Tag Archives: Agrihan

Typhoon Jebi Intensifies Rapidly East of Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi intensified rapidly east of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Marianas.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and it was symmetrical.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment very favorable for further intensification.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Jebi is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday.

Typhoon Jebi will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific for several more days.  The ridge will steer Jebi in a general westerly direction during that time.  Typhoon Jebi will reach the western end of the ridge in about 48 hours.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north when it reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will reach the northernmost Mariana Islands within 24 hours.  Jebi will be capable of causing major damage when it arrives.  Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To, but it will turn toward the major islands of Japan during the weekend.

Large Typhoon Soulik Nears Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Brushes Northern Marianas

Large Typhoon Soulik neared the Ryukyu Islands on Monday night, while Typhoon Cimaron brushed the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 131.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Yaku Shima, Japan.  Soulik was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A large circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Soulik.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds around the core Soulik were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Soulik has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Soulik was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.1.

The large symmetrical structure of Typhoon Soulik will allow it to maintain its intensity for a longer period than a smaller tropical cyclone.  Soulik will move through an environment during the next 24 to 36 hours that will support a strong typhoon.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an environment where the vertical wind shear will not be too strong.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of ridge centered north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  Soulik could approach South Korea within 36 hours.

Typhoon Cimaron brushed the northernmost Mariana Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Agrihan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to be near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Cimaron could approach Honshu within 48 hours.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik is inhibiting the divergence on the western side of Cimaron.  The effects of Soulik will reduce the potential intensification of Typhoon Cimaron, but Cimaron could strengthen slowly during the next day or two.

Typhoon Soulik Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands, Cimaron Approaches Northern Marianas

Typhoon Soulik moved toward the northern Ryukyu Islands on Sunday and Typhoon Cimaron approached the Northern Mariana Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 135.8°E which put it about 450 miles (730 km) east-southeast of Yaku Shima.  Soulik was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The structure of Typhoon Soulik changed on Sunday.  A large circular eye with a diameter or 45 miles (75 km) developed at the center of circulation.  A circular ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The ring was thinner on the western side of the eye and there may have been breaks in the ring.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Soulik.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity for another day or two.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Japan will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the typhoon, but the winds will not cause significant vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Soulik could weaken a little, but it is likely to maintain most of its strength for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of the ridge north of Japan.  The ridge will steer Soulik toward the northwest for another 36 to 48 hours.  When Soulik reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Soulik could reach the northern Ryukyu Islands in about 36 hours.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, Almagan.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Saipan and Tinian.

Typhoon Cimaron will move through an environment that could allow it to intensify during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik could inhibit the divergence generated by Cimaron on the northern side of the circulation.  Typhoon Cimaron is likely to intensify during the next day or two,

Typhoon Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Cimaron toward the northwest during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Cimaron will move over the Northern Marianas during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cimaron could reach Iwo To within 48 hours and it could be south of Honshu in about three days.

Tropical Storm Cimaron Prompts Warnings for Northern Marianas, Soulik Strengthens West of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Cimaron developed east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and it prompted Typhoon Warnings for some of the islands, while Typhoon Soulik strengthened west of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cimaron was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 151.6°E which put it about 420 miles (675 km) east of Saipan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Almagan.

A distinct center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Cimaron.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around the circulation of Tropical Storm Cimaron.  The rainbands west and south of the center of circulation were stronger than the bands east and north of the center.  An inner bands of thunderstorms started to wrap around the south side of the center.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Cimaron will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move through an area where it will be near the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik.  Tropical Storm Cimaron is forecast to stay just southeast of the divergence from Soulik.  If it does that, Cimaron will strengthen into a typhoon during the next few days.  However, if Cimaron moves under the upper level divergence from Typhoon Soulik, then the vertical wind shear will keep Cimaron from strengthening.

Typhoon Soulik strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane west of Iwo To on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) west-northwest of Iwo To.  Soulik was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Soulik is well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Soulik.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center.

Typhoon Soulik will move through an area favorable for strong typhoons.  Soulik will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Soulik could maintain its intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Soulik will move around the western end of a ridge in the middle troposphere.  The ridge will steer Soulik in a general northwesterly direction.  On it anticipated track Typhoon Soulik will move toward the Ryukyu Islands.  Tropical Storm Cimaron will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  On its anticipated track, Cimaron will move near the northern Marianas in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Storm Cimaron could approach Iwo To in about three days.

Shanshan Strengthens to a Typhoon Southeast of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Shanshan strengthened into a typhoon southeast of Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Agrihan.  Shashan was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was developing at the center of Typhoon Shanshan.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Shanshan.  The strongest rainbands were south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Shanshan has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Shanshan will pass east of Iwo To in 24 to 36 hours.  Shanshan could be just southeast of Honshu in about four days.

Tropical Storm Sanvu Forms Over Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Sanvu formed over the northern Marianas on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sanvu was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 146.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north-northeast of Agrihan.  Sanvu was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Sanvu developed when a distinct center of circulation formed within a much larger area of low pressure over the northern Marianas.  The circulation of Sanvu is still in the early stages of consolidation around the center.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  The bands in the northern half of the circulation were weaker.  The showers and thunderstorms south of the center were beginning to generate some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Sanvu will be moving through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Sanvu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  Sanvu is under the axis of a narrow upper level ridge and the winds over the southern half of the circulation are fairly weak.  There is little vertical wind shear over that part of the tropical storm.  An upper level trough north of the ridge is producing stronger winds over that half of the circulation.  The stronger winds may be responsible for the lack of strong rainbands in the northern half of Sanvu.  The trough is forecast to move east and the shear in that region should decrease.  When the shear decreases Sanvu could intensify at a faster rate and it is forecast to become a typhoon in two or three days.

The trough is currently steering Tropical Storm Sanvu slowly toward the north-northeast.  When the trough moves away to the east a ridge if forecast to steer Sanvu more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sanvu will gradually move away from the northern Marianas and the weather should improve in that region.

Tropical Storm Krovanh Organizing Quickly Near Northern Marianas

The circulation around Tropical Storm Krovanh is organizing quickly as it passes near the northern Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Krovanh was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east-northeast of Agrihan in the northern Mariana Islands.  Krovanh was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in the northern Marianas.

The circulation near the center of Krovanh organized quickly on Tuesday.  A primary spiral rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center and an eyelike feature has appeared intermittently on visible satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands are developing around the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the core of the tropical storm are producing upper level outflow in all directions which is pumping out mass and is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Krovanh is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper levels winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is likely.  Krovanh could become a typhoon within 24 hours and it could be a strong typhoon within several days.

A subtropical ridge located northeast of Krovanh is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  That general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  After that time Krovanh will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Krovanh will pass through the extreme northern Marianas on Wednesday and it be approaching Iwo To in about 48 hours.  Krovanh could be a strong typhoon at that time.