropical Storm Bud Brings Wind & Rain to Baja California, New Depression Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Bud brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja Calfornia on Tuesday while a new tropical depression formed south of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  The government of Mexico issued new Tropical Storm Watches for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Rainbands on the northern side of the circulation of Tropical Storm Bud were producing winds to tropical storm force over the southern end of Baja California.  New thunderstorms began to form when a band north and east of the center of circulation moved over the southern part of the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Gulf is near 27°C which is warmer than the water of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  The additional energy from the ocean may have contributed to the formation of the new storms.

A trough in the upper levels is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Bud toward the north-northeast during the next several days,  Bud could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours if the center of circulation passes southeast of Baja California.  If the center passes over Baja, the mountains would disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Bud would weaken.  In either case Tropical Storm Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California for another day or so.  Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico later on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 100.1°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Because of the proximity to the coast the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The circulation was still organizing.  Several fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation.  The center of circulation was broad and there were several smaller cyclonic rotations swirling around inside the broader center.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The proximity to the coast will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification.  The circulation could pull in drier air from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge, but the steering currents are likely to be weak.  The depression is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the coast during the weekend.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Ramon Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Ramon formed south of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 96.5°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) south of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  Ramon was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Ramon is not well organized.  The distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  A large upper level ridge centered over the Western Gulf of Mexico is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating significant vertical wind shear and the shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification.  Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause significant vertical wind shear, which will inhibit strengthening.  In addition Tropical Storm Ramon will move close to the coast of Mexico and interaction with land will further inhibit intensification.  If Tropical Storm Ramon survives the strong shear until it moves farther away from Mexico, then it might strengthen.  If Ramon moves closer to the coast or inland, then it is likely to weaken quickly.

Tropical Storm Ramon is moving south of a ridge which is steering it toward the west-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ramon could pass very close to the coast of Mexico, which is why the Tropical Storm Watch was issued.  Even if the center of Ramon remains south of the coast, the northern part of the circulation could produce locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods exists.

Max Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane Near Acapulco

Tropical Storm Max intensified rapidly into a hurricane on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Max was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km/h) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Max was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Zihuatenajo to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Laguas de Chacahua, Mexico.

The circulation of Hurriane Max is quite small.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  Although the circulation of Hurricane Max is small, it is very well organized.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.

The center of Hurricane Max is very close to the coast of Mexico.  The outer fringes of the northwestern part of the circulation could already be pulling in some drier air.  Max will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within a few hours and it will start to dissipate as soon as the center make landfall.

The core of Hurricane Max will be capable of causing localized wind damage.  Max will also drop very heavy rain over parts of the states or Guerrero and Oaxaca and flash floods could occur in some areas of steeper terrain.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Norma formed to the west of Hurricane Max.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 395 miles (635 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Norma was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  Tropical Storm Norma is forecast to strengthen and move toward Baja California.  Normal could be a hurricane when it approaches southern Baja California in a few days.

Marty Intensifies and Mexico Issues a Tropical Storm Watch

Tropical Storm Marty intensified on Sunday and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the west coast.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 102.8°W which put it about 235 miles (380 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Marty was moving toward the north-northeast at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

The structure of Tropical Storm Marty improved on Sunday morning.  A long rainband stretched around the southern and eastern sides of the circulation and more thunderstorms developed near the center or circulation.  Marty is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C, which means there is a lot of energy in the upper ocean.  However, an upper level trough extends from the western Gulf of Mexico across northern Mexico.  The upper level trough is causing westerly winds, which could already be producing vertical wind shear over the northern half of the circulation of Tropical Storm Marty.  Very warm SSTs mean that the potential for intensification exists, but the vertical wind shear will limit how much intensification actually occurs.  If the upper level winds get stronger, they could shear the top half of the circulation away from the bottom half and cause Marty to dissipate.

The upper level trough is beginning to steer Marty toward the north-northeast and the tropical storm is likely to move in that direction over the short term.  The ultimate track of Marty will be determined by the vertical integrity of the circulation and the strength of the vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear is not too strong and the upper and lower portions of the circulation remain together, then the trough will steer all of Marty toward the northeast.  In that case it could make landfall on the Mexican coast in several days.  However, if the vertical wind shear blows then top off of the circulation, then the upper level portion will move northeast toward Mexico, while the lower part of the tropical storm is left behind.  The upper half of the circulation could still bring heavy rain and the potential for floods to parts of Mexico, even if the surface circulation does not make landfall.